Statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population. Statistical study of expenses and incomes of the population

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal Agency for Education GOU VPO

All-Russian Correspondence Financial and Economic Institute

Department of Automated Processing

economic information

COURSE WORK

on statistics on the topic:

Statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population

Chelyabinsk-2009

Introduction ………………………………………………………………………… ... 3

I Theoretical part ………………………………………………………… ..5

1.1 The concept of consumer demand of the population and sources of information ... .5

1.2 Indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population …………………… ..8

1.3 Demand Elasticity Ratio and Use in Forecasting11

1.4 Subsistence minimum and minimum consumer budget …… .13

II Calculation part …………………………………………………………… ..16

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 29

References…. ……………………………………………………… ..30

Introduction.

The relevance of the topic is expressed in the fact that income indicators of the population reflect the potential for meeting its needs for goods and services. The use of these incomes for the purchase of goods and services. Therefore, the study of expenditures occupies one of the central places in the statistics of the living standards of the population.

The study of consumption and its impact on human development is a global problem on a global scale. International organizations recognize that the consumption of goods and services has a huge impact on the life of the population and serves as a means of human development. Consumption promotes human empowerment. In addition, consumption is a means of individual participation in the life of society.

The purpose of the study of consumption is to highlight the different types of consumption and the factors that determine them. The mobility of the consumption structure depends on the interchangeability of goods and services with the same consumer purpose, but different costs. This enables households with budget constraints to select a range of goods and services to better meet their needs.

In the theoretical part of this course work, the concept of consumer demand of the population and sources of information, indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population, the coefficient of elasticity of demand and use in forecasting and the cost of living and the minimum consumer budget will be considered.

In the computational part, the following tasks are considered:

Study of structure and totality;

Revealing the presence of a correlation between the signs, establishing its direction and changes in tightness;

Application of the sampling method in financial and economic problems;

A system of interrelated indices and arithmetic mean indices.

To complete this course work, Microsoft Office Word and Excel are used.

ITheoretical part

1.1 The concept of consumer demand of the population and sources of information.

To meet the increased demands of the population for the range, the quality of goods, trade organizations, enterprises, companies, firms need a comprehensive study of consumer demand.

Consumer demand is an economic category that expresses the unity of the needs of the population and funds for their purchase.

In other words, demand is a social need, limited by the purchasing power of the population.

Comprehensive accounting of consumer demand is a prerequisite for the functioning of both state and other forms of ownership of commercial trade organizations, enterprises, companies, firms. Without a systematic study of demand, it is impossible to successfully solve the problems of meeting the needs of the population, economic and social organizations in products.

The volume and structure of consumer demand depend on a large number of different factors: the volume and structure of the production of goods and the provision of services, incomes of the population, climatic and geographical conditions of life, the size of the population and its composition, the nature of labor in which the population is employed, on the level of education, fashion, national factors, etc.

Sources and methods of collecting customer demand information are diverse. Information is considered to be information that is the object of processing, transmission and storage. Demand studies do not involve all the information, but only those that are used at any level of government to make business decisions.

A variety of information is needed to study demand and forecast it: economic, demographic, social, etc.

Demand studies use categories of information such as primary and secondary.

Primary information is such facts that are not freely available and which therefore require considerable initiative and effort on the part of those studying consumer demand.

When collecting primary information, the following methods are usually used:

· Survey method;

· Method of observation;

· Experimental method.

Polling method. Because surveys are relatively inexpensive, they can be used to clarify a wide range of problems. Currently, this is the most common way to collect primary information. The point of the survey method is to get answers to specific questions through face-to-face interviews, telephone interviews, or questionnaires sent by mail.

One variant of the survey method that can be very useful for a merchant in studying customer demand is the semantic differential. A fairly simple research method that can be used to find out the points of view of buyers about objects, concepts or things.

Observation method. This method involves observing people's behavior, their facial expressions, and the movements they make when responding to something offered to them. The main disadvantage is that we can only observe behavior, but we cannot know what is going on in people's heads.

Experimental method. This method consists in setting up a large-scale experiment under well controlled circumstances. Unlike others, based on the analysis of data on the state of demand, the experimental method is designed to test in practice the viability of a new product for the market and to work out the technique of its marketing.

Secondary information means facts that are available, although their refinement requires some effort. To use secondary information, you need to find its source.

When collecting secondary information, consider the following:

1) the reliability of the source of information;

2) the possibility of error on the part of the collecting agent and the possibility of data falsification;

3) the relevance of the "freshness" of information;

4) the applicability of information to problem solving.

The most fruitful sources for solving business problems are enterprise reporting and government statistics.

1.2 Indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population.

The most important place in the system of indicators of the population's standard of living is occupied by the characteristics of the consumption of goods and services by the population. Comparison of indicators of the total volume of consumption of goods and services in value terms, the structure and dynamics of consumption, the level of consumption of certain types of goods and services, the degree of satisfaction of needs in the regional aspect makes it possible to identify the features of the level and structure of consumption by the population of a particular region, to study the influence of factors shaping consumption ...

The total volume of consumption of goods and services by the population represents their full value, including paid, preferential and free goods and services received by the population from wages, property income, receipts from the financial system and public consumption funds. The volume of consumption of goods and services in value terms is determined both in current and in comparable prices.

To characterize the consumption of certain types of goods and services, indicators of the volume of consumption in physical terms are used.

The structure of goods and services consumed by the population includes:

Food;

Non-grocery goods;

The level of consumption of goods and services characterizes the average consumption of goods and services per capita, which is calculated as the ratio of the volume of consumption of goods and services per year to the average annual population of the regions:

For certain types of goods and services

For total consumption

where, q is the amount of consumption for certain types of goods and services;

qp is the total consumption of goods and services;

Average annual population.

The level of consumption of goods and services in the regions is calculated on average per capita and for certain age and gender and social groups.

Differentiation of per capita consumption is determined by the influence of demographic, socio-economic factors, the difference in cultural, household, natural and climatic conditions, national traditions, regional features of the development of industries serving the population.

When comparing the level of consumption of goods and services in different regions, it is advisable to use a relative indicator of consumption - the coefficient of satisfaction of needs, which is determined by the ratio of actual satisfaction of consumption to the rational (minimum) consumption rate:

In the context of significant territorial differentiation of food consumption in the regions of the Russian Federation, there is a need for generalized estimates. The methodology for calculating the integral indicator of food consumption can be based on various methods of nonparametric estimation.

Generalizing indicators of the consumption level can serve as a normative basis for an adequate assessment of the quality of life of the population of the regions and making decisions on its regulation.

The dynamics of the volume of consumption of certain types of goods and services is studied using individual indices of the physical volume of consumption:

where, and accordingly, the volume of consumption of a particular type of goods and services in the baseline and reporting period.

The study of the dynamics of consumption for a group of goods, services or total consumption is based on the construction of a general index of the physical volume of consumption:

where, and - the cost of consumed goods and services in the reporting and base periods in comparable prices.

Comparison of the level and structure of consumption in different groups of the population, as well as interregional comparative analysis of generalizing indicators of consumption, serves as an information and methodological basis for the development of special policies in regions with different living standards and other socio-economic indicators.

1.3 The coefficient of elasticity of demand and use in forecasting.

The needs of the population for certain goods and services are distinguished by the degree of their elasticity, i.e. variability under the influence of a number of factors, mainly depending on the amount of income.

The variability of consumption by individual groups of the population under the influence of income is measured by the coefficient of elasticity (flexibility) of consumption. The coefficient of elasticity shows the percentage of change in the average consumption of individual goods, groups of goods under the influence of an increase in average per capita income by 1%.

This coefficient is significantly modified for individual groups of goods. For example, for food products, the human body sets a certain quantitative limit for their consumption. At the same time, the growth of incomes of the population directly affects the structure of food consumption. With a decrease in income, the consumption of plant foods increases, and with an increase, the proportion of consumed protein food increases.

For many non-food products, the sphere of their consumption is much wider and more difficult to define. Part of the difficulty stems from the fact that, when prices change, the flexibility of demand for non-food products is much higher than for food.

To determine the coefficient of elasticity, you need to divide the percentage of increase in consumption of a product per person by the percentage of increase in income per person:

where is the coefficient of elasticity;

or (at 1 - at 0) - an increase in consumption (sale) of this product per person;

y 0 - the volume of sales of this product per person in the previous period;

or (x 1-x 0) - an increase in cash income per person;

x 0 - cash income per person in the previous period.

