4 Concept, signs and classification of risks

4.1. The concept of risk and its essence

In conditions market economy Risk is a key element of entrepreneurship. An entrepreneur who knows how to risk in time, often turns out to be rewarded.

In the conditions of political and economic instability, the degree of risk increases significantly. In modern crisis conditions of the economy of Russia, the problem of risk strengthening is very relevant, which is confirmed by the data on an increase in the unprofitability of industrial enterprises.

In the practice of risk management allocate two key concepts - this is " risk", Which characterizes this situation when the onset of some events is very likely and can be quantified, and" uncertainty", Which implies the impossibility of assessing the likelihood of occurrence of such events.

The existence of risk is directly associated with uncertainty.

It is heterogeneous in the form of manifestation and content. The risk is one of the ways to withdraw the uncertainty, which represents ignorance of a reliable, lack of unambiguity. Across the attention on this property of risk is important due to the fact that optimizing management and regulation in practice, ignoring objective and subjective sources of uncertainty, unpromising.

In the classification of uncertainty in the implementation of entrepreneurship, the following types of uncertainty can be distinguished:

human uncertainty is associated with the impossibility of accurate prediction of the behavior of people in the process of work. People differ from each other level of education, experience, creative abilities, interests. Individual reactions are changing from day to day, depending on the well-being, mood, contacts with other people, etc.;

technical uncertainty (significantly less than human uncertainty) is associated with the reliability of equipment, predictability of production processes, complexity of technology, automation level, production volume, update rates, etc.;

social uncertainty is determined by the desire of people to form social ties and help each other, behave in accordance with mutually accepted obligations, official relations, roles, incentives, conflicts, traditions, etc. The structure of such relationships is not defined.

Risk - This is the possibility of adverse situations during the implementation of plans and execution of enterprise budgets.

There are two main risk functions - stimulating and protective.

Stimulating function It has two aspects: constructive and destructive. The first manifests itself in the fact that the risk in solving economic problems performs the role of a catalyst, especially in solving innovative investment solutions. The second aspect is expressed in the fact that the adoption and implementation of solutions with unreasonable risk lead to adventurism. Adventurism - a type of risk, objectively containing a significant probability of the impossibility of an intended purpose, although persons who make such decisions are not aware of this.

Protective function There are also two aspects: historical and genetic and socio-legal. The content of the first is that people are always spontaneously looking for forms and means of protection against possible unwanted consequences. In practice, this is manifested in the creation of insurance reserve funds, insurance of entrepreneurial risks. The essence of the second aspect is the need to introduce into business, labor, criminal law categories of risk legality.

Risk is inherent in a number of features, among which you can allocate:

inconsistency;

alternative;

uncertainty.

Contraimless It is manifested in the fact that, on the one hand, the risk has important economic, political and spiritual and moral consequences, since accelerates public technical progress, has a positive impact on public opinion and the spiritual atmosphere of society. On the other hand, the risk leads to adactorism, voluntarism, subjectivism, inhibits social progress, generates certain socio-economic and moral costs, if in the conditions of incomplete initial information, the risk situation of the alternative is chosen without taking into account the objective patterns of the development of the phenomenon in relation to which The decision is made.

Alternativeness implies the need to choose two or several possible solutions. The lack of choices takes off talk about risk. Where there is no choice, the risky situation does not arise and, therefore, there will be no risk.

In the domestic economic science, there are essentially generally accepted theoretical regulations on entrepreneurial risk, risk assessment methods in relation to one or another production situations and types business activitiesAlthough B. last years Scientific works appeared, in which, when considering the issues of planning, economic activities of commercial organizations, the ratio of demand and proposals are affected by risk issues.

World economic science represents the classic and neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk. In the study of entrepreneurial profits such representatives classical theorySo J. Mill and I. Senior, differed in the structure of the entrepreneurial income percentage (as a share on invested capital), the wage of the entrepreneur and the risk fee (as a refund of the possible risk associated with entrepreneurial activities).

In the classical theory, entrepreneurial risk is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that may occur as a result of the selected solution.

The risk here is nothing but the damage that is applied by the implementation of this solution. Such a unilateral interpretation of the essence of risk caused a sharp objection to the part of foreign economists, which resulted in the development of another understanding of the content of entrepreneurial risk.

In the 30s. XX century Economists A. Marshall and A. Piga developed the foundations neoclassical theory Entrepreneurial risk, as follows: An entrepreneur working in the face of uncertainty, the profit of which is a random variable, when concluding the transaction, is guided by two criteria:

sizes of expected profits;

the magnitude of its possible oscillations.

According to the neoclassical risk theory, the behavior of the entrepreneur is due the concept of utmost utility. This means that in the presence of two options, for example, capital investments that give the same expected profit, the entrepreneur chooses the option in which the fluctuations of the expected profit less.

If a small number of solutions is taken, it is impossible to calculate that deviations from the expected profits are mutually equal, because in this case the law large numbers It does not work. That is why the entrepreneur, making a decision, should take into account the oscillations of profits and choose the option that gives the same result, but characterized by smaller fluctuations.

Thus, the "risk" category can be determined as a danger of potentially possible, likely loss of resources or income income compared to the option, which is designed for the rational use of resources in this form of entrepreneurial activity.

In other words, the risk is the threat that the entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses or will receive income below those for which he expected.

In absolute terms, the risk can determine the amount of possible losses in material and real (physical) or value (monetary) expression, unless the damage is to such a measurement.

In relative terms, the risk is defined as the magnitude of possible losses, attributed to a certain base, in the form of which is most convenient to make either the financial condition of the commercial organization, or the total costs of resources for this type of business, or the expected income (profit) from entrepreneurship.

Although the effects of risk are most often manifested in the form of financial losses or the impossibility of obtaining expected profits, but risk is not only unwanted results of decisions taken. With certain embodiments of entrepreneurial projects, there is not only danger to not achieve the intended result, but also the likelihood exceeding the expected profit. This is the entrepreneurial risk, which is characterized by a combination of the possibility of achieving both unwanted and especially favorable deviations from the planned results.

4.2. Risk classification

One of the first classifications of risks was engaged J.M. Keynes. He approached this issue by a subject carrying out investment activities, highlighting three main types of risks:

Keynes notes that the specified risks are closely intertwined - so the borrower, participating in the risk project, seeks to get as much difference between the percentage of the loan and the rate of profitability; The creditor, given the high risk, seeks to maximize the difference between the pure rate of interest and its interest rate. As a result, the risks are "superimposed" on each other that investors do not always notice.

