"Gold Rule of Accumulation"
In the simplest accumulation model, three sectors are distinguished: enterprises, state and population. For each sector, monetary accumulation is expressed as a difference between income and investment costs.
For industrial enterprises, the main sources of capital accumulation are cash in the form of temporarily free capital. For the production process, the accumulation of money is necessary to ensure continuity, expansion of production, restrictions from various oscillations of supply and demand. Enterprises, as a rule, accounts for up to 20% of the total cash accumulation.
The funds of the state are state reserves and act as the difference between the tax revenues and expenses of the central government and local authorities. The main prerequisites for such accumulation are: state budget state, investment expenses that require pre-accumulation of funds.
The state sector also includes the accumulation of money capital, carried out through state retirement structures. Although the source of funds in these funds are mainly income of the population, the state is disposed of capital. The state of the state in the total volume of capital accumulation accounts for about 10%.
3. The savings of the population are the part of the wage that is not used for current needs and is postponed for unforeseen cases or in old age, to purchase long-term items, expensive goods. Economic literature highlights four motifs of such accumulation: income related, commercial motive, precautionary motif, speculative (P. Samuelson and M. Friedman).
The growth of population savings as the main source of accumulation is a characteristic process for all countries. An indicator of this growth is as an absolute value and the rate of savings.
The growth rate of savings can be described using a function called "Golden Accumulation Rule":
SY \u003d PCR + YR + DU + RR + GPP,
where SY. - share of savings savings;
PCR. - the pace of change of consumer prices;
Yr. - the pace of change of real income;
Du - differences in unemployment;
RR - Real interest rate;
GPP. - the pace of changes in state consumption.
The following factors affect the accumulation process:
from rising incomethe consumption of long-term goods is increasing, which requires preliminary cash savings;
changes in the structure of population consumption;
3) Effect tax system and social insurance.
The higher the income taxes, the smaller the disposable income, and, consequently, the savings. The role of the social security system of the bay. On the one hand, it reduces income and savings, and on the other, it makes it possible to increase national economic accumulation;
inflation,the value of which is also ambiguous. On one theory, the money is depreciated, so they move to other assets (real estate, gold), but in fact people, having even small amounts, begin to save more to "black day". The second point of view connects the change in savings with inflationary expectations, which leads to an increase in savings, since its role plays the precautionary motive;
cyclic development of the economyin the process of which the savings reduced during the rise, since the favorable situation weakens the precautionary motive and speculative motive (the interest rates decrease). During the crisis, both of these motifs manifest quite clearly, which leads to the growth of savings.
cashless payout of wages,which leads to some savings (reduction of costs of going to the bank) and the possibility of the Bank to use the balance of accounts in the form of loan capital.
In general, there are three main forms of accumulation: contributions to the credit system, the acquisition of securities, deposits into insurance companies. Nevertheless, various subjects prefer certain forms of accumulation.
The fundamental merit of Felps can be attributed, firstly, contribution to the creation of a neoclassical theory of economic growth, and, secondly, the answer to the question of communicating inflation and unemployment. The Nobel Prize was marked second, but still it is worth saying a few words about the contribution of Phelps to the theory of growth. In the early 60s, he formulated the so-called "golden rule" of capital accumulation. The question was, with what the accumulation pace, the economy goes to the optimal consumption mode in the long-term perspective. According to the golden rule, the return to capital should be equal to the costs of its reproduction. Only then provides an optimal level of household consumption; Excess return on costs indicates a lack of investment and vice versa. This, at first glance, the simple principle of equality of costs and results is universal in the economy. The merit of Felps is that he formulated and substantiated it in a dynamic context. All modern economic growth models use the same principle as a key optimality condition.