The coefficient of elasticity of consumption can take the following values.

1. If the coefficient of elasticity is less than 1, then consumption increases more slowly than income. Consequently, this product can be attributed to the group of low elastic, for the cost of purchasing it is reduced (sugar, potatoes, bread, etc.).

2. If the coefficient of elasticity is 1, then consumption changes in proportion to the growth of incomes of the population (fruits, sausages, etc.).

3. If the elasticity coefficient is greater than 1, then in this case consumption outstrips the growth of monetary income and the product will have a high elasticity of demand (furniture, carpets, fabrics, etc.).

The elasticity coefficient can be used to forecast the demand for individual goods. In addition to the elasticity indicator, when forecasting demand, it is necessary to have information about the population size for the future. In these cases, the following formula is used to calculate the projected population size:

where H p - projected population;

H 0 - population size for the current period;

General population growth rate;

p - the number of years between the current date and the planned date.

1.4 Subsistence minimum and minimum consumer budget.

When analyzing consumption, the concept of a consumer basket is currently used, which is a set of food products, non-food products and services intended for the consumption of the population or its individual groups.

Depending on the objects and objectives of the study, various consumer baskets are used: minimal, rational, actual. The minimum consumer basket is the minimum set of food products, non-food products and services necessary to preserve human health and ensure human life. The minimum consumer basket is considered as an admissible lower limit of consumption necessary to ensure normal reproduction of the population.

The real consumer basket is formed on the basis of scientifically developed rational consumption standards that provide for a sufficiently high level of satisfaction of reasonable needs for goods and services, the range of which is much wider than the minimum consumer basket suggests.

The actual consumer basket characterizes the set of goods and services actually consumed by the population or its individual socio-demographic groups.

The value of the minimum, rational, and actual consumer baskets represents the minimum, rational, and actual consumer budgets, respectively. Consumer budgets are generalized indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population.

The subsistence minimum is a valuation of the minimum consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. The definition and purpose of the subsistence minimum is legislatively enshrined in the Federal Law of October 24, 1997 No. 134-F3 "On the subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation." The data on the size of the subsistence minimum are used to solve the following tasks:

1.evaluation of the standard of living of the population in the development and implementation of social policy and state social programs;

2. substantiation of the minimum wage (minimum wage) and the minimum old-age pension established at the federal level, as well as for determining the amount of scholarships, benefits and other social payments;

3. formation of the federal budget.

Calculations of the subsistence minimum and the minimum consumer budget are carried out on the basis of the formation of a minimum set of food products, direct goods and services.

When constructing a minimum set of food products, non-food products and services, the following are taken into account:

2. actual volumes of consumption of food, non-food goods and services in low-income families;

3. socio-economic and demographic factors characterizing the level of income, composition and age and gender structure of the population, size and structure of families, financial capabilities of the state to ensure social protection of the population at the federal and regional levels;

4. objective differences in the consumption of food, non-food goods and services in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, determined by natural and climatic conditions, national traditions and local characteristics.

The minimum consumption packages are compiled for the following socio-demographic groups of the population:

1. able-bodied population - men aged 16-59 years, women aged 16-54 years, with the exception of unemployed disabled persons of groups 1 and 2 in working age;

2. old age and disability pensioners;

3. children aged 0-6 and 7-15 years old.

The minimum set of non-food products is formed from goods for individual and general family use. Individual goods include: clothing, shoes, school supplies for children. Common family goods include bedding, basic necessities, sanitation, medicines, cultural and household goods.

The determination of the minimum set of services is based on the following principles:

1. meeting the needs of the main socio-demographic groups of the population in housing, organization of everyday life, movement;

2. the current level of use of transport services;

3. the paid nature of the services provided.

II Calculation part

Objective 1.

Initial data Table 2.1

Household No.	Average total costs per household member (x)	Average expenditure on food items per household member (y)
1	80	47
2	69	46
3	80	53
4	69	47
5	69	47
6	67	46
7	88	53
7	88	53	8	30	24
9	89	54
10	69	46
11	31	26
12	82	54
13	41	36
14	89	54
15	35	28
16	89	54
17	110	55
18	60	45
19	70	47
20	42	36
21	50	39
22	69	47
23	37	33
24	110	56
25	67	46
26	60	45
27	40	35
28	40	34
29	110	55
30	60	44

Feature - total expenses on average for one household member.

The number of groups is four.

The distribution series is the simplest grouping, which is the distribution of the number of population units by the value of any attribute, in this case, by the attribute, the total expenses per household member on average. In order to make grouping, it is necessary to determine the interval step by the formula:

where i - step interval,

x max and x min - the maximum and minimum values \u200b\u200bof the attribute.

According to the condition of the problem, it is necessary to form five groups (n \u003d 4).

The size of the interval is 20. From here, by adding the size of the interval to the minimum level of the feature in the group, we get the following groups.

Let's define the intervals of the groups:

Working Table 2.2

P / p No.		No. of households
I	30-50	№8	30	24
		№11	31	26
		№13	41	36
		№15	35	28
		№20	42	36
		№21	50	39
		№23	37	33
		№27	40	35
		№28	40	34
	Total for group I	9	346	291
II	50-70	№2	69	46
		№4	69	47
		№5	69	47
		№6	67	46
		№10	69	46
		№18	60	45
		№19	70	47
		№22	69	47
		№25	67	46
		№26	60	45
		№30	60	44
	Total for group II	11	729	506
III	70-90	№1	80	47
		№3	80	53
		№7	88	53
		№9	89	54
		№12	82	54
		№14	89	54
		№16	89	54
	Total for group III	7	597	369
IV	90-110	№17	110	55
		№24	110	56
		№29	110	55
	Total for group IV	3	330	166
TOTAL	30	2002	1332

Based on the worksheet, we build a number of distributions for total expenses on average per one household member, build a graph, determine the fashion and median (Table 2.3):

Distribution series Table 2.3

In the interval variation series, the mode is calculated by the formula:

where x Mo - the lower border of the modal interval;

i x - the size of the modal interval;

f Mo - the frequency of the modal interval;

f Mo -1 - the frequency of the interval before the modal frequency;

f Mo +1 Is the frequency of the interval after the modal frequency.

thousand roubles.

Graphic construction of fashion Figure 1.

In the interval variation series, the median is calculated by the formula:

where x Me - the lower border of the median interval;

i - the value of the median interval;

Half of the total number of observations;

S Me -1 - the sum of observations accumulated before the beginning of the median interval;

f Me Is the frequency of the median interval.

thousand roubles.

Graphical plot of the median Figure 2.

Calculation table for finding the characteristics of the distribution series

Table 2.4

P / p No.	Groups of households by total expenditures on average per household member	Households ( f)	Middle of interval
I	30-50	9	40	360	-22,667	513,793	4624,137
II	50-70	11	60	660	-2,667	7,113	78,243
III	70-90	7	80	560	17,333	300,432	2103,024
IV	90-110	3	100	300	37,333	1393,753	4181,259
TOTAL:	30	-	1880	-	-	10986,885

Weighted arithmetic mean is determined by the formula:

thousand roubles.

Average total expenses per household member on average.

Dispersion:

Standard deviation:

thousand roubles.

The coefficient of variation:

According to the calculated indicators, it follows that the population is homogeneous, the average can be trusted.

Based on the initial data, we calculate the arithmetic mean:

thousand roubles.

The topmost simple one is increased, and the weighted one is calculated with frequencies, therefore discrepancies appear because of them.

Analysis of the data obtained suggests that the groups of households in terms of total expenditures on average per household member differ from the arithmetic mean (\u003d 62.667 thousand rubles) by an average of 19.137 thousand rubles or 30.54%. The value of the coefficient of variation does not exceed 40%; therefore, the average variation in total expenditures per household member is small. Relatively low variability of the trait, typical, reliable average and homogeneous population for total expenditures on average per household member.

Assignment 2

The relationship between the characteristics is the total expenditures and expenditures on food products, on average, per household member.

Solution: The relationship between the characteristics is total expenditures and expenditures on food products, on average, per household member.

Grouping of enterprises by total expenses per household member on average. Table 2.5

P / p No.	Household groups	Households ( f)	Average total expenses per household member		Expenditure on food products, on average, per household member		Return on assets, rub.
P / p No.	Household groups	Households ( f)	Total		Total	On average for 1 household	Return on assets, rub.
I	30-50	9	346	38,44	291	32,33	1,18
II	50-70	11	729	66,27	506	46	1,44
III	70-90	7	597	85,29	369	52,71	0,62
IV	90-110	3	330	110	166	55,33	0,50
TOTAL:	30	2002	66,73	1332	44,4	-

An analysis of Table 2.5 shows that with an increase in total expenditures on average per one household member from group to group, the average expenditure on food products on average per one household member also increases. Therefore, there is a direct correlation between total expenditures and expenditures on food products, on average, per household member.

