Ariana Grande concert attack in Manchester kills at least 22 people There are children among the dead.
The Islamic State terrorist group claimed responsibility for the explosion, and accounts linked to it say it is "just the beginning."
The goal of the Islamic State is to build a world caliphate. Even if they manage to clear Iraq and Syria of militants (according to optimistic forecasts, their forces will be finally defeated before the end of 2017), only their terrorist quasi-state will cease to exist, but not the idea that inspires suicide bombers to commit terrorist attacks around the world.
The Secret tells the story of the evolution of the most powerful terrorist organization in world history.
How the Islamic State works
In 2014, the creation of the Islamic State was announced by the Iraqi theologian and Islamic scholar Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, also known as Abu Dua or Caliph Ibrahim. Little is known about the identity of this man so far: it was said that even to his militants he gives orders from behind a mask.
It is believed that al-Baghdadi is about 45 years old, he is a native of the Iraqi city of Samarra and, presumably, was a clergyman in a mosque when American troops entered Iraq (however, some researchers claim that this is "propaganda"). Then he was detained in the American camp Bucca as an accomplice of terrorists. After his release, he became actively involved in al-Qaeda activities in Iraq.
Earlier this year, there were reports of an ISIS ideologue being severely wounded. Now he is either in Mosul, or in the deserts near the Jordanian borders.
The state with a population of 1-2 million people, which al-Baghdadi began to build in the occupied territories of Iraq and Syria, is divided into wilayats (provinces) and kawati (cities and towns) and lives according to Sharia law.
When ISIS takes over a new city, write Islamic State authors Michael Weiss and Hassan Hasan, the first site to become operational is Hadad Square. On it, they carry out punishments: they crucify, behead, flog and cut off their hands. But IS also has the usual municipal services, the media work (for example, the Amaq agency, which reported IS involvement in the Manchester attack, or the famous Dabiq magazine), “citizens” pay taxes.
In 2014, CNN estimated ISIS's annual budget at $2 billion. But its main source of replenishment - the sale of oil - is scarce. In 2015 terrorists could earn $500 million, in 2016 - $260 million.
What is IS doing?
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi created ISIS to establish "God's kingdom on earth". First, the militants want to create a powerful association of Islamists that will be able to oppose secular states, and then establish a world caliphate that will live according to Sharia law.
First of all, the militants promised to crack down on all “opponents of Islam” and “accomplices of the United States”, in 2015 they threatened to destroy Israel and seize the Gaza Strip: “We will uproot Israel. You (Hamas. - Approx. "Secret"), Fatah and all these supporters of a secular state are nothing, therefore our impending ranks will displace you, ”the militants said in one of the video messages. Although Hamas and Fatah are also Islamist groups, ISIS threatened them with reprisals for their lack of adherence to Sharia: "For eight years they have ruled the Gaza Strip - and they have not been able to implement a single fatwa of Allah."
Since then, the militants have not been able to start a war with Israel. In 2016, the ISIS-published Al-Naba newspaper explained that they would first have to establish power in Iraq and Syria, then end the "godless governments" within the Muslim world.
“The Islamic State is not just a bunch of psychopaths,” American journalist Graham Wood warned in The Atlantic in 2015. "They are a religious group with their own carefully crafted doctrine, not least of which is the belief that IS fighters are bringing the end of the world closer."
According to Islamic eschatology, after the end of the world, Allah will call all believers to him, but before that, the last battle between Muslims and the “Romans” (as Islamic theologians call Christians) must take place in the Syrian city of Dabiq.
What territory does IS control?
The main conquests of IS came in 2014. In January, the militants defeated the Iraqi army in the city of Fallujah, and in June captured one of the largest cities in Iraq, Mosul. The terrorists then launched an offensive against Baghdad, seizing infrastructure along the way, destroying architectural monuments, and executing local residents, journalists, and other infidels. An economy appeared in the state - incomes were formed due to the trade in oil and antiquities. By September, IS had taken over a large area in Iraq and Syria, Vox compared it to the size of Belgium. In addition to Mosul, the militants held Al-Kaim, Syrian Raqqa and reached Aleppo, that is, to the border of Syria and Turkey. According to the BBC, at the peak of its power, ISIS controlled 40% of the territory of Iraq, and about 10 million civilians were in occupation.
In 2015, the United States began massive bombing of ISIS positions, Russian air forces joined in, and local resistance groups became more active. During the first half of 2015, the self-proclaimed state lost 9.4% of the previously conquered territories in Iraq. True, losing influence in one area, the ISIS often compensates for this by capturing new cities. So, in May 2015, the ancient city of Palmyra was taken, in August, militants, paying special attention to propaganda and working with mass communication channels, published a video of the explosion of the ancient temple of Palmyra. This video caused consternation in the Western world. Palmyra was soon liberated by the American and Russian military, a symphony orchestra conducted by Valery Gergiev played on the ruins of the temple, but in 2016 the militants again recaptured this land.