At the moment, in almost every book on risk issues, one of the options for classifying risks is given. In most cases, the chosen criteria do not allow to cover all the many risks, but a number of major risks in the economic literature appear. Based on these, they are quite frequent attempts to classify subsets of risks included in these general concepts.

operational Risk (Operational Risk);

market Risk (Market Risk);

credit Risk (Credit Risk).

Such a similar approach adhere to leading Western banks, specialists of the Basel Committee, developers of analyzing systems, measurement and risk management systems, as well as Russian specialists.

To these basic risks add some more options encountered in a particular sequence:

business Risk (Business Risk);

liquidity risk (Liquidity Risk);

legal risk (Legal Risk);

risk associated with regulatory authorities (regulatory risk).

In addition to the above classification, risks can be classified according to other features.

For example, Adrian Slyovakki, director of the consulting company Oliver Wyman and the author of the book "Uppete: The 7 Strategies for Turning Big Threats Into Growthroughs" highlights 7 main types of risks.

Branch. If the state is weakened by control in one or another, players in this market may not keep their positions.

Technology. The new technology on which the organization lay high hopes may not justify expectations.

Brand. His reputation can deteriorate sharply, which will entail a decline in the company's profits.

Competitor. If a new strong player appears on the market, it can lead a significant part of your customers.

Client. If customer preferences are changed, and the organization will not have time to respond, it will seriously affect its profits.

Project. An important project may fail, and as a result, the company will lose its position in the market.

Stagnation. If the company stops growing and developing - a failure is waited with a large share of probability.

In this case, the basis of the classification is the sources and the environment of the company.

In consequences, it is customary to share risks into three categories:

The basis for the next risk classification is also the nature of the impact on the performance of the enterprise.

So, risks are divided into two types:

It is obvious that the above classifications are interrelated among themselves, and the second carries more general.

There are a large number of classifications depending on the specificity of the company's activities. Separately, investment risks are classified, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc. This is due to the fact that each enterprise is very individual, since it is created, exists and functions under certain conditions inherent in him. Therefore, it is impossible to determine a clear list of risks that should be inherent in any enterprise.

As a conditionally universal classification, consider an approach based on the division of risks to external and internal (Fig. 4.1). This approach can be used to build a hierarchical structure of the company's risks.

It should be emphasized that, although the categories of external risk are inherently independent of the enterprise, however, they have a direct connection with the activities of the enterprise itself.

As we see, the reasons causing external economic risks can be in the internal environment of the enterprise. Thus, none of the external risks is "purely external".

At the same time, internal risk categories are formed on cost-based centers. Cost centers are individual divisions of the enterprise to which costs can be attributed. From here you can allocate risks: transport, equipped, manufacturing, risk of finished products, sales and managerial.

As for the risks belonging to the category of external, these types of internal risk may be partially due to the causes that lie outside the enterprise.

Further classification of risks can be made according to the structural divisions of the enterprise, types of products, factors of production, etc. But since the range of products and the scale of production in small enterprises are not so wide, then the optimal feature for the classification of risks is production factors.

Production factors are one for all enterprises with a sign, because the risks embodied in them are characteristic of all enterprises and organizations, although, of course, they are not the same for reasons for the occurrence, the magnitude, possible consequences and the directions of their elimination.

Depending on the spheres of manifestation Entrepreneurial risk is divided into production, financial, investment. Production risk it may be directly related to the risk of a complete stop of production: the risk of prehasting the source materials, components, purchased semi-finished products; the risk of inconclusion of contracts for the sale of products; the risk of buyer's refusal from the received and paid products; the risk of liquidity of the goods due to changes in the quality assessment of its consumer properties; price risk of sold products on different market segments; property risk associated with death or damage to equipment, buildings and structures, raw materials, materials, finished products in warehouse, etc.

Financial risk divided into credit, interest, currency risk; risks associated with the purchasing powerfulness of money (inflationary or deflationary risks); The risk of a breakdown of concluded agreements on the provision of loans, carrying out joint projects, i.e. the risk of forming the structure of the financial resources of the enterprise; risk of misunderstanding or late money for shipped products (risk of receivables); Risk of bankruptcy as business partners (counterparties of implementers, suppliers, etc.) and the enterprise itself.

Investment risk associated with the directions of investment activity of the enterprise. Allocate the risk of investing in securities, the so-called "portfolio risk", and the risk of new projects (the risk of technological innovations, the risk of project implementation, the risk of "innovation", the risk of changes in the return of the project, the risk of direct financial losses).

The next stage of constructing the classification of economic risks of specific factors is the most time consuming and responsible. Here it is necessary to specify the risk of production factors in order to identify the causes of the occurrence. The base of classification may be as follows.

If possible, predictions are predictable and unpredictable.

The intelligence of creating a situation of risk (crimes, service errors, etc.).

For reasons of occurrence.

At the location of detection.

By time detection.

According to the centers of responsibility.

According to the perpetrators of the occurrence.

If possible, insurance.

By duration of action.

According to detection methods.

By ways to minimize consequences.

According to the stages of the production cycle.

According to the stages technological process.

For production conditions.

According to the stages of the life cycle of products produced by the enterprise.

At the place of finding products.

According to the stages of the life cycle of products implemented by the enterprise.

By types of products (by nomenclature, assortment).

By type of production organization.

In terms of prices for produced products.

By duration and storage conditions of products in the enterprise.

By duration and storage conditions of raw materials in the enterprise.

By consumer products.

On sales channels, etc.

As we have said, it is impossible to develop a general list of risks that could be applied to any enterprise. At each enterprise, the construction of the classification of economic risks, threatening enterprise, is preceded by a preliminary organizational and research work, which is based on the classification of risks considered by us.

This work consists of several interconnected stages.

Stage 1. You need to choose the team of highly qualified specialists who know well-known area of \u200b\u200bactivity and the activities of the enterprise and capable of developing a list of external and internal risks possible for it.

Stage 2. After the selection of the expert group, you must prepare the necessary toolkit for research on the identification of economic risks of the enterprise: a program of research, a questionnaire for conducting experts survey, methods, the key to processing and evaluating its results, the list of necessary technical means and software.

Stage 3. At this stage, a group of selected experts by the method of "brainstorming" collects and generate ideas. Here must be compliance with the following basic conditions:

for the statement of as much as possible ideas, opinions, estimates on the potential risks of the enterprise is stimulated by the maximum activity of experts;

no criticism is not allowed to expressed ideas.

Stage 4. Based on the discussion of the studied ideas, a list of potential economic risks is approved and work is carried out on the analysis of risks and to develop a program to prevent, minimize or eliminate the consequences of risks.