To determine the tightness of communication, we build a similar grouping:

Calculation of intergroup variance. Table 2.6

P / p No.	Household groups	Households ( f )	Expenditure on food products, on average, per household member ( y )
P / p No.	Household groups	Households ( f )	Total	On average for 1 household
I	30-50	9	291	32,33	-12,07	145,68	1311,12
II	50-70	11	506	46	1,6	2,56	28,16
III	70-90	7	369	52,71	8,31	69,06	483,42
IV	90-110	3	166	55,33	10,93	119,46	358,38
TOTAL:	30	1332	44,4	-	-	2181,08

Determination coefficient: or 89.34%

The variation in expenditures on food products per household member on average by 89.34% depends on the amount of total expenditures per household member on average, the remaining 10.66% are unaccounted for factors.

The tightness of the correlation is considered by the empirical correlation relation:

The connection is close.

Assignment 3

Based on the results of task 1, with a probability of 0.954, determine:

1. The sampling error of the average total expenditures per household member and the boundaries in which it will be located in the general population.

2. The sampling error of the share of households with an average total expenditure per household member of 70 thousand rubles. and more and the boundaries in which the general share will be located.

0,33 -0,170,33+0,17

With a probability of 0.954, it can be stated that the share of households with an average expenditure per household member of 70 thousand rubles. and more will be in the range of not less than 16% and not more than 50%.

Assignment 4

The consumption of goods and services by the population of the region in the reporting year is characterized by the following indicators:

Initial data Table 2.7

Define:

1.General indices:

· Sales of goods and services to the population at current prices;

· Prices (Pasha) for goods and services;

· The physical volume of goods and services.

2.Absolute increase (decrease) in sales of goods and services to the population due to changes in:

· Physical volume;

· Two factors together.

Draw conclusions.

Working Table 2.8

Type of goods and services	Sales volume, million rubles	Indexes of the reporting year to the previous one,%
Type of goods and services	Sales volume, million rubles	Price	Physical volume
Foodstuffs	1230	115	105
Non-grocery goods	620	110	97
Paid services	350 Paid services Conclusion. Consumption is the final stage of the reproductive process, which is reduced to the use of the produced product to meet certain needs. The main tasks of population consumption statistics as the most important the component of his standard of living is associated with the development of the System of indicators of consumption, natural and cost, individual, family and consolidated consumer budgets and the consumer basket, the study of the structure of consumer spending, elasticity and differentiation of consumption, the dynamics of consumption of the population and consumer prices, the purchasing power of money. The main source of statistical information on the financial situation of households is the balance of monetary incomes and expenditures of the population, compiled by the State Statistics Committee of Russia on a quarterly basis and for the whole year. It allows us to characterize the circulation of monetary incomes and expenditures of the population and its individual social and professional groups in direct connection with the circulation of national income of countries. Statistical study of consumption allows not only to form a system of adequate indicators for its assessment, but also to determine territorial and dynamic differences in the consumption of goods and services List of references. 1. Social statistics: Textbook / Edited by I.I. Eliseeva. - 3rd ed. revised and add. –M .: Finance and Statistics. 2001 2. Socio-economic statistics: Textbook / ed. M.R. Efimova - M .: Higher education, 2009 3. Socio-economic statistics: Textbook for universities / Ed. prof. B.I. Bashkatova - M .: UNITY-DANA, 2002 4. Statistics: Textbook. manual / A.V. Bagat, N.M. Konkina, V.M. Smichers. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 2005 5. Socio-economic statistics: Textbook / VN Salin, EP Shpakovskaya. - M .: Jurist, 2001 6. Theory of statistics: Textbook. A manual for universities, Gusarov V.M. - M .: Audit, UNITI, 1998 7. Workshop on statistics: Textbook. manual for universities / Ed. V.M. Simchera / VZFEI. - M .: ZAO Finstatinform, 1999 8. Statistics: Textbook ed. A.M. Godin M-2003; 9. Regional statistics: Textbook ed. Zarovoy E.V. and Chudilina G.I.

Topic: Statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population

University: VZFEI

Introduction 3

Theoretical part 5

Data Sources and Challenges for Social Statistics 5

Characteristics of population expenditures, their types 9

Main indicators and methods of their calculation 12

Calculated part 16

Assignment 1 17

Task 2 22

Quest 3 25

Task 4 27

Analytical part 31

Problem statement 31

Methodology for solving problem 31

Computer calculation technology 32

Analysis of the results of statistical computer calculations 34

Conclusion 36

Bibliography 37

Introduction

In the transition to a market economy, information on income is less reliable than information on spending. This is due to the spread of secondary employment, the presence of unrecorded income from shadow economic activity. The source of covering the expenses of the population in this period can be income, as well as savings that he had at the beginning of the year.

The sources of the study of expenditures, as well as the income of the population, are the balance of monetary incomes and expenditures of the population and data from a sample survey of household budgets.

All expenses of the population are divided into current and capital.

Recurrent costs represent the costs associated with meeting current needs.

Capital expenditures include the cost of acquiring land and fixed assets (housing, industrial buildings, agricultural machinery, equipment for processing agricultural products, etc.).

The accumulation also includes the cost of purchasing durable consumer goods (with a service life of more than a year) and the increase in consumer stocks in households.

The main tasks of statistics of expenditures and consumption of the population are: development of a system of indicators of consumption, natural and cost, individual, family and consolidated consumer budgets and the consumer basket, study of the structure of consumer spending, elasticity and differentiation of consumption, dynamics of population consumption and consumer prices, purchasing power of money.

The purpose of this course work is to study the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population.

To achieve the goal, the following tasks were set to study the directions:

Sources of data and objectives of social statistics;
Characteristics of population expenditures, their types;
Basic indicators and methods of their calculation.

Households are the object of research.

The subject of the study is the expenditures and consumption of the population.

The calculated part of the course work includes the solution of four problems on the topic "Statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population."

The analytical part of the work includes the analysis of statistical data, as a source, which was used "Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008".

When working with tabular data, an Excel spreadsheet processor of the Microsoft Office 2003 package was used.

The work used textbooks of the basic course, additional literature, as well as materials from the media and statistical sites on the Internet.

CALCULATION PART

In order to analyze the expenditures and consumption of the population in the region in the reporting period, a simple 5% mechanical sample of households was carried out, as a result of which the following data were obtained, thousand rubles:

Household No.	Household No.	Average total expenses per household member	Expenditure on food products, on average, per household member

Exercise 1

According to the initial data:

1. Construct a statistical series of distribution of households according to the attribute -, forming four groups at equal intervals.

2. Calculate the characteristics of the interval distribution series: arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, mode and median.

3. Display graphically histogram, polygon.

Draw conclusions based on the results of the assignment.

Assignment 2

According to the initial data:

1. Establish the presence and nature of the connection between the signs - total expenses per household member on average and spending on food products, on average, per household member by the method of analytical grouping, forming four groups at equal intervals by factor.

2. Measure the tightness of the correlation between the named signs using the coefficients of determination and empirical correlation ratio.

Assignment 3

Based on the results of task 1, with a probability of 0.954, determine:

1. The sampling error of the average total expenditures per household member and the boundaries in which it will be located in the general population.

2. Sampling error for the share of households with an average total expenditure per household member of 70 thousand rubles. and more and the boundaries in which the general share will be located.

Task 4.

The consumption of goods and services by the population of the region in the reporting year is characterized by the following indicators:

Type of goods and services	Sales volume, million rubles	Indexes of the reporting year to the previous one,%
Type of goods and services	Sales volume, million rubles		physical volume
Foodstuffs
Non-grocery goods
Paid services

Define:

General indexes:
1. sales of goods and services to the population at current prices;
2. prices (Paasche) for goods and services;
3. the physical volume of goods and services.
An absolute increase (decrease) in sales of goods and services to the population due to changes in:
1. physical volume;
2. two factors together.
Ruble purchasing power index.

Draw conclusions.

