There is a traditional shuffling of gubernatorial places. Is it possible to predict the eagle path in the sky, snakes on a rock or politics in the Russian Federation? Political scientists from Minchenko Consulting took up the solution of this non-trivial task and conducted a large-scale study, trying to determine which governors would not last on top of the political Olympus, and which will remain on it even indefinitely.
Research methodology
The activities of officials included in the list of sustainability of Russian governors were analyzed from Syankvar in China 2017 and is estimated at nine criteria.
- The main one is the support of the governor so-called "Politburo 2.0", that is, the nearest circle of the environment of the president.
- Another criterion is whether the governor leads to some major project.
- Next is the degree of economic development of the region.
- The following criterion is the end time of the governor's authority. It is clear that if the governor just chose, it is unlikely to be gathering him to change in the near future.
- The degree of individuality of the governor (the more he is different from other officials, the better),
- The quality of political management is also taken into account.
- The researchers gave the value of the presence of quarrels of governors with the power of people at the federal level.
- The eighth criterion - the presence of the governor queries with regional officials.
- And finally, the ninth point is the degree of interest in the governor (or his team) of the power structures and the threat of the institution of criminal cases and arrests in the governor's environment.
The greater the number of positive criteria corresponds to the Career of the Governor, the more firmly it was established on his governor's chair. But those under whom it is already dangerous, listed below.
Rating governors-losers who face the resignation
10. Georgy Poltavchenko (St. Petersburg)
Number of points: 8
A small percentage of votes for "United Russia", the low turnout on the polls and scandal with St. Isaac's Cathedral are three whales on which rumors about the possible resignation of Poltavchenko from the post of mayor of St. Petersburg. However, such conversations have been going for a long time, in 2014, many in Smolny expected that Poltavchenko will put their powers at the beginning of the summer. And in the end, he got a mandate for five years of work.
9. Vyacheslav Bitarov (North Ossetia)
Number of points: 8
The press service of the Bitarov claims that rumors about his resignation do not correspond to reality. And the riding fears in the duration of his governor to the Moscow can turn into only ordinary participation in the meeting.
8. Pavel Kokkov (Ivanovo region)
Number of points: 8
On the eighth line in the top 11 of the governors who may face the resignation in 2017, is the head of the Ivanovo region. This is an economically weak region, in addition, over the past few years, several corruption scandals thundered in it in connection with the arrest of regional officials.
7. Alexander Berdnikov (Altai)
Number of points: 8
The governor of Berdnikov was poured both suspicion of economic frauds and love for drinking and careless statements. This summer, the head of Altai was obscene and threatened about the Altaians and threatened the local blogger to criminal prosecution. What can you do, not the people went to many governors.
6. Svetlana Orlova (Vladimir region)
Number of points: 8
Orlova herself would like to return to Moscow, only the places for her did not find it, and several influential people are not ready to see it there. Perhaps it will have to stay at the post of Vladimir Governor still year old.
The main claim to its administration is an overly protracted construction of the school in the Vladimir microdistrict 8-yuz. Despite the fact that officials received 582 million rubles from the regional budget for "school needs", the first contractor "Glavprombstroy" threw all the schedules of the construction, as a result, it was canvated. Now half of school buildings lack the walls. However, in a conversation with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin Svetlana Yuryevna promised that the object would be commissioned on time.
5. Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorsky Krai)
Number of points: 7
Perhaps, in a short time, Miklushevsky will follow his colleague Vladimir Shantse from the Nizhny Novgorod Region, the Minchenko Consulting experts predicted to him a quick resignation and at the time of publication of the report, their forecast was confirmed - on September 26, the Santans were resigned. But the governor of the Primorsky Krai still remains to "sit on the suitcases". Whether "the jacket for 500,000 rubles" so ruined the image, or the listeos about the new year's meeting in Vladivostok, and not in Dubai, or the terrifying situation in the labor market, because the Primorsky Krai "gathered" 15% of all debts on salary in Russia. And perhaps, the fact that two of the five of his deputies is under investigation played its role.
4. Marina Kovtun (Murmansk region)
Number of points: 6.
The strength of the positions Kovtun causes doubt experts. It may be imposed in the case of money laundering under the cover of charity, and Irina Yarova also wants to ship. According to unconfirmed information, the Murmansk governor has already announced a resignation, although Kovtun herself denies these species.