It should be remembered that the key element of the success of the list of risks (it is also called the registry of risks) is the qualifications of experts, since the common cause of risk management errors is the formation of expert groups or from pure theorists or from situational practitioners.

risk classification

Clearly developed risk classification does not exist. Moreover, there are over 40 different criteria Risks and, accordingly, 220 types of risks, in connection with which there is no single understanding in the economic literature in this matter. There are a large number of classifications depending on the specificity of the company's activities. Separately classified investment risks, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc.

Summarizing this, it should be noted that economists are engaged in the problem of risks and their classification. Established criteria, allowing to unambiguously classify all risks, does not exist due to the specifics of the activities of economic entities, various manifestations of risks and their various sources. It should be noted that all classifications are very conditional in nature, and in practice it is often difficult to carry out a clear boundary between various groups of risks.

Depending on the main cause of the occurrence (for basic, or natural sign) Risks are divided into natural-natural (fire, flood), environmental (environmental pollution), political (change in the political situation in the country), transport (related transportation of goods by transport), commercial (risk of loss in the process of financial economic activity).

Under political risks It is understood as the impossibility of exercising economic activities as a result of hostilities, revolutions, aggravation of the inner situation, nationalization, confiscation of goods and enterprises, refusal of the new government to fulfill the obligations of the old, deferment (moratorium) for external payments, changes in tax legislation, prohibiting or restricting the conversion of national currency in the currency Payment.

Commercial risks on structural signs are divided into property, industrial, trade and financial.

Property risk - Probability of loss of property due to theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems, etc. Production risk is associated with a loss of stopping production due to the impact of various factors, such as death and damage to the main production and covered fundsintroduction into production new technique and technology. Under trading risks It is implied for a possible loss due to delay of payments during the transportation period of goods, etc.

Financial risks - This is the probability of cash loss. Financial risks are divided into risks associated with the purchasing power of money, and the risks associated with the investment of capital.

The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include inflationary and deflationary risks, currency risks and liquidity risk. The risks associated with the investment of capital are divided into the risk of missed benefits, the risk of reducing the profitability and risk of direct financial losses.

Inflationary risk There is an increase in inflation when the received money incomes are depreciated. Deflation risk There is a place with an increase in deflation when the price level drops, entailing revenues.

Currency risks - The danger of currency losses associated with changing the course of one currency relative to the other. Risk of liquidity It is defined as the possibility of losses in the implementation of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality or consumer value.

Risk of missed benefit - The risk of the onset of indirect (side) financial damage (incomplete profit) as a result of the impiency of any event (insurance, hedging, investment, etc.).

Risk of reducing returns - The ability to reduce interest or dividends on portfolio investments, on deposits and loans. Risk reduction of yield includes percentage and credit risks.

Interest risks - the risk of losses of credit institutions from exceeding the interest rate to pay over a percentage of obtaining, as well as risks of investors' loss due to a change in dividends, interest on bonds, certificates and other securities.

Credit risks - Danger of non-payment by the borrower of the principal debt and percent on it. Credit risks also include the possibility of non-payment of interest and amounts on debt securities. Credit risk can act as a variety of risk of direct financial losses.

Risk of direct financial losses Includes stock risk As a risk of losses from stock transactions (the risk of non-payment for commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission of the brokerage company), selective risks as the risks of improper choice of the method of investment of capital, the type of securities in the formation of the investment portfolio, risk of bankruptcy (Danger As a result of improper choice of the method of investing capital, full loss by an entrepreneur of equity capital and the inability to settle the obligations assumed, as a result of which the entrepreneur becomes bankrupt).

On risk manifestation (The type of loss or the moment of deviation from the intended purpose) can be repelled from the analysis of losses, including material, labor financial, time loss and special types of loss.

Material Types of losses are manifested in an unforeseen entrepreneurial project of additional costs or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed losses, their units are used. It is most natural to identify material losses in the same units in which the amount of this type of material resources is measured, that is, physical units Weight, volume, square, etc.

However, put together the losses measured in different units, and to express their one value is not possible. You can not fold kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculus of losses in value terms is inevitable, in monetary units. For this, the physical dimension loss is translated into the value measurement by multiplying the price of the unit of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can immediately be assessed in monetary terms. Having an assessment of the likely losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, to really reduce them together, following the rules of action with random values \u200b\u200band their probabilities.

Labor losses Represent losses of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In the direct dimension, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days or just hours of working time. Translation of labor losses in value, monetary expression is carried out by multiplying labor for the cost (price) of one hour.

Financial losses -this is a direct cash damage associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of cash and securities. In addition, financial losses can be with lacking or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, during non-return of debts, unpaid the buyer of products supplied to it, decreasing revenue due to lower prices for sold products and services. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, a change in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional to the legal seizure of enterprises in the state (republican, local) budget. Along with irrevocable, temporary financial losses, due to freezing accounts, late issuance of funds, deferred debt payment.

Time loss There are when the process of entrepreneurial activity goes slower than was scheduled. Direct evaluation of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining a scheduled result. To transfer an assessment of time loss in value measurement, it is necessary to establish which loss of income, profits from entrepreneurship are able to lead random time loss.

Special types of loss There are in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as as a result of other adverse social and moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to determine in quantitative, especially in value terms. For each of the types of loss, the initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude is produced during a certain time, covering the month, the period of functioning of the business. When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses for risk assessment, it is important not only to establish all sources of risk, but also to identify what sources are dominated.

In principle, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that are not amenable to direct calculation, direct forecasting and therefore not taken into account in the entrepreneurial project. If the losses can be foreseen in advance, they should not be considered as losses, but as inevitable costs and enter the calculation calculation. So, the foreseeable price movement, taxes, their change in the course of economic activity, the entrepreneur must take into account in the business plan. Only due to the imperfection of used methods for calculating entrepreneurial activity or not enough deep development of a business plan, systematic errors can be considered as a loss in the sense that they are able to change the expected result for the worse. Therefore, before assessing the risk due to the action of purely random factors, it is extremely desirable to separate the systematic component of the loss from random

Risk classification is also possible. on the realization of the risk event (This approach combines and the cause of the occurrence, and the scope of manifestation of risk, for example, the risk of cash loss as a result of the refusal of counterparties from its obligations).

Based on the approach, which is based on the consideration of sources and risk factors with the allocation of three stages of production and sales activities, risks are expedient to divide into the following groups:

- risks of supply;

- production and technological risks;

- Sales risks.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to other features.