In January 2016, IS controlled over 70,000 sq. km in Iraq and Syria, by the end of the year, the militants had lost 14% of their gains and were left with 60,400 sq. km. According to the IHS Conflict Monitor, about 6 million civilians remained in the occupation by October 2016. In April 2017, the Iraqi government announced that the terrorist organization now controls no more than 7% of the country's territory - less than 30,000 square meters. km. In Syria, ISIS troops are also suffering defeats.
Who opposes IS and who helps
The conflict in Syria and Iraq is a war of all against all, and the Islamic State is fighting on several fronts at once. His main opponents are an international coalition of 68 states led by the United States, the Iraqi government army, the Syrian army of President Bashar al-Assad and Russia (which has been on his side in the civil war that has been going on in this country since 2011).
In April 2013, IS entered the Syrian Civil War, not on the side of Assad's opponents, but as an independent force. At the end of the same year, terrorists took part in the Sunni uprising against the Shiite government in Baghdad and began to control the Iraqi province of Anbar. ISIS quickly seized the territories of these countries, and Iraq even called what was happening the Third World War, referring to the upcoming construction of a world caliphate. Concerned about such activity, the United States sent the first instructors to Iraq in the summer of 2014 to help the military. In September, the Americans assembled an international anti-terrorist coalition to fight ISIS, which has become the largest association of its kind in history - today it includes 68 countries.
The US State Department estimates that by March 2017, the coalition had spent more than $22 billion on military operations - and will spend another $2 billion in 2017. The most active participants are Germany, Canada, Great Britain, France, Australia, Turkey. They sent 9,000 troops to Syria and Iraq, donated 8,200 tons of military equipment, and carried out more than 19,000 airstrikes.
The United States plays a key role in the coalition: 4,850 American soldiers are fighting ISIS in Iraq, and 2,500 in Kuwait.
Iraq sent 300,000 military and the same number of police officers to fight ISIS, Iraqi Kurdistan (a Kurdish state entity within Iraq) - 200,000, Iran - 40,000. About 250,000 military personnel are fighting ISIS in the Syrian army.
In the fall of 2015, Russia entered the war with the Islamic State. Then the representative of Moscow to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said that we would not join the allied countries because the coalition was bombing Syria without the consent of the local government and without the permission of the UN Security Council. How many Russians are fighting in Syria has not been officially stated, but it is believed that there are at least several thousand of them there.
Officially, no one in the world recognizes IS as a state, much less supports the terrorist group. But many are suspected of financial assistance to terrorists: Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and even Israel. The New York Times even published the names of individual patrons. For example, journalists suspect Kuwaiti businessman Ghanim al-Mteiri of complicity with ISIS.
In October 2016, documents from Hillary Clinton's hacked mailbox confirmed that even some US allies may have helped ISIS: "We need to put pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which illegally support ISIS and other radical Sunnis in the region," the report said. correspondence.
Most of the Syrian oil and gas fields are in the hands of ISIS, and Turkey and Jordan are considered the main buyers of illegal oil. The United States and Europe have accused Assad's Russian ally of the same.
Chronicle of IS attacks
Since June 2014, IS supporters have carried out about 150 terrorist attacks in three dozen countries, which have claimed the lives of at least 2,000 people. This is not counting the killings of civilians in Iraq and Syria, the public executions of military personnel, journalists, and humanitarian workers.
Outside of Iraq and Syria, the first ISIS-related attacks occurred as early as 2014. Mass attacks began in 2015. On January 7, two terrorists broke into the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris and shot dead 12 editorial staff. The attack may have been linked to the publication of a cartoon of an Islamic State leader. In November, Paris again became the target of militants. This time the terrorists organized six attacks in different parts of the city. 132 dead. This has never happened before in Western Europe.
In 2016, there were several large-scale terrorist attacks at once. In March, two suicide bombers blew themselves up at Brussels airport. 14 people died. Another explosion thundered in the subway, an hour and a half later. 21 killed. In June, 45 people were victims of an attack on Istanbul Airport. First, the militants fired at people, and then set off an explosive device. In July, a truck driven by a terrorist drove into a crowd of people on the waterfront in Nice. 86 deaths.
On October 13, 2015, ISIS declared jihad on Russia, and on October 31 of the same year, a bomb exploded on board a Kogalymavia aircraft that took off from Egyptian Sharm el-Sheikh. 217 passengers and seven crew members died.
The offensive of the Syrian army is proceeding according to plan, despite the peace talks, the threat of a Turkish military invasion and the intervention of the US-Saudi coalition. Having completed the task of cutting off the “green” corridor in the north of Aleppo, along which the militants, weapons and ammunition from Turkey were transiting, Assad’s forces are resting, understaffing and preparing a new operation.