3. Alexander Karlin (Altai Territory), Victor Nazarov (Omsk Region)
Number of points: 6.
In the Administration of the Governor and the Government of the Altai Territory, there are searches. And on the appetizing piece of cake in the form of the governance of the Omsk region there are already applicants: In addition to Gazpromovtsev, these are "security forces", "Rostechovtsy" and (unexpectedly) Russian Railways. Which of these forces wins is unknown.
And Nazarov, having completed his task, that is, passing all the gas distribution flows of the region in the hands of Gazprom, just became not needed. Recently, he simply passively monitors the situation from.
2. Vladimir Gorodetsky (Novosibirsk region)
Number of points: 5.
On the second line in the ranking of Russian governors who received the "Red Card", the head of the Novosibirsk Territory is located. Like his colleague Viktor Tolokonsky (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Gorodetsky was not close to "Politburo 2.0". And if the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory on September 27 has already made a resignation, then the head of Novosibirsk is still holding. But how long? So far, he is engaged in his governor's affairs - communicates with journalists, decides the issue of "garbage concession", and "comment on gossip" (as he himself put himself) is not going. By the way, rumors about his resignation went back in April 2017, but did not justify.
1. Alexey Orlov (Kalmykia)
Number of points: 4
In the first place in the lists of governors from the risk group is the head of Kalmykia. This is one of the most disadvantaged from the financial and economic point of view of the regions of the Russian Federation, and the constant discomfort of the budget only worsen the situation. Only last year a criminal case was opened against the former Vice-Prime Minister of the Republic, Larisa Vasilyeva. And the rumors about the resignation of Orlov circulates for the year.
The most effective governors, the "Minchenko Consulting" version
As for the governors of heavyweights, which in the near future will leave their post in the near future, then they are analysts Mintchenko Consulting, Anatoly Artamonov, Alexey Dumin and Evgenia Savchenko, and from younger politicians - Andrei Vorobyva and Dmitry Kobylkina. Sobyanin, Kobylkin and Dumina scored 19 points of "sustainability", Savchenko and Vorobyov - 16, and Artamonov - 15.
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And appreciated their changers
Spring series of dismissal governors started in Russia. President Vladimir Putin has already accepted the resignation of Head of the Chelyabinsk Region and the Republic of Altai. They say it is only the beginning. According to the Speaker of the Sovfieda Valentina Matvienko, the governor's "Starfall" can end in mid-April. According to information from the Murmansk region, the head of the region Marina Kovtun also wrote a resignation statement. But she has not yet been adopted by the president. In total, the change in the near future will be replaced in six regions.
In Kalmykia, the head of the republic was already the chess player. Now there will be a kickboxer, Batu Hasikov.
In September of this year, the governor elections are scheduled in 18 regions of the Russian Federation, in nine of them chapters were retired by last fall. And if the autumn "governorota" authorities explained the "request to the update", and political scientists - the transfer of the agenda with the pension reform, the intensity of the choice of elections go to resign. "Those who choose the election could end up the election of Orlova or Zimin ended. Although there are differences in the current resignations - and this is the life of the governor. But in any case, these are the people whose election would be possible only if the candidate was non-alternative. And then, probably, it could become a problem, "the political scientist Konstantin Kalachev believes.
A series of dismissal began with the Chelyabinsk region. On Tuesday evening, Boris Dubrovsky, who led the region for five years, sent the appeal to Putin with a request to release him from his position. Politician stressed that this is his personal decision, and thanked the residents for their support. True, the day before that the Federal Antimonopoly Service accused the governor in an anti-competitive conspiracy with Yuzhuralmost.
Yes, and with the support of residents from Berdnikova, not everything was smooth: for five years, the representative of Magnitogorsk did not have for his Chelyabinites. Alexey Textler, whom Vladimir Putin appointed the acting governor of the region, at least born and grew up in Chelyabinsk, it is still not entirely for the local elite. As they write, his formation passed in Norilsk, and specifically - in the Norilsk Nickel group. A graduate of the Norilsk Industrial Institute since the 1990s is in a close relationship with the current minister of energy by Alexander Novakas, whose deputy he was until recently. The 46-year-old Texler is called the "manager of the new wave", noting, the truth is that he has no political experience.