By consequences It is customary to share risks into three categories:
– permissible risk - this is the risk of solving, as a result of which the enterprise faces the loss of profits; Within this zone, entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. losses occur, but they do not exceed the size of the expected profits;

– critical risk - this is a risk in which the company faces the loss of revenue; In other words, the critical risk zone is characterized by the risk of losses that are deliberately exceeding the expected profit and, in the extreme case, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project;

– catastrophic risk - the risk in which the insolvency of the enterprise arises; Losses can achieve values \u200b\u200bequal to the property state of the enterprise. Also, this group includes any risk associated with direct danger to the life of people or the emergence of environmental disasters.

The basis for the next risk classification is also the nature of the impact on the results of the enterprise. So, risks are divided into two types:

· clean - mean the possibility of obtaining a loss or zero result;

· speculative - They are expressed in the likelihood of obtaining both positive and negative results.

Obviously, the two last classifications are interrelated each other, and the second is more general.

According to one of the approaches expressed by Romanov, VS, the theory of risk allows you to allocate the most general groups Risks 30:

1. Organizational risks: This item can include risks associated with company management errors, its employees; The problems of the internal control system, poorly developed rules of work, etc., that is, the risks associated with the internal organization of the company's work.

2. Market risks - These are the risks associated with the instability of the economic situation: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of reducing demand for products, broadcast currency risk, the risk of liquidity loss, etc.

3. Credit risks - The risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations on time. These risks exist both from banks (the classical risk of non-repayment of the loan) and enterprises with receivables and organizations operating in the securities market

4. Legal risks - these are the risks of losses related to the fact that legislation or was not taken into account at all, or changed during the transaction period; Risk of non-compliance of legislation different countries; The risk of incorrectly drawn documentation, as a result of which the counterparty cannot fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.

5. Technical and production risks - risk of damage to the environment (environmental risk); The risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; The risk of disrupting the functioning of the object due to errors in designing and installation, a number of construction risks, etc.

In one way or another, the allocated risk groups are present in the activities of all business entities. This basic classification is complemented by private classifications based on the specifics of economic entities.

This classification fully covers many risks and, accordingly, allows you to most correctly approach the problem of identifying risk-forming factors and risk research.

Complementary and expanding the classification proposed by Keynes, modern science offers to classify economic risks inherent in economic entities, highlighting:

1. Production risks.

2. Commercial risks.

3. Financial risks.

4. Investment risks.

Consider each of them.

Production risks - This is the opportunity to not profit or incur damages as a result of ineffective productivity management, product quality and personnel, errors in choosing a production development strategy. This group is, first of all, the risks of reducing the economic profitability of production activities.

Under the production of goods, we will understand the process of buying resources (raw materials, materials, semi-finished products, work force etc.), transform them through the technological process to other goods and the sale of the latter for profit. Production of goods is a more complex process than their resale, since it also includes the transformation of resources (goods) from one logistical form to another - ready-made goods. There is also a certain shift in time from the moment of purchase of raw materials, materials and other components required in the manufacture of goods, until the production and sale of finished products. In the economy of such a temporary shift is called a temporary lag.

Thus, the production risk includes not only the risk of the seller, but also the risk of the manufacturer, who lies in the fact that the economic situation in the market may change and this product will become non-competitive. At the same time, the cost of production can be such that the price of the goods will not cover the costs incurred in its production. The reasons for such a phenomenon can also be very diverse. This, for example, the rise in prices for raw materials, energy resources and transportation costs, natural disasters, falling demand for the proposed products, etc.

As the main causes of production risk, the following can be brought:

Macroeconomic factors that do not depend on the enterprise, such as an unforeseen increase in prices for resources, a change in the exchange rate of the domestic monetary unit, the shortcomings of the monetary policy of the state;

Insufficient market research, weakening of competition, loss of permanent suppliers of raw materials and consumers of products;

The incompetent leadership of the enterprise, expressed in the adoption of poorly thought-out and informed decisions or, on the contrary, in inaction in conditions, when the enterprise's effort is needed.

But even with a favorable economic situation in the market, the poor organization of the technological process may also be the cause of unprofitable production. For example, the creation of excessive stocks of raw materials and finished products is donated coveragesthat in turn worsens the technical and economic indicators of production.

To assess the production risk, it is necessary to calculate the dynamics of prices not only on finished products, but also on all components necessary in the manufacture of this product, justify the optimal organization manufacturing process and management of them.

So, production risks are the opportunity to not profit or incur damages as a result of inefficient productivity management, product quality and personnel, as well as errors in choosing a production development strategy. This group is, first of all, the risks of reducing the economic profitability of production activities caused by:

· Low load level production capacity, decreasing revenue due to errors in the selection of product differentiation strategy;

• an increase in implicit (alternative) costs, direct and variable costs;
• using low-efficient production factors;
• inefficient system of maintaining labor loyalty, motivation to work and professional mobility;
• the choice of a strategy focused on the creation of competitive technological advantages, but to keep the market segments by restricting access to its competitors.

Commercial risks Usually manifest themselves in commercial activities, under which we will understand the process of buying some products at one price for resale at a different price in order to profit. As a rule, the purchase of goods and their subsequent resale occur with the rupture in time. But since the situation on the goods market is changing, then it follows the main cause of commercial risk - the goods purchased earlier for sale, no longer finds demand at a prescribed price. The seller cannot receive that profit on which it was counted when buying a product.

The reasons for such a phenomenon can be the most diverse - from seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply and changes in the purchasing potential of the population to natural disasters and many others. It is extremely difficult to predict the state of consumer demand to predict, since it is almost impossible to consider all the reasons for its change.

For example, if we take into account the stages of the system's life cycle (four stages - birth, growth, maturity, old age), engaged in commercial activities, and the competitive position of the goods in the market (five situations - weak, durable, noticeable, strong, leading), then we get a set of possible Situations displayed by a matrix in 20 cells. Such dimension of the projected situations leads to a fundamentally unreasonable uncertainty.

Thus, commercial risks are an opportunity to not profit or incur damages as a result of exposure to sales of the following events:

· Reduce solvency of major consumer groups;

· Violations of the proportions of market equilibrium due to the limitations of competition;

· Downturn business activity due to the cyclical economy and changes in the proportions of its development;

· Changes in consumer behavior and attitudes towards price risks of markets.

Financial risks - This is an opportunity to incur losses or to not be profitable as a result of inflation, changes in the exchange rate, inefficient profit management and credit resources, unreliability of information on expected cash flow streams. Financial solutions are objective and accurate as much as the national model of the financial market corresponds to the criteria for market efficiency, how reliable and accurately accurately the information base on the possible changes in the full expected income in the transition of the management system from one state to another.