The Russian-Syrian coalition has already accustomed to unexpected rapier strikes: experienced brigades are concentrated on a small section of the collision line, the military space forces (VKS) of the Russian Federation work out the positions of terrorists, then in a short period of time the enemy’s defense is torn open, which leads to the collapse of significant sections of the front.
In this way, several operations were carried out successively: in the area of the Kuweiris airbase, in northern Latakia, in the southern province of Daraa, and finally in the north of Aleppo. Where the army will hit next is a big mystery, especially since the course of the peace negotiations initiated by Russia can make serious adjustments to the plans of the military.
Kurdish factor
The local operation in the north of Aleppo is almost completed. In one week, Assad's army, backed by a motley militias, cut off the militant enclave from the Turkish border, striking in the direction of the Shiite enclave of Nubol and Zahra, which had been surrounded for more than four years. The broken corridor was expanded and fortified, and the further offensive to the north was entrusted to the "Afrin" Kurds, named after the capital of the northwestern Kurdish enclave. The swiftness of the operation speaks of good preparation and coordination by Russian military advisers.
The offensive of the Syrian army in the north of Aleppo on February 01-08. Light brown - Assad's army and allies, green - rebel and terrorist groups, yellow - Kurds, dark brown - Islamic State
The active involvement of the "Afrin" Kurds is a political decision. In fact, it is they who are liquidating the enclave of pro-Turkish militants, pushing the terrorists to the Turkish border. The main target is the large city of Azaz, one of the transshipment bases for pumping Syria with terrorism. However, this appendix has already been cut off by the army from the south, and by the Islamic State (IS, an organization banned in Russia) from the east, so its value in terms of logistics is zero.
The Kurds, in turn, form a buffer between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) of Bashar al-Assad and the Turks, which, on the one hand, unnerves Ankara, and on the other, ties the hands of Erdogan's hawks. It is one thing to attack the soldiers of Damascus, another thing - the formal allies of the United States.
The alignment of the opposing forces in northern Syria on February 16, 2016. Light brown - Assad's army and allies, green - rebel and terrorist groups, yellow - Kurds, dark brown - Islamic State
The decision of the Russian-Syrian coalition to let the Kurdish troops go ahead reduces the risks of direct Turkish intervention, but leaves room for a dirty hybrid war. This is what we are seeing: the shelling of Syrian territory, the invasion of small detachments of Turkish special forces, and finally, the aggravation of the situation with refugees on the border. For several days now, the Kurdish YPG have been under artillery fire. Strikes on the area of the city of Azaz are carried out by 155-mm Firtina self-propelled artillery mounts deployed in the Turkish province of Kilis.
The escalation of the conflict is to be expected after the Kurds occupy Azaz and come closer to Turkish territory, where numerous "humanitarian" camps are located. It must also be understood that the Kurdish troops will not withstand any dense enemy strike - this is mainly light infantry, the pace of attack of which is provided by the artillery and special forces of the Syrian army and the strikes of the Russian air forces. But such a confrontation will cost Erdogan serious international pressure - since today the Western media are unexpectedly critical of Ankara's aggression, and Washington is calling for an end to strikes on Syrian territory.
How to take Aleppo
By cutting off Turkish supplies to the militants in Aleppo (just 45 kilometers from the border), the Syrian army will be able to focus on the city itself, which since 2012 has been divided roughly equally between the government and the conglomerate of groups. Banned in Russia, An-Nusra, Islamic Front, Ansar ad-Din, Caucasus Emirate in Sham, as well as minor detachments of the Free Syrian Army, settled in the eastern quarters of the city. So the fears of a number of experts that Russia's peace initiative, which implies a ceasefire with coordinated opposition groups, will stop Damascus's activity in this direction, are groundless. There are enough terrorists in Aleppo who cannot be smeared with "moderation" with all Western resourcefulness. But Assad's forces will not undertake a frontal attack on the city either.
Aleppo is the largest city in the Middle East. Back in the days of the Ottoman Empire, it was second only to Istanbul and Cairo in terms of population. As of 2011, about three million people lived here, today a little less than a third remains, that is, hundreds of thousands of peaceful Syrians eking out a miserable existence. In general, today the city is already in the grip of a humanitarian crisis, and any blockade or intensification of hostilities will lead to a social catastrophe. This is what Western humanists are loudly shouting about, without offering, however, another, non-coercive solution to the problem.
At the same time, Aleppo is an extremely dense urban development, complicated by tunnels, superstructures, transitions, centuries-old layers of urbanization. Among other things, there are many industrial facilities in the city: the lion's share of Syrian industry was concentrated here and half of the country's workers were employed. It is obvious that Assad does not intend to turn the huge metropolis into the second "Stalingrad", as well as send soldiers to storm the fortified quarters.