ANALYTICAL PART

Formulation of the problem

According to Rosstat reports on total consumer spending of households, presented in Table 3.1, we will analyze the dynamics of total household spending, for which we will calculate the following indicators:

Absolute gain;
Growth rate;
Absolute value of 1% gain;
Average level of the series for the period, absolute growth, growth and growth rates.

Table 3.1

General consumer expenditures of households, thousand rubles

Bibliography

A.M. Godin Statistics: Textbook. - M .: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K", 2002
L.A. Golub Socio - economic statistics: Textbook. manual for stud. higher. study. institutions. - M .: Vlados, 2001
Gusarov V.M. Theory of statistics: Textbook. manual for universities. - M .: Audit, UNITI, 1998
The course of socio - economic statistics: textbook for universities \\ Ed. prof. M.G. Nazarov. - M .: Finstatinform, 2002
Melkumov Ya.S. Socio - economic statistics: teaching method. Benefit. - M .: Publishing house IMPE - PABLISH, 2004
General theory of statistics: a textbook for university students enrolled in economics and management \\ A.M. Ilyshev. - M .: UNITY - DANA, 2008
Popular economic and statistical dictionary - reference book \\ Ed. I.I. Eliseeva. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 1993
Workshop on statistics: textbook. manual for universities \\ Ed. V.M. Simchera \\ VZFEI. - M .: ZAO Finstatinform, 1999
Rudakova R.P., Bukin L.L., Gavrilov V.I. Statistics, 2nd ed. - SPb, Peter, 2007
Sergeeva I.I., Chekulina T.A., Timofeeva S.A. Statistics: textbook. - M.: Publishing House "Forum": INFRA - M, 2008
Socio - economic statistics: Textbook for universities / ed. prof. B.I. Bashkatov. - M .: UNITI_DANA, 2002
Statistics: textbook. manual \\ A.V. Bagat, M.M. Konkina, V.M. simchera and others; PD ed. V.M. Simchers. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 2005
Statistics: textbook. manual for university students enrolled in economic specialties \\ V.M. Gusarov, E.I. Kuznetsova. - 2nd ed., Rev. and add. - M .: UNITY - DANA, 2007

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Introduction

Consumption is the final stage of the reproductive process, which is reduced to the use of the produced product to meet certain needs.

The main tasks of statistics of consumption of the population as the most important component of their standard of living are associated with the development of the System of indicators of consumption, natural and cost, individual, family and consolidated consumer budgets and the consumer basket, the study of the structure of consumer spending, elasticity and differentiation of consumption, dynamics of consumption of the population and consumer prices, purchasing power of money.

For the most successful research, this component is distinguished:

- intermediate consumption represents the value of products and market services consumed and provided during a given period for the purpose of producing other products and services.

- final consumption, or, in fact, the consumption of the population - the expenses of economic units for products and services used directly to meet the current individual and collective needs of people.

Since the structure of population consumption contains consumer goods (food, non-food products) and services (tangible and intangible, paid and free), paid and free consumption are distinguished, respectively.

Paid consumption is carried out at the expense of the personal income of the population, that is, the funds of the family budget, and therefore it can be classified as personal. It should additionally include the cost of products produced by households for their own needs.

Free consumption population includes the consumption of goods and services in healthcare, education, culture, etc., as well as the consumption of goods and services by the population fully supported by the state (conscripts, inmates of orphanages living in homes for the disabled, labor and war veterans).

Production and consumption actively influence each other. The purpose of production is to serve consumption. The level of consumption, its dynamics and structure are the most important elements in human life. It is the consumption of the population that expresses the essence of a socially oriented market economy. This is the economy of the most developed countries.

In the calculation part, I examine sample data on gross income and food expenditures for households in one of the districts.

In the analytical part of the work, I will consider the change in the cost of basic food products by region in the reporting period in comparison with the baseline and on average for all regions.

To automate statistical calculations, I used the MS Excel spreadsheet software package in Windows.

The compilation of information characterizing population consumption is a complex process of balance sheet development aimed at linking various data sources. The main sources of information characterizing the consumption of the population include:

Data from a sample survey of household budgets, on the basis of which the natural and cost indicators of consumption per capita and per consumer unit are constructed; the structure, dynamics and differentiation of consumption are studied;

Trade statistics data on the volume and structure of retail trade;

The balance of monetary incomes and expenditures of the population according to financial statistics, which determines the ratio in the expenditures of the population for the purchase of goods and services and for savings;

Statistics on the activities of enterprises and farms (agricultural enterprises, peasants and farms, personal subsidiary farms and industrial enterprises, wholesale and retail trade and consumer cooperation) involved in the formation and use of food resources. On its basis, balances of food resources are built, the consumption fund of basic foodstuffs is determined by the population, natural per capita consumption indicators are calculated, and consumption dynamics is studied.

In statistics at the macro level, the summarizing cost indicator of consumption is the final consumption expenditure of households, which is reflected in the use of disposable income account and includes expenditures on:

1) final consumption of households (residents and non-residents) in the economic territory of the country, covering:

Expenses for the purchase of consumer goods (except for houses, apartments, purchase of building materials by owners of dwellings, valuables);

Expenses for payment of consumer services (household, passenger transport, communications, housing and communal services, tourist excursions, education, culture, health care, health resorts, physical culture and sports, legal) and financial services (banks, insurance companies, organizations for lotteries);

Final consumption of goods and services from income received in kind from wages,

Consumption of goods and services produced for their own final consumption by households in unincorporated enterprises (agricultural products produced by peasants, farms and personal subsidiary plots of the population, and housing services produced for their own consumption by owners of dwellings);

2) purchases of consumer goods and services by resident households abroad;

3) purchase of consumer goods and services by non-resident households in the economic territory of the country.

Final consumption expenditures of resident households are determined on the basis of the indicators 1), 2) and 3) considered earlier as 1 + 2-3.

However, the considered generalizing indicator does not take into account the cost of free services consumed by the population.

Another generalizing cost indicator of consumption is the actual final consumption of households.

Actual consumption of households - the real value of final consumption, which is provided both through real income and through social transfers in kind provided to the population by government bodies and non-profit organizations serving households. Actual final consumption is recorded in the adjusted disposable income use account. This account characterizes the distribution of the adjusted disposable income to actual final consumption and savings.

The consumption of goods by the population satisfies various needs. According to their importance, they are divided into goods essentials (food, housing, etc.), goods less necessary (books, TVs, washing machines, etc.), luxury goods (gourmet food, especially fashionable clothes, jewelry, expensive furniture, etc.).

A growing role in the consumption of the population is played by a variety of services provided to the population and satisfying human needs.

The volume of services produced for own end use includes two types of services: for living in your own home - they are estimated approximately, in the amount of the cost of providing housing and home services, produced by workers (servants, cooks, gardeners, etc.), and the value is determined by the wages of these workers, including all types of compensation in kind (food, housing, etc.)

Distinguish between services material (industrial - repair of clothing, shoes, household and household items) and intangible (cultural, educational, medical, etc.).

Services are divided into paid (market) and free (non-market).

The main indicator of consumption is the level of individual consumption as the average per capita consumption of certain goods and services. It is calculated as the ratio of the annual volume of consumed goods and services by type to the average annual population, both as a whole and by individual social groups, groups by income, age, nature of occupation, and other characteristics (sex, climatic and social conditions).

This indicator often appears in international comparisons, although recently the indicator is increasingly indicated in statistical publications. gross domestic product per capita.

Here are the data on the consumption of basic food products in Russia (Table 1.).

Table 1.

Food consumption in Russia (per capita per year)

Rational
	Products

Meat and meat products, kg
Milk and dairy
products, l

Fish and fish products, kg
Sugar and confectionery
products, kg
Potatoes, kg
Vegetables and melons, kg
Fruits and berries, kg
Bread products, kg

Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook. - M. 1999. - P. 167.

As you can see from the table. 1, the per capita consumption of basic foodstuffs in the country has sharply decreased over 5 years (the only exception is potatoes and grain products), and according to this indicator, Russia was lagging behind for many years. For some products, consumption does not meet not only rational, but even minimal standards (these are meat and meat products, milk and dairy products, fruits and berries, vegetables and melons).

The total caloric content of food has also decreased: from 3085 kcal in 1990 to 2275 kcal in 1998. The daily intake of proteins, fats and carbohydrates has decreased, there is a lack of most vitamins and a number of minerals, and a low level of dietary fiber in food.

With a significant reduction in the average per capita consumption of food products in the country in recent years, it has significantly differentiated by groups of households with different incomes, this is evident from the comparison of consumption of basic food products in households of the two extreme decile (10%) groups - the 1st group with the smallest cash income and the 10th group with the highest income.