Financial risks arise in the finance management process of the enterprise. Most often there are currency, interest and portfolio risks.

· Currency risks:

· Operational;

· Translation;

· Economic.

· Interest risks:

· Positional;

· Portfolio;

· Economic.

· Portfolio risks:

· Systematic;

· Non-systematic.

Investment risks - This is the ability to launch a net economic profit or incur damages as a result of a reduction in stock potential, errors in assessing your own economic condition, inefficient and irrational use of capital resources and R & D aimed at creating new production facilities, market infrastructure, reserves and housing. Investment risks caused by asymmetricity of economic information, violation of property rights, design errors, estimates of the optimal investment, sources of financing and future revenue from sales investment projects, promote:

· An increase in destructive net risks (loss of control over resources, destruction of production complexes, equipment breakdown, damage to other market participants);

· Reduce the value of possible net economic profits, which was defined as a threshold (net economic profit \u003d income - explicit costs - implicit (alternative) costs \u003d accounting profit - implicit costs);

· Reduction of yield equity below the level of normal profit rate;

· Reducing stock potential;

· Direct loss and losses;

· Losses in the withdrawal and movement of technological capital into other territories, industries, production;

· Losses and losses associated with innovation activities.

Combining part of classification features, it is possible to offer the following classification of groups of risks inherent in the enterprise:

1. External risks.

1.1. Unpredictable risks:

- measures of state impact in the areas of taxation, pricing, etc.;

- natural disasters;

- criminal and economic crimes;

- External effects: environmental, social, economic (bankruptcy of partners, clients, disruption of supplies), political (prohibition of activities, etc.).

1.2. Predictable external risks: - Market risk (price change, consumer requirements, conjuncture, competition, inflation, loss of position in the market)
- Operational risk (violation of the rules of operation and safety, retreat from project objectives, the impossibility of supporting the working condition of machines, equipment, structures, etc.).

2. Internal risks.

2.1. Internal organizational risks:

- breakdown work due to lack of labor, materials, delivery delays, unsatisfactory conditions, changes in previously agreed requirements and the emergence of additional requirements from customers, errors in planning, unsatisfactory operational management of the process of implementing strategies;

- Extermination of funds due to the breakdown of work plans, ineffective strategy of supply and sales, low personnel qualifications, errors in drawing up estimates and budgets, presentation of a claim by partners, suppliers and consumers;
2.2. Internal technical risks:

- change the technology of work, errors in project documentation, vehicle breakdowns, low quality supplied materials.

1. Other risks:

2. - legal;

3. - Transport;

4. - Risks associated with the health of people, etc.

- Market Risk (Market Risk);

- Credit Risk (Credit Risk).

Such a similar approach adhere to leading Western banks, specialists of the Basel Committee, developers of analyzing systems, measurement and risk management systems, as well as Russian specialists.

To these basic risks add some more options encountered in a particular sequence:

- Business Risk (BUSINESS RISK);

- liquidity risk (Liquidity Risk);

- legal risk (Legal Risk);

- Risk associated with regulatory authorities (Regulatory Risk).

The last 4 risks appear not in all developments. Thus, the risk associated with regulatory authorities is most relevant for banking organizations, therefore it is more often found in the areas related to banking activities. Liquidity risk Some authors include market risks.

Specific western classification Risk is that in these countries there is a steady banking system, as well as developed markets: currency and securities. Thus, most of the work devoted to risk issues is inextricably linked with these institutions, as well as organs, their regulatory.

A variety of valid risks peculiar to the activities of commercial organizations is great. And their number is constantly growing, because not only production technologies are complicated, but in the context of the development of competition, management methods undergo changes, which also contributes to the complication of the risky events architecture. Scientists of academic and sectoral science find all new types of risks, and they are required to be classified for identification purposes and efficient management.

Basic approaches to risk risks

The concept and classification of risks occupies key places in the scientific and methodological knowledge of risk management, one of the youngest disciplines of the modern management doctrine. Many species categories are universal, and almost all companies and organization of the business environment are subject to them. However, there are activities that are consistent with specific risks. For example, banking and insurance areas of business have their own unique groups of risks that are manifested in other industries only episodically.

The species manifold of detectable threats is large: from terrorist attacks and man-made disasters before bankruptcies caused by external crisis phenomena, structural breakdown at the level of entire industries or a separate enterprise. Modern world Gradually, but steadily retracts into the turbulence zone, if you can say so. The types of risks invisible in Russia arise, caused by:

• transnationalization of business;
• entered by the sanctions mode;
• response measures of the Government of the Russian Federation;
• local military conflicts at the boundaries of the country;
• interstate black PR-shares.

Paradoxically, but such types of risks as losses as a result of computer failures, personnel cuts, bankruptcy of the enterprise due to failure credit organization Restructuring debts, against the background of occurring events no longer seem so tragic. Increasingly, the so-called "domino effect" is manifested when the bankruptcy of a large organization is the basis for the emergence of a series of losses of enterprises associated with it close economic bonds.

With risks, the company faces different phases of its life cycle. The main conditions for their occurrence are formed due to the uncertainty of the sources of the results of the situation in the business. To similar sources include:

• economic activity of the enterprise;
• activity of the head of the organization;
• insufficiency of informational decision making (state of the external environment).

Characterized by an example of an organization whose management makes a decision not to own complete information About transaction partners, their financial condition, legality. This often carries the risk of future losses. Another example is the lack of information about recent changes in tax legislationwhich makes the threat of fines for the enterprise. The essence and classification of risks allow to reveal their belonging to various species groups due to the main distinctive featureswhich are presented with tabular form further.

Division of risk species according to the main classification features

Dividing risks to the degree of admissibility and by dynamism

The classification of risks according to the degree of danger (admissibility) will allow us to focus on on forming basic mechanisms of management of them. Recall the three main steps of the concept: to identify the factors of danger, evaluate them and reduce the threat from the developed events. Based on these actions, the head decides what level of risk he can afford in existing conditions of activity. In this regard, the following types of risk are distinguished:

• permissible;
• critical;
• catastrophic.

Model of risk species depending on the solution in the concept of permissible risk

The above presented model of zoning areas in which a management decision is made. The diagram reflects the dynamics of profitability and possible losses of profit, taking into account the magnitude of the risk. Risk always accompanies effective management, however, it comes crucial momentWhen, by which the business person becomes unable to overcome the level of danger, and the damage turns out to be irreparable.