Rather, we should expect a multi-component operation to liberate the city, which will include a territorial blockade, blackmail with supplies and logistics, and certainly negotiations with both militants and local residents. Recently, a dialogue between the army and the population of the occupied territories has been very successful in Syria. There are already precedents when residents ask the "moderate" opposition to leave the settlement, so as not to subject it to destruction. Perhaps in some quarters of Aleppo it will be possible to apply the same approach.
Water and electricity
According to some reports, the Syrian army is already ready to launch an offensive in the northwest of Aleppo to clear the important area of Layramun and slam the lid on the boiler for jihadists in the city and surrounding villages. In addition, active actions in other parts of the country can support the blockade of the metropolis. For example, in the east of Aleppo, where over the past six months, Assad's forces have created a powerful enclave based on the Kuweiris airbase.
The alignment of the opposing forces in the north and east of Aleppo, September 2015-February 2016. Red - Assad's army and allies, green - rebel and terrorist groups, orange - Kurds, black - Islamic State
In the east of Aleppo, for the second month now, a large “pocket” has been closing, in which several thousand IS militants are still holding. But the main thing is that there is a thermal power plant here, which supplies electricity to most of the north of the country and the whole of Aleppo. Until now, it has been ruled by a council of local residents, formally located on the territory of the “blacks”. Everyone is interested in its proper operation: the population, terrorists, "moderate" militants, and the army. Therefore, Assad's forces did not dare to attack the object, among other things, fearing that it was mined. However, on Tuesday, Damascus decided to advance, perhaps after making sure that the equipment of the thermal power plant is inoperable: some photos of the Islamists show destroyed boiler houses and turbines, looted equipment. The oil storage facility has been on fire for a long time. Naturally, it is impossible to predict the timing of the restoration of the operation of the TPP, at least in a limited mode, but control over this important facility will make it possible to put pressure on the stubborn quarters of the city.
A sudden offensive by Assad's army in the center of the country may have similar goals. For the first time in a year and a half, government forces have entered the territory of the province of Raqqa and are advancing towards the Tabqa military airfield. Several villages have been liberated and the Salamiya-Rakka highway has been blocked. The operation is carried out by the 555th Brigade of the 4th SAA Mechanized Division in cooperation with the National Defense Forces, the Desert Hawks Brigade, the Golan Regiment and the Palestinian Al-Quds Volunteer Brigade. However, this motley group has no more than 1,000 soldiers, so it is impossible to call the operation a major one at the moment, and it is all the more difficult to predict the seriousness of the ambitions to attack the ISIS capital city of Raqqa itself. Moreover, Assad's forces have to stretch communications, which jihadist flying squads have so far masterfully used in the desert area, tearing supply lines with quick attacks.
Most likely, we are talking about a tactical maneuver that is designed to catch the Caliphate by surprise (it succeeded) and pull back significant deterrence forces from the north (where ISIS does not expand the territory under its control, despite the furious disassembly of the Kurds, pro-Turkish militants and the SAA). But in the long term, the army units and the militias are able to advance and liberate the Tabka air base, which the militants captured in August 2014. At the moment, government forces are located 25 km from it.
If government forces succeed in establishing a bridgehead in Tabka (as they did in Kuweiris in the fall), further tasks may become much more ambitious. Firstly, this is an attack on the stronghold of the Caliphate, the city of Raqqa, which in the current situation can try on the role of "Berlin in the 45th." Plans to capture the capital of ISIS are hatched by Washington, such a goal slips through the statements of Turkish and Saudi leaders. By taking Raqqa under its control, Damascus will not only get ahead of its competitors, but will inflict a political defeat on them, depriving them of a major goal for intervention in Syria and confirming the reputation of a fighter against "real" terrorists. The goal of Damascus could be an earthen dam and the Tabqa hydroelectric power station on the Euphrates, which is located upstream from Raqqa, as well as the huge El-Assad reservoir, which, together with the hydroelectric power station, was created in 1973 with the help of specialists from the USSR. A huge amount of water is needed to irrigate the main local crop - cotton, well, more importantly, El Assad supplies drinking water to Aleppo. For Damascus, this is an important strategic resource in the region. Here are the most important of the few Syrian oil fields.
Theoretically, from the Tabka region, an operation to deblock Deir ez-Zor could be launched. The presence in this area will allow government troops to cut off ISIS forces in North and East Aleppo from Raqqa and further to Iraq, and the airfield will also come in handy for air operations. All these circumstances will at least make life easier for Assad's forces around Aleppo and allow them to focus on the rebellious quarters.