For these groups, per one household member for 1996, the following data were obtained, respectively:

Foodstuffs group group

Meat and meat products, kg ............................. 2.9 5.7

Milk and dairy products, l .......... 15.5 24.8

Eggs, pcs ............................................... ... 11 18

Fish and fish products, kg ............................ 0.5 1.1

Sugar and confectionery, fruits, kg 1.8 26

Potatoes, kg ............................................... .8.9 9.9

Bread products, kg ........................... 7.3 8.6

Comparison of the actual consumption of individual goods with the normative one makes it possible to determine the level of satisfaction of the population's needs for this product.

Demand satisfaction ratio i -m product

looks like:

Actual consumption of the i-th product on average per capita;

The normative level of consumption of the i-th product on average per capita;

The ratio of meeting the needs of the population for all consumer goods and services (K u.p. o) is defined in aggregate form:

p - product price;

q is the amount of actually consumed goods;

s is the number of actually consumed services;

t is the actual tariff for a specific service;

q H - standard of consumption of a certain product per capita;

s H - standard of consumption of a certain type of services per capita;

Average population for the period.

The difference between the numerator and denominator of this indicator determines the cost of the total underconsumption of goods and services in comparison with its standard level.

Dynamics total and per capita consumption is studied using indices. For certain types of goods are calculated individual consumption change indices;

- total consumption i -th product:

Consumption volumes of the i-th product in physical terms in the reporting and base periods, respectively;

- per capita consumption i -th product:

Average population in the reporting and reference periods, respectively;

The difference between the numerator and denominator of indices shows absolute change, respectively, of the total and average per capita consumption i -th product:

;

Statistics services allows you to determine both the total and per capita consumption of individual services by the population, and for this, their cost estimate is most often used (first of all, market services).

The consumption of services by the population is measured in the same way as for goods. At the same time, the comparability of prices (tariffs-t) for services in the reporting and base periods should be ensured as a result of using a comparable (base) price or using the deflation method.

The dynamics of the general consumption of goods and services by the population is characterized by aggregate index of consumption volume:

q 1, q 0, s 1, s 0 - the amount of goods and services consumed in the reporting and base periods, respectively;

p o, t o - the price of the goods and the tariff for a certain service in the base period.

To study the dynamics of consumption of certain groups of goods or services, average harmonic index of physical volume as follows:

where i p - individual price indices for individual goods and services.

To study the dependence of consumption on income in social statistics, in practice, it is used coefficient the percentage of consumption elasticity from changes in income, which shows how much the percentage increases (or decreases) the consumption of goods and services with an increase in income by 1% (A. Marshall's formula):

x, y - initial income and consumption;

Their increments over a certain period (or when moving from one group to another).

If the coefficient of elasticity is negative, then with an increase in income, the consumption of “low-value” (low quality) goods decreases.

If K e\u003e 1, then consumption grows faster than income.

If K e \u003d 1, then there is a proportional relationship between income and consumption.

First, it is necessary to study the general population, in particular, an assessment of its homogeneity (homogeneity), its stratification by basic characteristics and determination of the required number of households according to one of the most suitable formulas for the size of the sample.

Alternatively, you can use a random non-resampling method. The formula for the selection size is as follows:

n is the number of units to be selected for the survey;

t is the coefficient of confidence calculated from the tables depending on the probability with which it can be guaranteed that the marginal error does not exceed the t-fold average error (with a probability of 0.990 it is equal to 3, and with a probability of 0.999 - 3.28, most often they rely on the probability 0.954, at which g is 2);

Sample variance (it is usually determined on the basis of an experiment, trial survey, or by analogs);

- marginal (set) sampling error;

N is the size of the general (studied) population.

In order to increase the homogeneity of the studied population and greater accuracy of the calculation, the population is stratified, divided into a number of groups according to some criterion. The sample size formula differs from the previous one only in that the sample variance is replaced by the average of the within-group variances. However, in this case, it is advisable to select for each group in proportion to the differentiation of the feature (). Then the formula for the size of the sample (for each group) is greatly simplified:

K is the number of i-th population groups;

N i - the size of the i-th population group;

The standard deviation of the feature in the i-th group.

In mechanical sampling, the size of the sample is determined by establishing the proportion of selection: dividing the population by the sample size; if the selection proportion is a fractional value, the nearest whole number must be taken. Then, according to the list of units, each unit is selected, taken at an interval equal to the portion of the selection.

In order to speed up the research process and reduce the cost of collecting materials, it is advisable to use methods small you boring. A small sample is considered to be a selection of units of less than 20 (i.e. n< 20).

The average error of a small sample is calculated by the formula:

The standard deviation of a small sample, which is calculated by the formula:

Small sample standard deviation;

Standard deviation of the usual sample;

x- independent random variables (characteristics of the studied values);

Small sample mean;

p - the size of the sample.

The marginal sampling error is determined by the following formula:

t is the normalized deviation (t), or the coefficient of confidence, is determined from the Student's table of probabilities.

2. 2. Consumption study based on a sample of household budgets

At the household level, consumption is studied on the basis of a sample survey of their budgets. The survey program provides for the collection of information characterizing not only income, but also expenses of the population. Household expenditure includes expenditure on consumption and costs not consumption-related ... The latter include taxes, pension and social security contributions and other insurance contributions, remittances, gifts.

Consumption expenditure covers all current expenditure on goods and services, regardless of whether they were paid in whole or in part during the survey period and whether they were intended for consumption within the household. Consumer spending consists of food purchases (including meals outside the home), alcoholic beverages, non-food items, and service costs. They do not include the purchase of jewelry, payment for materials and work on the construction and overhaul of residential or auxiliary premises. Free education, medical and other services are not included in consumer spending.

In the survey program, food expenditures include the consumption of bread and cereals, meat and fish, animal fats and vegetable oils, milk and dairy products, eggs, fruits and vegetables, sugar and confectionery, soft drinks, etc. Food consumption is taken into account in natural units and at cost.

Natural indicators calculated on average per capita or on average per consumer unit. TO cost indicators includes the cost of food in households, which consists of the cash expenditure on the purchase of food for personal consumption within the household, the cost of eating outside the home, and the value of food in-kind. In addition, are used structural indicators, reflecting the share of food expenditures in consumer spending, the structure of expenditures by type of food, and indicators characterizing the quality of food: its calorie content and the content of proteins, fats and carbohydrates in consumed foods.

Let us consider some natural indicators of consumption of specific goods and services by the population. Recently it was still believed that in terms of the total calorie intake (more than 3000 kcal per day on average on soul), our country was at the level of the developed countries of the world. For such products as milk, eggs, fish, sugar, vegetables, potatoes, the level of their per capita consumption was not lower, and for some, even higher than the level of consumption in many countries. Only for meat and fruits in Russia was the level lower, that is, there was a predominantly carbohydrate diet - mainly bread products, sugar, cereals and potatoes, therefore up to 30% of the population were overweight (vegetables and melons were consumed 29% lower than the recommended norms, and fruits and berries are 31% lower).

In the majority of developed countries, they have long since switched to protein and vitamin nutrition with a high content of animal proteins, fats, vitamins, and essential amino acids. In total, for normal life, a person must absorb more than 100 components in appropriate proportions (only about 15 types of vitamins, and among minerals - iron, manganese, cobalt, etc.). Only adherence to consumption within the framework of the norms ensures rational nutrition (replenishing human energy costs, as well as the optimal ratio of food and biologically active substances), which is necessary for the normal life of a person as a physical (biological) being and as a social subject.

In the consumption of food products, the science of nutrition distinguishes 5 groups of workers, depending on the type of their labor activity: I - those employed mainly in mental work (heads of enterprises and firms, specialists, workers of culture and science); II - engaged in light physical labor (service workers, sellers of industrial goods, nurses, orderlies); III - those employed with medium severity labor (surgeons, vehicle drivers, catering workers, food sellers, etc.); IV - those engaged in heavy physical labor (construction workers, the bulk of agricultural workers, carpenters, riggers, miners working on the surface, etc.); V - those engaged in especially hard work (miners, steelworkers, loggers, excavators, loaders, whose work is little mechanized, etc.).