Under the valid risk, we will understand the threat of the loss of the financial result of operating activities or the project implemented, which is potentially less expected. In this case economic expediency A specific event or activity in general is preserved. A more dangerous degree of risk is its critical version in which the level of likely losses is approaching the size of the material costs for the implementation of the transaction, project or production. It can be said that this is the first degree of critical risk. Both indicated categories in the case of use can be justified under certain conditions.

The two next risk categories can hardly be considered permissible. Further increase in the likelihood of threats leads to the fact that the size of possible losses goes to the level of full costs of the enterprise. This state of affairs corresponds to a second degree of criticality. Finally, a catastrophic is the risk, when the threats become comparable to the size of the company's property and even begin to exceed its value.

According to the dynamic criterion, dynamic and statistical groups of risks are allocated. We devote the dynamic group two closest sections of the article. The specifics of the statistical group is their inevitable presence in business activities. The main categories of risks belonging to this group:

• as a result of natural disasters;
• as a result of committing criminal acts;
• due to the deterioration of legislation;
• as a result, the loss of business leaders due to death or other circumstances.

Dynamic risks group

Risk classifications formed for this group are based on speculative nature of certain possibilities, the likelihood of which is present in business activities. Dynamic risks carry the potential of both losses and profits for the company. Among this category are the following risks:

• financial;
• political;
• technical;
• industrial;
• commercial;
• sectoral;
• investment.

Group review We will begin with financial risks. For this category, two interpretations of attributability of threats to financial risks are inherent: Wide and narrow. A wide view involves the risk of losses in any financial transactions. I am closer a narrow position in which the risks arising from financial investments are to financial investments. This article is dedicated to the article on the topic. We will recall the main subspecies:

• currency;
• credit;
• liquidity;
• market.

Institutions of the authorities are their policies at the state level. They form a specific risk category - political. One of the important criteria for the country's investment attractiveness is its political and lawmaking stability. About this at all times business asks power, and always this request is ignored. This avoid impossible a priori. Among the most significant political risks of recent times, the following can be allocated.

1. Threats caused by sanctions on the accession of the Crimea and the implementation of Minsk agreements.
2. The danger of terrorist attacks, hostilities that can entail significant damage and bankruptcy of the business.
3. Threat to termination of transactions due to solutions of countries to which a partner company belongs.
4. The risk of a currency transfestation, which will not be able to translate funds into the currency of the investor or creditor for calculations.

Technical progress leads to the threats of man-made disasters, the aging of the equipment only aggravates this trend. The category of technical risks relates to internal risks and is determined by the level of organization of production, a system of prevention and safety. This species includes the following varieties:

• accidents, breakage, malfunctions in the equipment;
• the occurrence of side and negative effects from the introduction of new technologies;
• the impossibility of mastering innovation due to the low technological level of production;
• unsatisfactory results R & D.

Several articles will be devoted to the categories of industrial and commercial risk. It should be noted that both of these kinds are closely related to each other. Production risk is associated with the processes of ensuring and performing production. Commercial risk occurs in the process of promoting and marketing produced products and goods purchased for resale.

Categories of sectoral and investment risks

Sectoral risks are the detected loss opportunities due to changes arising as in economic condition within the industry and compared to other sectoral areas of the country's economy. Sectoral risk is also also considered in relation to enterprises carrying the features of a certain industry. So, the classification of the occurrence of threats is different for industrial enterprises, banks, distributors companies. Below are two examples of classification charts of risks formed by a factor of trading and intermediary and manufacturing companies.

Classification scheme of the risks of a trade and mediation firm

Classification scheme of the risks of the manufacturing enterprise

The stage of the life cycle of the industry and intra-separable competition determines the main threats for enterprises included in it. At the same time, competition between enterprises with related activities testifies to the sustainability of companies operating in one industry compared with enterprises of other industries. This information is divided into the following directions:

• the structure and cost of the "entrance ticket to the industry";
• the level of price and non-counseling competition;
• availability on the market of goods or services-substitutes;
• customer solvency;
• market opportunities of suppliers;
• social and political environment.

The investment type of risk occupies a special position. On the one hand, it can be referred to the varieties of financial risk, since it is closely related to finance. On the other hand, investments occupy a separate position. I propose to consider investment risk wider than the risk of only financial investment (investment portfolio). Any investment, including capital investments, carry the specific potential of threats and dangers. These may include the following types.

1. Capital.
2. Selective.
3. Percentage.
4. Country.
5. Operating.
6. Temporal.
7. Liquidity risk.
8. Inflationary.
9. Risk of legislative decisions.

One of the important varieties of investment risk is an innovative risk. Since innovations are actively mutized at the level of state policy, and the type of activity itself is associated with the probability of failure and losses, we will pay special attention to this topic in a separate material. The classification of innovative risks is presented in a schematic form below.

Scheme of the classification of innovative risks of the enterprise

In this article we made an overview of possible types of risk of commercial organizations. The project manager is useful to own the classification features of all possible threats, because each type requires a special approach to identification, assessment of factors, risk management. Gradually, the project paradigm will be in the economy dominant. It is inevitably exactly the way at one time began to dominate the functional approach, whose time is already coming to an end. But in order for the project management to be an ordinary routine mass everyday business, a risk-level basis should be fully integrated into it, the basic level of which is determined by the types of risks operated.

Based on structural characteristics, risks can be classified by different features.

Due to (nature) damage determining the nature and mechanism of damage, which is very important for analyzing any risk, the following risks can be distinguished.

A. Natural risks caused by natural disasters and natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, storms, climatic cataclysms, etc.).

B. Technical risks caused by the effects of functioning technical Systems and / or their violations (fires, accidents, errors in design and estimate documentation).

B. Risks associated with the human factor. These are the risks associated with the erroneous or chastic actions of the personnel who entail the emergence of the emergency.

G. Social risks, under which the risks of such negative social phenomena are involved as crime, violation of the safety of objects, adverse social external effects, etc.

Each undesirable event may arise relative to a certain victim - the risk object, the ratio of risk objects and not desirable events makes it possible to distinguish the individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risk. Each type of it determines the characteristic sources and risk factors.

Classification of risks on objects

View of risk	Risk object	Source of risk	Unwanted event
Individual		Conditions of human life	Disease, injury, death
Technical	Technical systems and objects	Technical imperfection, violation of the rules of operation of technical systems	Accident, explosion, fire, destruction
Ecological	Environmental systems	Anthropogenic environmental intervention, man-made emergencies	Anthropogenic ecological catastrophes, natural disasters
Social	Social groups	Emergency situations, decline in living standards	Group injuries, diseases, people's death, mortality growth
Economic	Material resources	Increased risk of production or natural environment	Increase safety costs, insufficient security damage

In terms of people exposed to the action of danger, two types of risk are distinguished: individual (measure of the possibility of the offensive negative consequences For the health of one person) and the collective (probability of injury or death of two or more people). This risk is estimated by the number of deaths as a result of a certain dangerous factor on the combination of people.