It should also be noted that today it is difficult to predict the course of the Grand Peace Talks. But if we assume a hypothetical situation, when a truce is established in the north and west of the country, Assad’s freed troops will be able to use the bridgeheads in the east to attack the Islamic State: from Kuweiris towards al-Bab, from Tabka towards Raqqa, from Hama towards Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor. At the same time, it should be noted that the Caliphate is unlikely to organize stubborn resistance, especially in desert areas, where you can only cling to crossroads, strategic communications and small towns. Raqqa, by and large, is the only liquid asset of the Islamists, losing which the IS soldiers will be forced to retreat to Iraq, to the base bridgeheads, to the area of responsibility of the Americans. Which in the future is the grand task of the Russian-Syrian coalition.
Not surprisingly, such a turn is not beneficial to the American and Saudi-Turkish groups. Neither for image reasons, nor for tactical reasons - after all, it is the forces of the West that should overthrow the terrorist state, and not the dictator Assad. Damascus taking control of the territory of his country will complicate the plans of any states to invade, simply pulling a convenient pretext out of their hands. This is an important argument for disrupting peace negotiations under any sauce, especially since Assad has already spoken quite harshly about the rules of dialogue with the opposition, which do not imply significant concessions.
Latakia cleared
It is impossible to complete the review of recent successes of the Syrian army and militia without mentioning the actual completion of the operation in Latakia. After most of the northern province with the fortified areas of Salma, Gmam, Rabiya, Atira was rapidly liberated in late January - early February, the CAA slowed down and began to methodically gnaw out height after height, approaching the last stronghold of the militants - the city of Kinsabba.
The army solved two problems: accurate cleaning of the provincial territories near the Turkish border and squeezing the militants out of the mountainous terrain with minimal risk of losses. As a result, by Wednesday, the last heights around Kinsabba were taken, and they offer a view of the northwestern regions of the province of Idlib. A general offensive is expected here in the coming weeks, the direction is the large city of Jisr al-Shughur. According to some reports, Damascus plans to strike Idlib from four sides, and, without letting the militants come to their senses, regroup and receive support from Turkey, clear the north-west of the country in the next six months. If the politicians don't fail.
Recall that only Russia and Iran are present in Syria at the invitation of the official authorities. All other participants in the conflict can be considered, in fact, occupiers supporting separatist militant groups. So, who and what achieves being in Syria?
De-escalation zones
1. Idlib (together with the northeastern regions of Latakia, the west of Aleppo and the north of Hama) is a zone under the responsibility of Turkey. According to some estimates, there are more than 20 thousand militants operating there (including Nusra * and the Islamic State *). It is considered the most problematic area in the country.
2. Homs (north of the province: settlements of Er-Rastan, Tel Bissa). There are about 4 thousand militants there. And up to 200 thousand civilians.
3. Eastern Ghouta - a suburb of Damascus. Due to a number of irreconcilable groups (including the Nusra), this area is considered one of the hottest in the country. In total, according to some estimates, there are about 8,000 terrorists in this territory. At the same time, up to 500 thousand civilians live in Guta. Yesterday, government troops began to carry out an operation to clean up the region.
4. De-escalation zone in southwestern Syria - the situation there is complicated by the situation on the Syrian-Israeli border. It is difficult to deal with 15,000 militants, as shelling is regularly carried out from the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel. The fact is that Tel Aviv is against the presence of Iranian soldiers and consultants in these areas.
Iran, in turn, is the guarantor of the negotiation process in Astana. Iranian fighters and Hezbollah soldiers are fighting in the hottest spots. It is difficult to overestimate Tehran's contribution to the victories in Aleppo or Deir ez-Zor. Their goal is to destroy the radicals and build up authority in the region, the Shiite corridor Syria-Iraq-Lebanon.
Russia and Iran
The Russian authorities have repeatedly explained: our main goal is the destruction of terrorists "on the distant approaches." It's no secret that thousands of radicals who have joined the ranks of Ig, banned in Russia, come from the CIS countries.
Iran is also interested in defeating Islamic fundamentalism. The fact is that the religious component is also involved in the Syrian conflict. The Syrian ruling elite are Alawites, while the Iranians are Shiites. These are similar Muslim currents. They are opposed by another trend in Islam - Sunnism. Sunnis - this is Saudi Arabia, Qatar - are prone to the radicalization of Islam. Therefore, the militants of the IG banned in Russia are, in fact, radical Sunnis, who are sponsored by the Saudis and Qatar.
Turkey
Their goal is to protect themselves from the Kurds, who dream of their own state, including at the expense of Turkish territory.