The golden rule turned out to be important for economic policies. First, in the post-war time in many countries the question of the optimal rate of capital accumulation was relevant. What proportion of GDP should invest in ensuring the optimal level of consumption on a long time horizon? Phelps gave a clear answer, which allowed to judge the effectiveness of this or that growth regime. From the Golden Rules, for example, it flowed down that the Soviet Union, who had a good dynamic that had to start the 60s, actually provided it at the expense of an excess accumulation rate. Additional costs significantly blocked the return on capital, which indicated the ineffectiveness of growth in the Golden Epoch of Socialism. Secondly, the application of the Felps rule at the household level makes it possible to determine the optimal principles of taxation. For example, consumption tax turns out to be neutral with respect to this rule, that is, does not affect the norm of savings. In this regard, such a tax (and its practical incarnation is the retail sales tax) is much more preferable to income taxes, especially from capital.
CONCLUSIONS:
1. Macroeconomics studies cumulative, or aggregated, values: total demand, cumulative offer, employment, general price level, inflation, balance of payments, etc.
2. Macroeconomics methods are both positive and regulatory analysis, as well as:
· Aggregation;
· Principle "Updated equal terms";
· Equal approach;
· Difference between reserves and threads.
3. Major market entities led by macroeconomics:
· Households;
· State;
· Scrabble (in an open economy).
4. A circuit of income and expenses in the economy shows the relationship between all the market entities in the process of their expenditures and revenue.
5. Injections in the circuit of income and expenses are investments, government spending and exports. Leaks are savings, taxes and imports.
6. The main competing schools in Macroeconomics are represented by Keynesianism and the neoclassical direction.
7. GDP is the main macroeconomic indicator measuring business activity for a certain period of time. The calculation of GDP is carried out by three methods: production, summation of expenses and summation of income. As a result, all three methods give the same end result of the GDP calculation.
8. The main identity of national accounts is: y = FROM + I + G + NX.
9. GDP, expressed in current prices, is called nominal, and in the prices of the Base Year - real. The GDP deflator is a private from dividing nominal GDP to the real and shows the change in price level for a certain period.
10. Price index with an unchanged set of goods and services (consumer basket) is called the Laspeyres index; The price index with a changing set of goods and services is the index of PAsas, or the GDP deflator.
11. Potential GDP is a GDP designed for the level of full employment of all resources of society.
12. The system of national accounts (SNA) reflects the relationship of the most important macroeconomic indicators: GDP, pure internal product (ChVP), national income (ND), personal income (LD), disposable income (RD).
13. Economic growth is expressed in the growth of real GDP. The economic growth meter is the annual growth rate of real GDP.
14. WPPN is an ideal meter of economic activity of the population and its economic well-being, since the VPNN reflects the unobserved economy - shadow production, illegal production, the production of the informal sector, the production of households for its own final use, as well as activities affecting economic well-being, but not having a market assessment. This disadvantage is invited to eliminate the introduction of pure economic welfare indicators (CEB) and true savings.
15. Extensive economic growth is carried out due to the quantitative growth of its factors - labor, capital, land resources, intensive - due to the growth of labor productivity. The most important components of labor productivity growth - technological progress, education (human capital), the cost of physical capital, savings on the production scale, improve resource accommodation.
16. Economic growth models are divided into two main groups.
One of them is a neoclassical direction and is reflected, in particular, in the models of Kobba Douglas, R. Solow. The second group includes models based on Keynesian theory. The most famous model of Haroda-Domar model. The main difference between the neoclassical and Keynesian models of economic growth is that the first takes into account several factors of economic growth, and the second are one factor.
17. According to the Golden Rule, the return on capital should be equal to the costs of its reproduction. Only then provides an optimal level of household consumption: excess of returns on costs indicates a lack of investment and vice versa.
Basic concepts:
macroeconomics MacroeConomics.
circular income and expenses Circular Flow OF Incomes APD Expenditures
injects injections
leakage leakages
stocks stocks
flow streams
neoclassics neoclassics
new Classics New Classics
monetarists MoneyTarists
keynesians Keynesians.
neokeysians NeokeynesiaAps.