In terms of the situation, a voluntary and forced (professional) risk is possible. The first refers to the personal life of a person. Its examples are non-professional climbing classes, parachute jumps, that is, the activities that the person is engaged in the sake of their own pleasure, improve the comfort, increase prestige. Forced risk is related to the need to fulfill professional duties under certain conditions. He is subject to firefighters, rescuers, infectious doctors, etc. Voluntary risk is above professional and limited to the risking itself.

In relation to the decision-making situation in the conditions of uncertainty, the risk is motivated (reasonable) and unmotivated (unreasonable). In the case of industrial accidents, fires, in order to save people affected by accidents and fires, a person has to take risk. The validity of such risks is determined by the need to assist affected people, the desire to save the destruction of expensive equipment or structures of enterprises. Unmotivated is the risk due to the reluctance of people to comply with the security requirements, use personal protective equipment, etc.

With a comprehensive risk analysis, it is very important to take into account how typical of the considered risk for this object and / or the situation is. According to the typicalness of negative consequences, fundamental and sporadic risks can be distinguished. The fundamental is called regular risk, inherently inherent in this object and / or situation, as well as based on natural or social laws. The corresponding events are also random, but the risk exposure is large enough. Such risks can be attributed, in particular, the risks of automotive accidents or gardese of crops. Sporadic is an irregular risk caused by rare events and force majeure circumstances implemented with a very low probability. An example is the destruction of property as a result of a meteorite fall.

For risk management, first of all, fundamental risks should be taken into account, and sporadic - only to the extent that they are important.

At the place of appearance, the internal and external risks are distinguished. Domestic risks are associated with the organization of the work of this enterprise or activities concrete person. In other words, these are such risks to which a person can affect. Examples include equipment breakdown, non-compliance with safety rules, unhealthy lifestyle, etc. The external are the risks that are determined by external circumstances. As examples, it is possible to name the impact of the environmental situation on health, natural disasters, etc. A person should take into account the risks of both species, but if internal he can manage, then external - just take into account.

The classification according to the degree of dependence of the damage from the original event involves the allocation of two types of risk - primary and secondary. Primary risk is a risk directly related to an unfavorable source event; The secondary is due to the consequences of the source event. An example of such an initial event can be an earthquake. The destruction of structures (in particular, dams) will correspond to primary risk, and the consequences of flooding caused by the destruction of this dam are secondary.

A limited time can act. By temporary factor, unlimited risks can be distinguished, which do not have temporary limitations, and urgent risks. The latter, in turn, can be long-term and short-term. A long-term risk is subject to a person living in a seismic area or working in danger (electrician, fireman, etc.). It should be noted that people are more inclined to underestimate high level Risk, if they are subjected to for a long time.

If the risk is developing in time, then it is necessary to take into account this aspect. From the point of view of the dependence of the size of risk on time, static and dynamic risks can be distinguished. The magnitude of static risks does not depend on time. An example is the risks of earthquakes, which may certainly depend on time, but it was not possible to identify this dependence. The value of dynamic risks varies in time. For example, with an increase in equipment wear, the risk of accidents occurs.

When forming the right risk management policies, the question of how long it is necessary to identify and eliminate the negative consequences of risks is very important. For the duration of identification and elimination of negative consequences, risks with short-term and long-term identification of consequences can be distinguished. Most risks relate to the first group: usually the damage is detected immediately or within a few months. Such, for example, the risks of fires. However, in some cases, the detection of damage can occur after a long time period - a duration of up to several decades.

As an example, you can consider the situation using asbestos in construction. Several decades ago, it was widely used in construction, as non-combustible and a good heat insulator. However, it was later that asbestos dust was a carcinogenic substance that causes fibrous sealing of the lung tissue. Another example of risks with long-term detection of negative consequences are accidents on radiation hazardous objects.

An important criterion for classifying risks is the degree of prevalence of this risk. It defines for what number of objects is characterized by this risk. From this point of view, we can allocate mass and unique risks. The first is characteristic of the large number of similar objects, for example, the risks of the automotive catastrophe. Even if the risk is small, faced with him quite often. Unique risks are found only among individual objects, such as nuclear risks. As a rule, it is significant risks. Procedures and methods of managing these risks will be fundamentally different.

Question about informational support It is basic when managing the risk, since its solution provides the risk management process. The degree of predictability, or predictability, is an important characteristic Risk from the point of view of procedures and methods for managing this risk. According to this criterion, risk factors can be divided into two groups: predictable (predicted) risks that can be foreseen, but it is impossible to predict the moment of their manifestation; Unpredictable (unpredictable) risks, which are not yet known.

Unpredictability may be associated both with a complete or partial lack of information, in particular, according to a unique object and the principled inability of a quantitative or qualitative forecast, for example, when evaluating the degree of danger of some biotechnology research.

Under the classification of risks, the distribution of risks to specific groups on certain features from the point of view of achieving the set

lei. The classification allows you to clearly define the place of each risk in their general system, which makes it possible to effectively apply the appropriate methods and risk management techniques.

Risks are:

1. Pure - mean the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result. These risks, taking into account the cause of the occurrence, can be divided into:

1. Natural and natural - associated with the manifestation of natural forces of nature (earthquake, nation, storm, fire, epidemic).

2. Environmental - associated with pollution of the rushing environment (residential areas, harbosity of production, emergency and emergency situations).

3. Political - associated with political situations in the country and state activities. In violation of the conditions of the production and trading process for reasons, directly independent of the economic entity (strike, the growth of transluor tariffs, duties, the change in the price of energy festivals, the change in the taxation system, relatives with the authorities).

4. Social risks associated with the lack of social infrastructure, hidden unemployment, about the economic relations of workers with management personnel.

5. Transport - associated with the transport of GRU call by cargo transport (river, sea, automotive, air, rail).

6. Part of commercial risks (except financial), the causes of which are most often called the unstable demand, underestimation of the possibilities of competitives, the unscrupulousness of the partner or the buyer.

1. Properties - the likelihood of losses of a business of the entrepreneur due to theft, sabotage, negligence, surgery of systems.

2. Production - are associated with a loss from stopping production due to the impact of various factors, as well as the introduction of but howling technique and technology. Reasons may be:

weestness of technology, non-economic work of equipment, its worniness, no capacity reserve, no spare parts, unscheduled downtime, violation of operation and repair modes, insufficient reliability of raw materials and fixed assets.