The Americans and their European allies, in addition to the war against terrorists, also declare their goal to overthrow the regime of the current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Experts also name another unspoken goal of the United States - to gain a foothold in Syria in order to strengthen its influence in the region. The US has staked on the Kurds. Thus, from the US defense budget for 2018, about $ 1.8 billion is allocated for the training of American allies in Syria. Thus, even after the defeat of the ISIS (and the Americans entered Syria under this pretext), Washington will continue to be in Syria, as it has been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan for more than 10 years.
Kurds
The Kurds are basically in opposition to the Syrian authorities. Despite this, armed Kurdish detachments are considered one of the most effective forces in the fight against terrorists. Enlisting the support of the United States at a certain stage, they were able to deliver a powerful blow to the militants and gain a foothold in the oil-bearing regions of the country. What are the Kurds up to? Creation of autonomy with broad rights, and ideally - the creation of their own state.
Israel
Israel is not officially involved in the Syrian conflict. However, it would be naive to talk about real neutrality. As a neighboring state, Israel regularly intervenes in the course of events. The situation began to worsen when Iran and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah from Lebanon came to Syria to help. Then the Israeli Defense Ministry directly stated that they would do anything, but would not allow Tehran, which considers Israel its "enemy number one" (and vice versa), to gain a foothold near the Israeli borders.
Saudi Arabia
After the defeat of ISIS banned in Russia, the main forces of the militants were concentrated by Nusra (aka Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham - the new name of the Syrian al-Qaeda). Initially, it was a project of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But later Saudi Arabia swallowed up pro-Turkish thugs.
The main goal of the Saudis is to overthrow the current government in Syria.
Total
What awaits us
“In the tough confrontation in the Middle East, both Moscow and Washington understand the full measure of responsibility and try not to cross a certain line,” predicts Kirill Koktysh, PhD in Political Science, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO. - Precisely because they are afraid of possible consequences in the form of a “hot” global conflict. After all, any war begins when the parties do not have complete information about each other. For example, on the eve of the First World War, the German command misjudged the mobilization potential and economic opportunities of Russia, got involved in a long conflict and eventually lost. And now, if a war is possible, it is not in the Middle East, but where the great powers represented by Russia and the United States do not directly touch, which is why the “measure of responsibility” of the participants in a potential conflict will be much lower. So, for example, it can happen with North and South Korea.
But there are other opinions, more disturbing.
- Many are disappointed with the actions of the United States in the region. Even those who do not have a special love for Russia and the ruling regime of Assad, - says Elena Suponina, adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI). - The Americans are trying to monopolize everything that happens in the region without offering peaceful initiatives. And this frightens many participants in the confrontation.
Damascus (Syria), August 26. Exactly two years have passed since the Agreement on the Deployment of the Russian Aerospace Forces Air Group at the Khmeimim Air Base. The arrival of the Russian air group in the Middle East helped the Syrian government forces regain control over a significant part of the country's territory seized by radical groups. How the map of the war in Syria was rapidly changing thanks to the military assistance of the Russian Aerospace Forces - in the material Federal News Agency (FAN).
Northern Syria: a patchwork quilt
By the time the agreement was signed on the deployment of the air group of the Aerospace Forces in Syria, the map of the situation in the country was a huge patchwork quilt. The Syrian government controlled only a narrow strip of land in the west of the country, while the rest of the country came under the control of militants.
An illustrative example is the northern provinces of Syria: Latakia, Idlib, Aleppo and Hasakah. During the four years of the war, the province of Idlib was under the complete control of terrorists of all stripes - from the opposition "Free Syrian Army", to radical jihadists from Jabhat al-Nusra 1(terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation). The creation of a strong foothold of terrorists in Idlib allowed illegal armed groups to expand into neighboring provinces - Latakia and Aleppo. In addition, a significant part of the province of Aleppo fell under the control of terrorists. Islamic State 1(grouping is prohibited in the Russian Federation).
The Syrian city of Aleppo has become the epicenter of the confrontation between the Syrian army and terrorists. The fighting in the city continued with varying success, the militants managed to push the Syrian army in the course of dense street fighting. And the situation of the "Syrian Stalingrad", as Aleppo was often called, was getting worse - until the moment when the Russian Aerospace Forces appeared in Syria. As a result of Operation Dawn of Victory, the Syrian military, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Russian military advisers and sappers, managed to liberate Aleppo from militants.
The liberation of Aleppo was a turning point for Syria. After the end of the operation, the Syrian government forces, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, launched an offensive against the Islamic State militants, who occupied the east and southeast of the province. As a result of the confident actions of Russian aviation - in the last two months alone, to expel IS 1 from Aleppo, the Russian Aerospace Forces intensified sorties, inflicting more than 5,000 airstrikes on IS infrastructure - the Syrian army was able to break through to the Euphrates River and liberate the entire province from militants.