new Keynesians New Keynesians
gross domestic product gROSS DOTESCI PRODUCT (GDP);
- Nominal - pipal;
Real - rél;
gross National Product gROSS PATIOPAL PRODUCT (GNP);
gross National Income gross Patipal IPCE (GNI);
added value value Added;
gDP deflator GDP-DEF1ATOR;
index Laspeyres Laspeyres IPDEX;
index Paashe PAACSHE IPDEX;
system of national accounts pATIOPAL ASSOPT SYSTET;
personal consumer spending persopal CopsUTOP EXPEPDITURES;
disposable income disposabie IPCE;
gross internal investment gross Dotestic ItemSthept;
depreciation depreciatoP;
pure export pet Ex -RT;
unobservable economy pOP-OBSERVIPG E ESOPOT;
pure Economic Welfare (CEB) pET ECOPOTIC WELFARE;
the economic growth economic Growth;
extensive economic growth eXTENSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH;
intense economic growth iNTENSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH;
human capital human Capital;
true savings genuine Savings.
1.Agapova T.A., Sergina S. F. Macroeconomics. Tests. Topic 1, 10
Galperin V.M., Grebennikov P.I., Leusky A.I., Tarasevich L.S. Macroeconomics. GL 1,2,14
2.Dolan E. Macroeconomics. GL 2, 3.
3.Dornbush R., Fisher S. Macroeconomics. GL 1, § 1, ch. nineteen
4.Linwood T. Giger. Macroeconomic theory and transition economy. GL.4, § 1.
5. Makconnell K., Bruz S. Economics. GL nine.
6.Mancy N.G. Macroeconomics. GL 1, 2,3,4
7.Lelwood T. Giger. Macroeconomic theory and transition economy. GL.4, § 1.
8. National Accounts System - Macroeconomic Analysis Tool: Tutorial / Ed. Yu.N. Ivanova - M.
9.Fisher S., Dornbush R., Shmalenzi R. Economy. GL 24, 35.
10. Saine P. Economic image of thinking. GL sixteen.
The optimal capital of capital accumulation should ensure economic growth with the maximum level of consumption. The level of capital accumulation, providing a sustainable state with the highest level of consumption is called gold level of accumulation (denotesk **).
From the equation for a sustainable state (13) it follows that when a change in the norm of savings, a steady level of capital, A, and, accordingly, changes and sustainable consumption per capita changes.
Change consumption when changing the savings rate depends on the initial state of the economy. Sustainable per capita consumption is growing with increasing s. With low savings standards and falls at high. Consumption per capita in the sustainable level of capital is found as the difference between income and savings :
c * \u003d F (k * (S)) - Sf (k * (s)). Considering that sf (k *) \u003d (n + d) k *,you can withdraw:
(14) C * \u003d F (k * (s)) - (n + d) k * (s).
Maximizing (14) by S, find: since, the expression in brackets should be zero. Capital reducing, in which the expression in brackets is zero called in the capital, corresponding to the golden rule and denote by:
Condition (15), determining the stationary level K, maximizing stationary consumption C, is called Gold rule accumulation of capital.Thus, the rate of savings that ensures the maximum amount of sustainable consumption per capita can be found from the condition:
where is the solution of equation (15). So, if you maintain the same level of consumption for all living and for all future generations, that is, if you do with future generations, as you would like to come with us, it is the maximum level of inpatient consumption per capita, which can be provided.
The golden rule can be represented graphically. Saving rate s G.figure 2 corresponds to the golden rule, since steady capital k G.such that the slope f (k) At the point is equal (n + d).As can be seen from the drawing while increasing the savings rate before or decreased to sustainable per capita consumption falls compared to : and.
Fig. 85. The Gold Rule of Capital Accumulation.
If the rate of savings in the economy exceeds and, accordingly, sustainable capitalization is higher than when golden rule, the distribution of resources in such an economy is dynamically ineffective. Having reducing the norm of savings to, it would be possible to achieve an increase in consumption per capita in the long term,Schematically, changing consumption per capita is shown in Figure 85.
At the time of reducing the norm of saving consumption per capita grows sharply, and then monotonously falls to magnitude. Taking into account the fact that, we obtain that even during the transition to a new stationary state, the economy at each moment of time has a higher consumption per capita than the initial level.
Thus, the economy with a savings rate exceeding, saves too much and, due to this, the distribution of resources is dynamically ineffective.
Fig. 85. Dynamics of per capita consumption with a decrease in the rate of savings from levels to.