1.6.3. Trade risks are associated with a loss due to non-payment, refreading due to the period of transportation of goods, non-delivery of goods.

2. Speculative risks that are expressed in the possibility of receiving both positive and negative results. These risks include primarily financial risks.

2.1. Associated with purchasing power of money.

1. Inflation and deflationary risks.

2. Currency risks.

The risks arising in the implementation of foreign exchange operations are conventionally divided into 4 groups:

1. Credit risks.

2. The risk of non-payment - the counterparty cannot or does not want to fulfill its obligation, exacerbates the risks arising from the implementation of races (one can check the reputation of the counterparty, the fault of the limits by type of operations and counterparties, and has been collected by the corresponding coating of limits).

3. Political.

4. Country risks - when obligations cannot be fulfilled due to the characteristics of the country of the counterparty (war, catastrophe, moratorium). It is worth it to significant with the ranking of countries, the opening of branches with the representative of the televisions, the establishment of restrictions and reinsurance.

5. The risk of non-transfers is the restrictions on the transfer of funds for economic reasons established by the state.

2. Financial risk.

1. The risk of changes in exchange rates (loss due to changes in courses). Position forwarding open tia, position swap.

2. Risk of percentage rate changes.

2.1. Forward positions (open and balanced, when the dates of shopping and sales do not coincide).

2. Operations in monetary market, percentage, futures. All these transactions should hedge

3. Position swap.

3. Operational risk.

3.1. The risks associated with the Bank's staff are due:

· Diversity of operations (when using the tool set, not everyone owns equally well);

· Weak personality (possibly avoiding the extension by employees);

· Ambitions or careerism (personnel planning);

· Violation of the rules of behavior in the market;

· Spaces in education (internal training program);

· Insufficient resistance to stress (shift jobs, monitoring employees);

· Insufficient physical endurance;

· Incorrect understanding of the conditions of the prisoner, the making of the KI (use of modern means of communication and record information);

· Language problems (language schools, oversized internships);

· Errors when writing notes on prisoners making Cam (competently composed forms);

· Lack of mutual understanding of employees (creating a favorable atmosphere);

· Prestigious transactions (installation of the operation of operation, informing the manual);

· Disadvantages of working conditions, loyalty problems (personnel planning).

2. Operational risks are associated with the use of phones, personal computers, protection and information about work.

3. Organizational risk:

· Ineffective organization;

· Difficulties in management;

· Incomplete or incorrect payment instructions;

· Inadequate information exchange;

· Distribution of responsibility;

· Use of information not by bank employees.

4. Risks associated with measures to monitor currency operations:

· Playfulness (it is necessary to create verification systems for compliance of transaction conditions);

· Reporting (recording details of unusual transactions and cooperation with control and audit authorities);

· External audit;

· Using an automatic payment indicator;

Records for transactions (blanks, time, standard reductions).

2.1.3. Liquidity risks. 2.2. Investment risks.

1. The risk of missed benefits is the risk of the onset of indirect financial damage (incomplete profit) as a result of the failure of any event.

2. The risk of reducing profitability arises as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans:

· Percentage risks;

· Credit risks.

2.2.3. Risk of direct financial losses;

· Exchange risk - the risk of losses from exchange transactions (the risk of non-payment of transactions, non-payment of the commission of sion remuneration);

· Selective risk - the risk of improper selection of types of investment of capital, types of securities for internal investment compared with other types of securities;

· The risk of bankruptcy is the danger of complete loss before the host of equity and the inability to pay on the obligations due to improper selection of capital investments.

When analyzing the risk, an important point is to identify sources and reasons, so it is necessary to determine which sources are prevailing.

According to the source of the occurrence, it is customary to distinguish the risk:

1) actually economic;

2) associated with the personality of a person;

3) due to natural factors.

Due to the occurrence of risks, which are a consequence:

1) the uncertainty of the future;

2) unpredictable behavior of partners;

3) lack of information.

When determining the risk as the probability of a certain level of losses, it is distinguished:

1. A permissible risk is the threat of full loss when there were from a particular project or an entrepreneur in general.

2. Critical risk is not only a loss of profits, but also the imposition of the alleged revenue when the costs have to refund at their own expense.

3. Catastrophic risk - leading to the bank of the company's rotary, loss of investment or even personal property of the entrepreneur.

For enterprises, it is important to know not only the likelihood of certain losses, but also the likelihood that the losses will not exceed one or another level.

Practices prefer other classification of risks in assessing investment:

1. Business risk is associated with major problems of the company depends on the change in demand in the market, production costs and technological aging.

2. The risk of liquidity - arises when any asset cannot be quickly implemented at its market value.

3. The risk of non-payment is the impossibility of paying about the cents on securities and repayment of the amount of debt.

4. Market risk is a change in the value of shares as a result of fluctuations in courses in the stock market.

about. Interest risk is a change in the value of assets due to changes in interest rate or conditions in the money market and capital market. Requests securities with a fixed interest rate, especially bonds and real estate.

6. Purpose of purchasing power - acquisition

less purchasing power compared to the initial (most subject to bonds). Bank risks:

1. External - non-associated bank activities.

2. Internal - losses on the main and auxiliary activities of the Bank.

Risks on the main activity:

· Credit;

· Percentage;

· Currency;

· Market.

Auxiliary risks:

· Losses on the formation of deposits;

· Risks on new activities;

· Risks of bank abuse.

Banking operations are subject to the past, current (operations for the issuance of guarantees, acceptance of promissory bills, accredit operations) and future risk.

By the nature of accounting, this can be balanced and off-balanced risks.

Also allocate the risk of unbalanced liquidity and leasing transactions.

Depending on the sources of the occurrence and methods of elimination, the risk of non-systematic (specific, diversified) and systematic (undeterfeitable, market) is distinguished. The first is due to the availability of raw materials, successful or unsuccessful marketing programs, receiving or losing major contracts, the influence of foreign competition, the impact of government measures. Since any events are specific for each individual company, their influence can be easily eliminated by capital distribution between various types of investments, companies, industries, regions and countries. In this case, the losses of some will overlap the success of others.

An undetermined risk arises due to external events affecting the market as a whole: inflation, war, economic recession, high interest rate and

dr. Systematic risk accounted for from 25 to 50% common risk On any investment, it is impossible to eliminate diversification.

For securities, several types of special risks are distinguished:

· Capital risk of an integral risk on the port of fellow securities compared to other types of investment.