Central Syria: broad front against ISIS
The main battles with the terrorists of the "Islamic state" of the Russian Aerospace Forces were launched in the central provinces of Syria - Hama and Homs. The liberation of the eastern parts of the two provinces was a vital goal for Damascus: oil and gas fields are concentrated in this area, which the terrorists used to pump out and then smuggle oil products. In addition, terrorists could cut key routes - in particular, the strategically important "road of life" Salamiya - Itria - Hanasser - Aleppo that fed the besieged city.
The main goal in the first stage of the liberation of Hama and Homs was the operation in Palmyra. The ancient city, the pearl of the Syrian desert, Palmyra, has been in the hands of ISIS terrorists since 2015, who destroyed ancient monuments and objects of historical significance. For the first time, Palmyra was liberated on March 28, 2016: thanks to the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces from the air, thanks to the work of Russian military advisers and the Special Operations Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, the Syrian troops managed to occupy key heights and force the militants to surrender the city.
However, ISIS terrorists still found the strength for revenge: in December 2016: ISIS mobile units managed to capture Palmyra, as a result of which the Syrian army had to start all over again. Preparations for a new special operation lasted a month. According to the plan proposed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Syrian army was to advance on a wide front, with the most dense sweeping of the area. As a result, after three months of stubborn fighting, on March 2, 2017, Palmyra again returned to the control of the Syrian government.
An important task for the Syrian government was the liberation of the oil and gas fields of Palmyra. Thanks to the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, it was possible to establish control over the Khayan gas processing complex, the Ash-Shair oil field, as well as the Jazal and Mahrur fields. In addition, ISIS terrorists retreated from the city of Arak and the adjacent territory of the Al-Kheil oil field.
However, the fighting for the east of Hama and Homs is still going on. The main problem remained the IS fortified area in the village of Akerbat: here the terrorists concentrated thousands of militant forces who continued to attack oil and gas fields. However, after massive attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces, significant forces of terrorists left Akerbat, and the Syrian army, with the support of Russian aircraft from the air, cut the area into two "boilers", the battles for which continue to this day.
Damascus: the end of the enclaves
The support of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the fight against ISIS in Eastern Hama and Homs, as well as the resources released after the battle for Aleppo, allowed Syria to liberate the areas around Damascus from militants of the armed opposition. During 2012-2013 a whole belt of opposition enclaves belonging to various groups has formed around the Syrian capital. It got to the point that the shells of the militants reached the government quarters of Damascus, and the leaders of the terrorists called on their supporters to storm the presidential palace. 
After a radical turning point in the battle for Aleppo, the Syrian army was able to come to grips with the liberation of the enclaves. During the period from December 2016 to May 2017, the entire western part of the Guta oasis, the Wadi Barada region, which supplied Damascus with drinking water, as well as the Al-Kabun and Barzeh regions in the east of the Syrian capital, passed under the control of government forces. In addition, the militant enclave in Eastern Ghouta has significantly lost in size: the defeat of the Islamists led to the fact that the enclave agreed to the terms of the truce, the militants joined the negotiations in Astana and supported the introduction of a de-escalation zone.
Southern Syria: the borders are closed
The southern provinces of Syria - Dar'a, Quneitra and Suwayda - for a long time were partially controlled by opposition fighters and Jabhat al-Nusra terrorists. Over the course of several years, the Islamists managed to subjugate the territory near the Syrian-Jordanian border, as well as occupy the demilitarized zone near the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1973.
In addition, a significant part of the forces supported by the United States of America operated in southern Syria. The mercenaries of the "New Syrian Army", who were trained in Jordan, were preparing, with the support of the United States and Great Britain, to get ahead of the Syrian government army and occupy the southern border of Syria, hastily go to the province of Deir ez-Zor, occupied by the Islamic State, and gain a foothold in the country's key oil fields.
However, the plans of the West were not destined to come true. The offensive of the pro-Iranian Shiite detachments to the border with Iraq made it possible to cut off the pro-American militants from advancing to Deir ez-Zor. And soon, thanks to consultations between Russia and the United States, it was possible to create the first de-escalation zone in Syria - in three southern provinces.
Ahead - Deir ez-Zor
According to the head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Sergei Rudsky By the beginning of the operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria, official Damascus held control over 12 thousand square meters. kilometers of the country. However, thanks to the active military assistance from Russia, today Syrian troops control 74,000 square kilometers, quadrupling the boundaries of control.
As the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation stated recently Sergei Shoigu, thanks to military victories and the peace process in Astana, the civil war in Syria was effectively stopped. It was only thanks to the participation of the Russian Federation in the settlement of this conflict in the Middle East and the competent leadership of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that such success was achieved. Now the Syrian army is busy clearing two pockets of the "Islamic State" in the eastern parts of the provinces of Hama and Homs. According to the Ministry of Defense, the restoration of control over these territories will create a convenient springboard for an offensive in the last province controlled by terrorists - Deir ez-Zor. And of course, the key role in this offensive will certainly be played by Russia.