If the rate of savings in the economy is less, then, increasing the norm of savings before, it would be possible to achieve a higher sustainable capital operation, But in the transition period, consumption would be lower than at the moment. Thus, in this case, it is impossible to unequivocally assert that such distribution of resources is ineffective, since it all depends on how society appreciates future consumption of the current, that is, from interstreme preferences.
Sustainable equity depends on the following parameters: saving standards, depreciation rates and population growth rates.
1. Changing the savings rate.
If the state succeeds in any way to increase the norm of savings, then the function schedule sF (K) / Kit will move up and sustained capital will increase, as shown in Figure 85.
Fig. 86. Changes in equity as a result of increasing the norm of savings from
As follows from Figure 86, the increase in the savings rate should be leaping at the growth rate of capital, then with increasing capital, the distance between the curves increases sF (K) / Kand (n + d)it is reduced and rushing to zero. Thus, immediately following the increase in the rate of savings, the growth rate of capital becomes higher than the growth rate of the population, and as it approaches a new stable state, the growth rate k and l again approach.
From here, it can be concluded that the change in the norm of savings does not affect the long-term growth rate of the release, but affects the growth rate in the process of movement to a stable state. So an increase in the cost of savings leads to a sharp increase in the growth rate of labor productivity, however, as this effect approaches the stable state, this effect comes down.
Fig.88. Dynamics of growth rate of release with increasing population growth rate with N 1 to N 2
The growth rate of productivity will first become negative, and then grow until it returns to the zero mark. At the same time, the growth rate of the release itself in a new steady state will be higher than in the initial, as shown in Figure 88.
In a closed economy, where the growth of savings really means an increase in investment, stimulating savings (for example, by reducing taxes on securities income) could contribute to economic growth. On the other hand, the state could stimulate investments directly, for example, through investment tax loans.
Another component of economic growth is scientific and technological progress and the accumulation of human capital, that is, knowledge and experience. Thus, the state should pursue a policy aimed at stimulating education, research and development by subsidizing these areas directly or through the promotion of firms actively investing in human capital through all sorts of tax breaks.
The "golden rule" of accumulation was formulated by the American economist E. Phelps in 1961 according to the rule, per capita consumption in the face of the growing economy reaches a maximum at the time when the capital product is becoming equal to the rate of economic growth.
With the optimal rate of capital accumulation (& **), corresponding to the "Golden Regulation", a condition must be carried out: the maximum product of the capital is equal to depreciation (disposal of capital), i.e.:
and if you consider the growth rate of the population and technical progress, then:
Now suppose that the economy is in a state of equilibrium, but does not correspond to the "Golden Regulation" and the Government will have to determine the growth policy, develop a program to achieve maximum shower consumption.
In this case, two versions of the economy are possible.
1. The economy has a capital reserve greater than necessary to match the "Golden Regulation".
2. Capital reserve does not reach the corresponding "Golden Regulation".
Determine the stock of capital corresponding to the "Golden Rule" - this means to solve the problem of choosing the optimal rate of accumulation.
Consider the first version of the development of the economy. Reducing the rate of accumulation leads to an increase in the level of consumption and reduction of investment. At the same time, the economy comes out of equilibrium state.
A new equilibrium state will correspond to the "golden rule" with a higher level of consumption, since the initial stock of the capital is excessively high, when reducing income and the level of investment.
The second version of the development of the economy requires a responsible choice of politicians, since the decision made by them affects the vital interests of different generations. The increase in the rate of accumulation leads to a decrease in consumption and growth of investments. As capital accumulates, production, consumption and investments are beginning to grow to achieve a new sustainable state with a higher level of consumption. But the high level of consumption will be preceded by a transitional period with a decrease in consumption. This period can cover the life of a whole generation, providing fruits of economic growth to subsequent generations.