The normative calorie content of food also significantly changes by group. So, if for men aged 18 to 29 years, the norm in group I is 2800 kcal. per day, then for group II - already 3000; for group 111 - 3200; for group IV - 3700 and group V - 4300 kcal. For the age group of men from 30 to 39 years old, the daily energy requirement decreases by 100 kcal., And for the group from 50 to 59 years old, it decreases by 250 kcal. Women have less energy requirements than men, by about 15%, and people with a sedentary lifestyle have a 25-30% lower calorie requirement than men. Calorie norms for pensioners are 1900 kcal. Critical is the caloric content of food, equal to 2000 kcal., Or about 8400 kJ (in the International System of Units, the assessment of the energy value of food and the energy consumption of a person in the process of his vital activity are given in joules: 1 kcal. \u003d 4.184 kJ).

The study of the consumption of non-food products under the program for sampling household budgets is carried out according to the following types: expenses for clothing, linen, shoes, fabrics, furniture and household items, cultural and household goods, vehicles, hygiene, perfumery and pharmaceuticals, tobacco products, building materials and other non-food products. Consumption values \u200b\u200bare calculated based on the consumption of footwear and fabrics. For the rest of non-food products, only value indicators are calculated, as well as the structure of consumption.

Non-durable goods include, for example, clothing, footwear, fabrics, hosiery - their standard service life is set up to three years. Disposable goods include food.

Durable goods are items with a service life of three years or more. For a number of durable goods, usually shared by household members, average consumption is predominantly calculated per household. it population security indicators appropriate items. They are calculated in physical units (per household, per 100, per 1000 households or per 10,000 people). Provision is understood as the degree of prevalence of these goods in the personal use of citizens. Indicators of this kind only indirectly characterize consumption.

In the presence of differentiated indicators of provision with one or another subject by population groups, the average provision is found as a weighted average, where the weights are the share of population groups in its total population (in the number of households). The product of the average provision indicator and the prevalence rate (the share of households with a given subject) will show the size of the average provision of the subject per person (per household). At the same time, with the chain of commensurability of indicators for individual and public household items, the latter must be adjusted (divided) by the average size of the household. If we multiply the natural indicators of security by the total population, we get the total number (park) of items available to the population.

The presence of a specific item at the time of calculation (usually at the end of the year) is determined by the balance formula

where - subject availability at the end and beginning of the year:

Its receipt (purchase and all other sources) during the year;

- disposal.

Disposals are estimated using the continuous inventory method based on the assumed useful life of the item. The service life of durable items is calculated on the basis of technical and operational data, taking into account their obsolescence. So, if the service life of an item is set at 5 years, then after its expiration from the moment of sale, this item is considered to have dropped out of the physical volume of the general fund of provision with this item.

Annual consumption of durable and non-durable items is the value of the annual wear and tear of items. This value is calculated on the basis of annual wear rates, which are the reciprocal of the standard service life of items. If, for example, the standard service life of TVs is set at 10 years, then their annual wear is equal to 10% of the total cost of the TV set in use by the population. Annual depreciation is also calculated by dividing the value of the available inventory of items from the population by their service life. Per capita or household, the wear and tear of these items (their consumption) is determined by the ratio of the average per capita or average per household supply of this item in value form to the standard service life.

The practice of evenly writing off the value of items during their established service life is based on the fact that the actual service life of the items of interest does not differ from the established normative - research shows that the actual service life obeys the law of normal distribution, that is, items purchased in a certain base year of a certain type (for example, televisions) begin to retire from consumption already in the first years of their operation (long before the established period). As the period of their actual use increases, the share of retired items in the total number of purchased items in the base year increases, reaching the highest level in the area of \u200b\u200bstandard service life. Then this share begins to decrease. Since it is extremely difficult to establish the real annual wear and tear of certain types of goods (special studies are needed), in practice they are still acting in accordance with the procedure outlined earlier.

Given the practical difficulties in accurately calculating the cost of the annually worn part of the stock of items, their annual consumption is often estimated at the cost of the annual purchases of these items. The disadvantage of this method is that the volume of consumption is overestimated, since the cost of items sold annually is usually higher than the cost of their annual wear and tear. This excess is due to the fact that the sales volume includes not only the sale of items that are used to restore their annually worn out part, but also the sale of them to consumers who purchase this item for the first time. The sizes of annual consumption and annual purchases will coincide only if both supply and annual consumption remain unchanged.

The excess of the volume of annual purchases (sales) over the annual consumption of items is expressed by the ratio of these two values \u200b\u200band is the purchase ratio. If the size of the annual consumption of this or that item is multiplied by the coefficient of its purchase, then we get the size of the annual purchase of this item in kind on average per capita. The latter indicator, multiplied by the price of the given item and the population, reflects the value of the annual purchase of the item. The sum of such purchases for different items determines the total purchases for the year.

Various services play an increasing role in the consumption of the population. Their assessment has its own specifics. Services - a special type of consumer value that exists in the form of useful activities for individuals and society. The time of production of services coincides with the time of their consumption (the service is provided).

In the statistics of consumption, the object of research is only the services provided to the population that satisfy human needs. Services of a collective nature that satisfy public needs (in the field of management, defense, law and order, science, etc.) do not belong to this group.

Household and personal services created by household members for their own final consumption are not included in the volume of production (and, accordingly, consumption), since their production is completely autonomous and does not affect the rest of the economy. These include: cleaning, decorating and maintaining the home: preparing and serving food; childcare, education and self-education; caring for the sick, disabled and elderly; transportation of household members or their belongings; home repair and maintenance of consumer durables.

1) Let's construct a statistical series of distribution of organizations on the basis of "Gross income", forming five groups at equal intervals.

Let's find the value of the interval by the formula:

;

x max and x min are found from Table 1.

Let's group by the "Gross Income" criterion.

Table 3

Interval series of household distribution

by gross income, thousand rubles

2) Let's build a graph (Fig. 1) of the obtained distribution series:

It is necessary to graphically determine the value of the Mod ( Moe) and Median ( Me):

Fashion Mo - the most common variant of the characteristic values \u200b\u200bor the variant that corresponds to the maximum ordinate of the empirical distribution curve. The graph shows that Moe = 157,1.

Median Me - the median value of the ranked series of options for the characteristic values. According to the graph, we determine that Me this is the middle of the interval (130.1 - 184.1) and Me = 157,1.

3) Let's calculate the characteristics of the interval distribution series: the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation.

The arithmetic mean of the distribution series is found by the formula:

Table 4

The standard deviation is found by the formula:

;

For this, it is necessary to continue table 4, forming table 4.1.

Table 4.1.

Distribution of households by gross income, thousand rubles

The number of households in the group. f

Middle of the interval, thousand rubles x

Substitute the obtained values \u200b\u200binto the formula:

The coefficient of variation is calculated using the formula:

Let's substitute the values \u200b\u200binto the formula: .

4) Let's calculate the arithmetic mean according to the initial data presented in table 1.

Conclusion: The obtained result of 143.2 (million rubles) differs from the same indicator 149.9 (million rubles), calculated in clause 3, because in one case, as the calculation of the average, we took into account each value of the attribute from 30 given, and in the other - we took the midpoints of the intervals as the values \u200b\u200bof the features in the groups.

According to the initial data in Table 1:

1) Establish the presence and nature of the relationship between the characteristics - "Gross income" and "Expenditure on food", forming five groups at equal intervals for both characteristics, by methods:

a) analytical group,

b) correlation table.

a) Analytical grouping allows you to study the relationship between factorial and effective indicators. To identify the dependence using this method, it is necessary to group the population units according to the factor attribute and for each group calculate the average or relative value of the effective attribute. Comparing then the changes in the effective attribute as the factorial changes, it is possible to identify the direction, nature and tightness of the relationship between them.

It is necessary to group by factor, forming five groups (it is produced in table 3). Let's build worksheet 5.

Table 5

Distribution of households by gross income

Household groups by gross income	Household No.	Gross income	Number of household members	Food costs
Household groups by gross income	Household No.	Gross income	Number of household members	Food costs

To establish the presence and nature of the relationship between gross income and food expenditures according to the worksheet, we build a final analytical table (Table 5.1).

Table 5.1

Dependence of gross income on food expenses

Household groups by gross income	Household number	Gross income		Food costs
Household groups by gross income	Household number		average gross income		average per household

Data in table 5.1. show that with an increase in gross income, expenses per household increase on average. Consequently, there is a direct correlation between the studied characteristics.

b) Correlation table is a special combination table, which presents a grouping according to two interrelated characteristics: factorial and effective.

According to Table 1, it is necessary to determine whether there is a relationship between gross income and food expenditures.