If Dubrovsky decided to leave the post at the end of his first cadence, then the head of the republic of Altai Alexander Berdnikov was over 13 years old at the head of the region. Experts call his reign "Lost Decade." Like, during this time, no progress in the socio-economic state of the region did not happen. The Chairman of the Council of Non-Profit Partnership "GLONASS" was appointed Vrio of the Head of the Republic of Oleg Khorokhordin. Like Texler, Horochordin has a very conventional attitude towards the region, which is appointed by I.O., is a native of the neighboring, Altai Territory. But he is also a "young technocrat", which now has a request in the Kremlin.
But the castle in Kalmykia looks non-standard. Taking the resignation of the head of the Republic of Alexey Orlov, who was at the helm of 8 years old, the president appointed the acting athlete-kickboxer, 38-year-old Batha Hasikov. Of course, Batu Hasikov recently worked as an adviser to the head of Rosmolodege, and was also a representative in the co-advocacy from Kalmykia. But his reputation is not safe: in 2016 he was deprived of a scientific degree of candidate of political sciences for plagiarism.
Political analyst Abbas Galymovit believes that the main criterion for the appointment of VRIO - for a person should be patted some "dear people." "And it can become a big problem. A good deputy minister does not necessarily prove to be a strong public politician, and you do not calculate it in advance. Therefore, the Kremlin risks the fact that the new Virio, instead of reassuring the situation, on the contrary, provokes a surge of discontent, "he commented on the" MK "new appointments.
Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev Also called new appointments ambiguous:
Perhaps the most loud in Kalmykia. Of course, Hacikov has a good biography: an athlete, kickboxer, a public figure. It is clear that kickboxing is a good thing and the sport must be developed. But work in Rosmolodezh or membership in the Federation Council is not economic activity. And for Kalmykia, the most important is economic growth. In addition, he has reputational problems and the lack of a certain competence is obvious. Although at the stage of elections, the popularity of the athlete will help him, and then it will depend on whether it will be able to form a capable team of people who will be specialists in those issues in which he himself does not understand well.
In Chelyabinsk, it is also interesting, because I had rumored that the Texler could lead the Murmansk region. The question arises about the bench. It should noted that the number of people who refuse to become governors are growing from the year. Ungrateful it is now a matter.
As for the general selection criteria, all these people should be systemic, loyal to the Kremlin, without brightly pronounced political ambitions and political views that have an idea of \u200b\u200bhow the federal power structure works, what is the role of the presidential administration and so on. But now, apparently, the spare bench is not too large, and therefore the unified approach can not always be implemented.
Even at the beginning of the week, the media announced with reference to reliable sources in the Kremlin's resignation of ten (!) Governors. Vladimir Putin Already accepted the resignation of ex-governor Samara region Nikolai Merkushkin, ex-governor Nizhny Novgorod region Valeria Shantseva and the former chapter of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug Igor Kushina, and head Dagestan Ramazan Abdulatipov and governor Krasnoyarsk Territory Viktor Tolokonsky announced the intentions to resign, without waiting for the appropriate presidential decree. Now all regional political elites worries one question: What governors will be the following?
Whom of the governors will decide to leave Putin?
The political community of Russia is now trying to predict the change of presidential personnel in the regions. The Online regions interviewed experts who called the three most likely governors who will soon have to declare their resignation. This is the head Primorsky Krai. Vladimir Miklushevsky, governor. Omsk region Viktor Nazarov and governor Murmansk region Marina Kovtun. According to estimates of the RR expert club, the head of the republic is now in the risk area Khakassia Viktor ZiminHead North Ossetia Vyacheslav Bitarov and governor Vladimir region Svetlana Orlova. Also certain risks of disposal from the governor's pool are preserved for Vladimir Vladimirov(Governor. Stavropol Territory), Oleg Kovalev (Governor. Ryazan region), Vladimir Ledovnoye (Governor. Magadan region) I. Evgeny Kuivashev (governor Sverdlovsk region).
It should be noted that on the eve of the Minchenko Consulting experts in parallel with us expanded the list of probable candidates for disposal. This list is distinguished by the permissibility of the governor's resignation Novosibirsk region Vladimir GorodetskyHead Altai RegionAlexandra Carlin and chapters Kalmykia Alexey Orlova. Also political analysts predict the resignation to the governor St. Petersburg George Poltavchenko and supervisor Ivanovo region Pavel Kokkov.