The Nobel Prize winners in 2004 were America Edward Prescott and Living in the United States Norwegian Finn Kidland. Reward scientist
awarded for "their contribution to dynamic macroeconomics: a temporary component of economic policies and driving forces within business cycles." The pressRellis published on the website of the Nobel Prize says: "... Driving forces and fluctuations within business cycles and building economic policies are key areas of macroeconomic research. Finn Kidland and Edward Prescott made a fundamental contribution to these important areas not only by macroeconomic analysis, but also in terms of practice in monetary and tax policies in many countries. "
A study conducted by scientists made it possible to unite the analysis of long-term economic growth and short-term economic oscillations. Scientists use a model of economic growth R. Solow. The contribution of the most important factor of long-term economic growth - technical progress - is determined by the so-called "Salue residue". Technical progress can cause short-term cyclic oscillations, as the aggregate productivity of production factors increases under the influence of technological shock. The laureates created a whole scientific direction of "real economic cycles", according to which the source of cyclic oscillations are shocks from the proposal. This theory uses the following provisions: a) price flexibility in the short term; b) Changes in real indicators depend on real shifts in the economy: technological shifts and changes in fiscal policy.
As a result of labor productivity growth, wages increase, which causes an increase in labor supply in a given period of time and capitalotes. Kidland and Prescott consistently develop the idea of \u200b\u200bneoclassics about the ability of a market economy to self-regulation without state intervention. In their opinion, the fall in the release is only the result of temporary deviations of economic growth.
In the simplest accumulation model, three sectors are distinguished: enterprises, state and population. For each sector, monetary accumulation is expressed as a difference between income and investment costs.
- For industrial enterprises, the main sources of capital accumulation are cash in the form of temporarily free capital. For the production process, the accumulation of money is necessary to ensure continuity, expansion of production, restrictions from various oscillations of supply and demand. Enterprises, as a rule, accounts for up to 20% of the total cash accumulation.
- The funds of the state are state reserves and act as the difference between the tax revenues and expenses of the central government and local authorities. The main prerequisites for such accumulation are redeemed: state budget state, investment costs that require preliminary accumulation of car funds. The state sector also includes cash capital accumulation, carried out through state retirement insurance funds. Although the source of funds in these funds are mainly income of the population, the state is disposed of capital. The state of the state in the total volume of capital accumulation accounts for about 10%.
- The savings of the population are the part of the wages that are not used for current needs and is postponed for unforeseen cases or in old age, to purchase long-term items, expensive goods. Economic literature highlights four motifs of such accumulation: income related, commercial motive, precautionary motif, speculative (P. Samuelson and M. Friedmen).
The growth of population savings as the main source of accumulation is a characteristic process for all countries. An indicator of this growth is as an absolute value and the rate of savings.
The growth rate of savings can be described using a function called "Golden Accumulation Rule":
S \\ Y \u003d PCR + Yr + DU + RR + GPP,
where S \\ y is the share of savings savings;
PCR - Consumer price changes paces;
Yr - the pace of change of real income;
Du - differences in unemployment;
RR is a real interest rate;
GPP - the pace of changes in state consumption.
The following factors affect the accumulation process:
- with income growth increases the consumption of long-term goods, which requires preliminary cash savings;
- changes in the structure of population consumption;
- the impact of the tax system and social insurance. The higher the income taxes, the smaller the disposable income, and, consequently, the savings. The role of the social security system of the bay. On the one hand, it reduces income and savings, and on the other, it makes it possible to increase national economic accumulation;
- inflation, the value of which is also ambiguous. On one theory, the money is depreciated, so they move to other assets (real estate, gold), but in fact people, having even small amounts, begin to save more to "black day". The second point of view connects the change in savings with inflationary expectations, which leads to an increase in savings, since its role plays the precautionary motive;
- the cyclic development of the economy, in the process of which, during the rise, reduced savings, as a favorable situation weakens the precautionary motive and a speculative motive (interest rates decrease). During the crisis, both of these motifs manifest quite clearly, which leads to the growth of savings.
- cashless payment of wages, which leads to some economy (reduction of costs of going to the bank) and the possibility of the Bank to use the balance of accounts in the form of loan capital.
In general, there are three main forms of accumulation: contributions to the credit system, the acquisition of securities, deposits into insurance companies. Nevertheless, various subjects prefer certain forms of accumulation.