Let's build a correlation table, forming five groups according to the factorial and resultant attribute. We take the distribution of households by factor, as in the case of the analytical grouping, with the same intervals (Table 6).

Table 6

Distribution of households by gross income and food expenditure

Household groups by gross income	Food costs
Household groups by gross income

As can be seen from Table 6, the distribution of the number of households occurred along the diagonal drawn from the upper left corner to the lower right corner of the table, ie, an increase in the “gross income” indicator was accompanied by an increase in the “food expenditures” indicator. The nature of the frequency concentration along the diagonal of the correlation table indicates the presence of a direct close correlation between the studied characters. Communication tightness can be measured by the empirical correlation ratio:

Let's substitute in the formula for calculating the coefficient of determination:

The coefficient of determination shows that the level of spending on food is 73% dependent on gross income. Let's calculate the empirical correlation ratio:

which indicates a significant impact of gross income on food costs.

Based on the results of task 1, the following values \u200b\u200bwere obtained:.

It is necessary to determine the average size of gross income and the boundaries in which it will be located in the general population.

The condition says that the sample is 2% mechanical, non-repetitive, so the average error is calculated using the following formula:

The data for the task are given in Table 2.

1) By the condition of the problem, the individual price indices for the types of goods and services have the following meanings:

We calculate the general price index for goods and services using the Paasche formula, transforming it into the formula for the average harmonic price index:

It shows that the level of prices for goods and services sold in the third quarter increased by 15.8% (115.8% -100%).

2) Let's find the purchasing power index of the ruble using the formula:

or 86.4%.

It shows that the purchasing power of the ruble in the third quarter decreased by 13.6% (100% -86.4%) \u003d.

3) By the condition of the problem, the individual indices of the volume of sales by types of goods and services in comparable prices have the following values:

Let us find the index of the physical volume of consumption of goods and services in comparable prices using the formula of the harmonic average weighted index of the physical volume of production:

It shows that the physical volume of consumption of goods and services in comparable prices decreased in the III quarter as compared to the II quarter by 17.6% (100% -82.4%).

4) The general consumption index in actual prices is found by the formula:

or 95.4%

It shows that the total output (value) in actual prices decreased in the III quarter compared with the II quarter by 5.6% (100-95.4%).

5) Let's calculate the absolute increase (decrease) in the cost of goods and services due to changes in prices and sales volume for each type of goods and services.

To do this, let's build table 8.

Table 8

Absolute increase (decrease) in the cost of goods and services due to changes in prices and sales

Conclusion: Due to the rise in prices, the cost of goods and services increased by 193.427 million rubles. Due to a decrease in the volume of sales, the cost of goods and services decreased by 246.75 million rubles.

Control over the change in the cost of basic food products by region (except for the autonomous okrugs that are part of the krai, oblast) in the reporting period in comparison with the baseline and on average for all regions.

According to the data presented in table 1, it is necessary to calculate:

Change in the cost of a set of food products by region;

Change in the cost of a set of food products on average across all regions.

Table 1

The cost of the minimum set of food products in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for October - November 2005

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal Agency for Education GOU VPO

All-Russian Correspondence Financial and Economic Institute

Department of Automated Processing

economic information

COURSE WORK

on statistics on the topic:

Statistical study of expenditures and consumption of the population

Chelyabinsk-2009

Introduction ………………………………………………………………………… ... 3

I Theoretical part ………………………………………………………… ..5

1.1 The concept of consumer demand of the population and sources of information ... .5

1.2 Indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population …………………… ..8

1.3 Demand Elasticity Ratio and Use in Forecasting11

1.4 Subsistence minimum and minimum consumer budget …… .13

II Calculation part …………………………………………………………… ..16

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 29

References…. ……………………………………………………… ..30

Introduction.

The relevance of the topic is expressed in the fact that income indicators of the population reflect the potential for meeting its needs for goods and services. The use of this income for the purchase of goods and services. Therefore, the study of expenditures occupies one of the central places in the statistics of the living standards of the population.

In the computational part, the following tasks are considered:

Study of structure and totality;

Revealing the presence of a correlation between the signs, establishing its direction and changes in tightness;

Application of the sampling method in financial and economic problems;

A system of interrelated indices and arithmetic mean indices.

To complete this course work, Microsoft Office Word and Excel are used.

I Theoretical part

1.1 The concept of consumer demand of the population and sources of information.

To satisfy the increased demands of the population for the assortment, quality of goods, trade organizations, enterprises, companies, firms need a comprehensive study of consumer demand.

Consumer demand is an economic category that expresses the unity of the needs of the population and funds for their purchase.

In other words, demand is a social need, limited by the purchasing power of the population.

To study demand and forecast it requires a variety of information: economic, demographic, social, etc.

In the study of demand, such categories of information as primary and secondary are used.

Primary information is such facts that are not freely available and which therefore require considerable initiative and effort on the part of those studying consumer demand.

When collecting primary information, the following methods are usually used:

survey method;

observation method;

experimental method.

One variation of a survey method that can be very useful for a merchant in studying customer demand is semantic differential. A fairly simple research method that can be used to find out the points of view of buyers about objects, concepts or things.

Experimental method. This method consists in setting up a large-scale experiment under well controlled circumstances. Unlike others, based on the analysis of data on the state of demand, the experimental method is designed in practice to test the viability of a new product for the market and to work out the technique of its marketing.

Secondary information means facts that are available, although their refinement requires some effort. To use secondary information, you need to find its source.

When collecting secondary information, consider the following:

reliability of the source of information;

the possibility of error on the part of the collecting agent and the possibility of data falsification;

relevance of the "freshness" of information;

applicability of information to problem solving.

The most fruitful sources for solving business problems are enterprise reporting and government statistics.

1.2 Indicators of consumption of goods and services by the population.

To characterize the consumption of certain types of goods and services, indicators of the volume of consumption in physical terms are used.

The structure of goods and services consumed by the population includes:

Food;

Non-grocery goods;

For certain types of goods and services

For total consumption

where, q is the amount of consumption for certain types of goods and services;

qp is the total consumption of goods and services;

Average annual population.

The level of consumption of goods and services in the regions is calculated on average per capita and for certain age and gender and social groups.

The dynamics of the volume of consumption of certain types of goods and services is studied using individual indices of the physical volume of consumption.

Indicators of consumption by the population of material goods and services, along with indicators of housing conditions, occupy a central place in the system of indicators of the population's living standards.

Changes in the size and structure of the consumption fund of the population clearly reflect the trends in the country's economic development.

The fund for consumption of material goods by the population includes the value of all material products used to meet the final consumer needs of the population. It consists of the following elements:

Consumption of products purchased by the population in the retail network;

Consumption of products received by the population in the form of wages;

Consumption of products produced and used for non-production needs in producers 'farms (in personal subsidiary plots and farmers' farms);

The collective consumption of the population in the institutions of the production sector serving the population (children's institutions, educational institutions, rest homes and sanatoriums, homes for veterans and the elderly, etc.);

The consumption of the population from other sources (charity, gifts, humanitarian aid, etc.).

The total consumption of material goods and services by the population is the main generalizing indicator characterizing the standard of living of the population. It includes personal consumption of material goods by the population and in full paid services provided to the population. The calculation of this indicator provides the relationship of individual indicators of the well-being of the population, which allows us to consider the level and structure of consumption in relation to the total income of the population and gives a more complete description of the satisfaction of the personal needs of the population.

Indicators of consumption of material goods and services by the population are calculated in accordance with the general principles for assessing the corresponding indicators when calculating GDP.

The general fund of consumption of material goods and services by the population is calculated by summing:

1) personal consumption of material goods by the population;

2) consumption of paid services by the population;

3) consumption of free services by the population.

Personal consumption of material goods by the population. The personal consumption of products and goods by the population includes material benefits directly acquired by the population at the expense of personal monetary income, as well as received in the form of income in kind. In terms of their material composition, the material goods consumed by the population include food products (food, drinks), non-food products (clothes, shoes, furniture, cultural goods), as well as expenditures for household needs of fuel, electricity, water and gas.

To calculate the volume of personal consumption of material goods, consumer goods received by the population are grouped according to sources of income:

Purchase of goods that are determined according to retail trade data. At the same time, the purchase of means of production (building materials, feed, agricultural implements, seeds, adult livestock) is excluded from the volume of retail trade;

Consumption of products received from personal subsidiary plots, purchased at non-village and intra-village markets, and obtained from collective farms and farms, which are determined on the basis of calculations of the consolidated balance of agricultural products, balances of vegetable oil, wine, grape and fruit and berry and products of other branches of material production ;

Household consumption of electricity, gas and water by the population.