If you combine the study of two expert groups, the same chances of reaching out of the governor's pool Viktor Nazarova (Omsk Oblast), Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorsky Krai) I. Marina Kovtun (Murmansk region). The term of the powers of these governors expires this year, which increases their care chances. Also most experts are resigned by the governor Vladimir region Svetlana Orlova. Next year Svetlana Orlova It will be 64 years old and this may become a decisive factor in the conditions of an explicit policy of rejuvenation of personnel held by the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation.
The governor of the Vladimir region Svetlana Orlova may resign due to age
"If we are not talking about the head of the National Republic to get good to re-election at that age, you need to have either a strong influence or the minimum interest of external players to the region", - notes the political analyst Mikhail Nezhmakov.
The head of the expert group on the estimates of the September resignation of the expert club RR notes that the chances of resigning the governor Vladimir region Increases criminal case against the vice-governor Elena Mazanko According to the facts of obtaining bribes in large and especially large-scale sizes in a total amount of at least three million rubles (p. "B" Ch.5, Part 6 of Article 290 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). Recall that, according to the investigation, Mazanko Received bribes from entrepreneurs for facilitating the conclusion of state contracts for repair work in the building of the regional administration and the supply of furniture.
Governor of the Kursk Region Aleksandr Mikhailov in the list of "Eternally Exit" Governors
However, as political scientists and political technologists of the RR expert club emphasize, talking about "departure candidates" among the operating heads of the regions is very careful. The fact is that the bad rating of the governor does not give a warranty for unambiguous care. Much solid informal relations of regional leaders with influential political clans in Russia. Therefore, possible retirements are probable, but not always accurate. You can recall the examples of the "ever-leaving" governors who were dismissed from almost the first years of staying in office. Some of them have already managed to switch to the category of "Old-timers" as the head Kursk region Alexander Mikhailov.
Such a method of batch change of governors has become already familiar in the last five years. However, one or two leaders are excluded from the preliminary lists, who continue to work on their position. According to "Gazeta.Ru", there is also an expanded list of candidates for replacement from their posts. It has more than ten surnames. Final personnel solutions apparently accepts the head of state.
If the political Olympus leaves at once a ten chapter of subjects, it will be a significant updating of the governor's corps.
The last time such a large-scale rotation occurred during the presidency, when ten heads of regions were gone from posts, including such heavyweights of the Yeltsin Conscription, as, Mintimer Shaimiev, Alexander Filippenko.
People newly appointed in their place will work with the prefix "VRIO" (temporarily acting) and will go to the polls that will be held simultaneously with the presidentials in March 2018.
Not all governors "sitting on suitcases" have low ratings, but even successful ones are conflicts with elites or city authorities,
Thus, the head of the Murmansk region managed to increase its ratings, but conflicts with regional elites. The Nizhny Novgorod governor is considered heavy, but he became a side of a protracted conflict with the mayor of Nizhny Novgorod. The Altai leader has relatively good ratings, but experts note "relatively low popularity" and "emphasized the hard style of management."
The head of the Novosibirsk region has no high ratings and conflict with the mayor communist. The governor of the Omsk region was able to strengthen its position, but remains an "apolitical figure."
The head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, heads the region since 2014, and before that, for a long time was the mayor of Novosibirsk and the governor of the region. As noted in the last "rating of the survival of the governors" of the Foundations "Petersburg policy" and "Minchenko Consulting", he still "swelling fits into the local mentality."
The Governor of the Ivanovo region also has low ratings in survival rating research, and the area "is one of the record holders in criminal cases against representatives of the management elite."
It is worth noting that the resignation of the governor of the Samara region was held a long time ago. Odiotic political figure, he caused a lot of discontent among the inhabitants of the region with his statements "on the edge of the foul", which was confined against themselves different groups of the population. In the last election, a number of scandals occurred in this area, which caused the center's discontent.
Governor elections, canceled in 2004, were revived in the summer of 2012. However, a municipal filter was introduced, which complicated participation in elections for representatives of the opposition. In the case of the governor's departure to resign, it is not a local leader, but the appointed Kremlin.