The consumption of material goods by the population is estimated by

the actual purchase prices of goods and products for each source.

Indicators of consumption of material goods can be determined in monetary and physical terms. Thus, one of the generalizing indicators is the total consumption of material goods and services by the population, calculated in value terms both for the population as a whole and per capita.

There are certain peculiarities in calculating the consumption of food and non-food material goods.

Food consumption accounts for about half of all personal consumption. The share of food expenses in family budgets, although it tends to decrease, remains high. Indicators of food consumption are calculated per capita (as a rule, per year), using natural and conditionally natural units of measurement. Conversion into conditionally natural meters is carried out on the basis of the coefficients of conversion of indicators of consumption of specific food products into a conventional unit of measurement. In total, there are 10 main food groups, the consumption of which per capita is determined for the year: meat and meat products in terms of meat; milk and dairy products in terms of milk; eggs; fish and fish products; sugar; vegetable oil; potatoes; vegetables and melons; fruits and berries (without processing into wine); bread and bakery products (in terms of flour).

The peculiarity of the indicator of per capita consumption of food products is that when comparing these products for individual territorial units, it is necessary to take into account the age and sex composition of consumers, as well as their occupation. Therefore, in order to take these features into account, statistics, using consumption coefficients, reduce consumption indicators to a conventional consumption unit, which is the consumption of an adult male engaged in mechanized labor. The existing scale of consumption coefficients includes six coefficients of consumption by children (from 0.2 at the age of one year to 0.98 at the age of 14-18), as well as four coefficients depending on gender, age and occupation for adults (Group I - 0.9; Group II - 1.0; III group -

eleven; IV group - 1.2 from the conventional consumer unit).

To calculate the coefficient of satisfaction of needs, the actual level of consumption (Pfact) is correlated with scientifically based norms, i.e., with rational consumption norms (Praz):

iy - _ ^ fact yn ~

Meeting the needs of the population in food products can also be characterized not by the amount of individual products consumed, but by indicators of caloric content and nutritional value of the daily diet.

Consumption of non-food non-durable goods (clothing, footwear, fabrics, hosiery) is determined using indicators in physical terms per capita. When calculating rational norms of consumption of non-food products, it is taken into account that the population already has a certain amount of them.

To characterize the consumption of durable goods, it is more expedient to use indicators of the provision of the population with these material goods, calculated either per 1000 people or per 100 families. Calculations are carried out both for the population as a whole and for the urban and rural population.

The study of the dynamics of indicators of consumption of material goods is based on the use of the index method. At the same time, the dynamics of consumption is studied both for individual types of consumed products and goods, and for the entire volume of material goods in general.

The individual index of the volume of consumption of individual products is as follows:

where q (and<70 - объемы потребления данного вида материальных благ в натуральном выражении в отчетном и базисном периодах.

The individual index of per capita consumption is calculated by the formula

where 5, and J0 is the average annual population in the reporting and base periods.

To determine the dynamics of consumption of several TYPES of material goods, the construction of a general consumption index is possible only on the basis of cost indicators. The formula for this index has the form of an aggregate index of the physical volume of consumption:

^ f. o.potr G-. ’

where p0 - comparable prices for each type of product;

q (and qQ - the number of consumed products of each type in the reporting and base periods.

Revaluation of material goods is carried out on the basis of individual or group price indices for consumer goods:

^ iPn \u003d ^ qP: Іcen-

The general consumption index per capita is calculated using the formula

/ \u003d / / - ^ Po - Zl

^ cons. on our best * f. about cons.? at. -.

To determine the degree of influence of factors on the level of consumption of material goods, regression-correlation analysis, empirical and theoretical coefficients of elasticity of consumption from changes in various factors are used. Changes in the level of income are most often taken as such a factor. The method of calculating empirical coefficients of elasticity of consumption of material goods according to unaligned (actual) data is the most simple:

Ah u _ Lx Doo 'Doo lu

where Ke is the coefficient of elasticity of consumption from income;

x - per capita consumption;

y is the average per capita income;

Ah and Ay are the corresponding increments of these indicators.

The obtained values \u200b\u200bof the coefficients of elasticity show how many percent the consumption of this type of material goods increases with a simultaneous increase in income by 1%.

In general, for the population, the elasticity of consumption of non-food products significantly exceeds the elasticity of food consumption. In turn, among foodstuffs, the consumption of bread and potatoes is the least elastic, and the most elastic is the consumption of cheese, meat, fruits, and animal oil. Among non-food products, the consumption of those that belong to basic necessities (clothes, shoes, etc.) is less elastic. The consumption of goods of limited demand (crystal glassware, jewelry), as well as individual vehicles (cars and motorcycles) is characterized by a significantly greater elasticity.

The consumption of paid services by the population, along with the consumption of material goods, plays a very important role in characterizing the standard of living of the population. In a market economy in Russia, the range of paid services has significantly expanded due to the category of those services that were traditionally free (education, health care, recreation services), and now have become commercial in nature. In addition, new types of paid services have appeared (security and investigation, gambling establishments, etc.), designed for segments of the population with high incomes.

Paid services include:

Domestic services;

Passenger transport services;

Communication services for servicing the population;

Housing and communal services;

Services for keeping children in preschool institutions;

Tuition;

Paid healthcare;

Services of cultural institutions;

Tourist and excursion service;

Spa and wellness services;

Financial services;

Legal and legal services;

Sales services at the place of work of forestry, construction and other products and materials;

Other services.

When assessing the total cost of paid services, the main problem is obtaining reliable information about their volume. A significant part of paid services does not lend itself to official accounting. This necessitates additional calculations of the actual indicators of consumption of paid services based on indirect data and sample surveys.

The services provided to the population free of charge or on preferential terms include the services of a number of organizations in the non-food sector for health protection and medical care, upbringing and maintenance of children, education, cultural and educational work, physical culture and sports. The monetary assessment of free services is carried out in the amount of the actual costs of organizations providing these services (excluding scholarships, pensions, benefits, as well as financing capital investments, capital repairs, the purchase of equipment and inventory), to which are added the depreciation of the fixed assets of these organizations.

The current expenses of organizations providing free or preferential services to the population include the cost of consumed materials, fuel, energy and other material resources, payments for non-material services, transport, communications, wages, social security contributions, etc. There is no profit in the field of free services. Depreciation of fixed assets of these organizations is taken in the amount of estimates made on the basis of data on the cost of fixed assets and depreciation rates.

The volume of free services does not include: expenses of enterprises, organizations and other economic units on social and cultural services for their employees; state subsidies for the maintenance of the housing stock.

Due to the fact that in our country there is a low rent, the incomes of the housing and communal services (HCS) do not cover all its expenses. Therefore, the volume of services provided to the population by housing and communal services is calculated according to the amount of expenses for the maintenance and operation of housing, including accrued depreciation.

The total consumption of paid and free services is determined by summing them up both in actual and in comparable prices. The latter are used to assess the dynamics of service consumption.

The general index of consumption of paid services has the form of an aggregate index of physical volume:

■ "f. O.usl

Individual indices of consumption of services are constructed similarly to individual indices of consumption of material goods. The following formulas are used for the calculation.

where iy is the individual index of consumption of certain types of services;

U | and _y0 is the level (volume) of consumption of services in the reporting and base periods;

i \u003d g ■ i - A-Zl-1L ■ A.

H H-1 * ^ v ‘s’

where / is the individual index of consumption of certain services per capita;

/ y - service consumption index;

Is is the average population index.

The index of total consumption of material goods and services is calculated as follows:

^ m. b.iusl Vі V '

^ oPo + ^ yoPo

where q ^ Po and q (] pn - the cost of consumed material goods in the reporting and base periods (in comparable prices).

j r _ ^ Po + ^ YPo. ^ oPo + ^ YoPo

* m. b. andsl. perfume * m. b.yusl * .y o "o

Along with the study of the dynamics of consumption by the population of material goods and services, a statistical study of the relationship between the level of income of the population and the consumption of specific types of material goods and services is of great importance. This relationship can be characterized by calculating linear correlation coefficients using the formula

where x is a factor attribute (income of the population);

y - a productive sign (the population's expenses for the purchase of specific types of material goods and services).

The same task can be performed by calculating the previously considered coefficient of elasticity K3, where incomes of the population act as a factor criterion (x), and the actual costs of the population for the purchase of goods and services are effective (y).

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