1 The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The main sponsors of Middle Eastern (and international) terrorism have decided that the economic vectors of investments in proteges need to be urgently reviewed. Investments, as they say, are not justified at the level that was originally included in the expected result. And if at first everything worked out just fine for such investors, now, for example, this card is signaling problems.
The territories controlled by the so-called “moderate opposition” (in general, by “Al-Qaeda” (* banned in the Russian Federation)) have not only shrunk in size, but also disintegrated into separate links. The largest group of terrorists, numbering about 12 thousand people (according to the most conservative estimates), is located in a semicircle - in the territory of the province of Idlib (al-Qaeda forces adjoin it in the western part of the province of Aleppo and in the north of the province of Hama). Another large territorial "piece" is in the northern part of the mentioned province of Aleppo (Haleb).
Given the fact that it is strategically necessary for these groups to stick together and have access to, to put it mildly, sympathetic forces in Turkey, the problem of Damascus's opponents is visible to the naked eye. The problem is that there is access to Turkish sympathizers, but there is no connection into a single whole. Those flows of support that came from Turkish territory along the so-called northern route to the main "logistics center" - Aleppo, "sympathizers" have to share. They are partially sent towards Idlib (bypassing), since the city of Aleppo itself is under the complete control of the Syrian government army, and between the grouping in the north of Aleppo and Idlib there are also Kurdish armed groups that miraculously retained their positions after the Turkish operation Euphrates Shield. The operation, as you know, was declared as anti-ISIS.
By the way, the map itself only confirms the fact that the Turkish operation had frankly little to do with the real fight against ISIS (* DAESH, DAESH - prohibited in the Russian Federation), but it had a direct bearing on the attempt to create a buffer zone for junction with groups operating in Syria. The buffer seems to be really created - in it (on the border with Turkey in the northern regions of the province of Aleppo) the scum called "armed opposition" is warmed up. The only problem for the Turkish forces sponsoring this scum is that it is unlikely that it will be possible to connect the ward group in the north of Aleppo with the main mass in Idlib in the current situation. The chance was for a fake with Assad's use of a chemical. But today, even Ivanka Trump seems to have begun to have vague doubts about the sarin-resistant White Helmets and the so-called Istanbul-based Sham correspondents.
Other destinations are Israel and Jordan. Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are also somehow strangely pressed against the borders of these countries. Plus, Israel almost regularly shoots across the border at the positions of the SAR army, even if a projectile is sent in the Israeli direction by a “bomjahid” from Ahrar al-Sham or Jabhat an-Nusra (all this is g ... prohibited in the Russian Federation). Is it banned in Jordan and Israel? - question. Oh, yes... In the same place, "Assad must go." And if they were going to help him in this with the use of "akhrars", "shams" and other creeping weeds. And then why are there bans, isn't it, gentlemen partners?
And in general, judging by the map of the distribution of forces in Syria, the so-called armed (and in the same place "moderate") opposition prefers to fight for those territories that are adjacent to the borders of foreign states. And why would Bashar al-Assad repeatedly accuse the mentioned Israel, Turkey and Jordan of complicity in terrorism? Is the "bloody-sarin tyrant Assad" trying to cast a shadow on the fence of his most honest and blameless neighbors?
By the way, materials have repeatedly appeared in the Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian media in which it was stated that Russia “created a buffer” in the form of the LDNR in eastern Ukraine and supports those who are fighting the Kiev regime there. And, judging by the map of Syria, the Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian media are familiar with the situation ... Experienced - what else can I say ...
Against this background, (Israeli) publish information about the statement of the leader of the terrorist group "Al-Qaeda" Ayman al-Zawahiri. This same Zawahiri actually makes it clear that terrorist cannon fodder has ceased to justify the hopes placed on him by sympathetic states and non-state structures. The al-Qaeda leader announced that it was time to move on again to "guerrilla warfare against the crusaders and their allies", adding that the "allies of the crusaders" are "Alawites and Shiites". This is said by Mr., the very structure headed by which today at one time - in the vastness of Afghanistan - was created by the American "crusaders". Whether they carried a cross or something else to Afghanistan is more of a rhetorical question, but the fact itself...
Analyzing the statements of al-Zawahiri, one can come to the conclusion that a large-scale war with full-fledged clashes, which has been going on in Syria in recent years, takes too many resources from sponsors, without leading to the desired result. Billions have already been spent, and the territories controlled by the "homeless" continue to shrink. Since the beginning of 2017 alone, the Syrian army has liberated more than 4,000 square kilometers of territory and hundreds of settlements from terrorists, including ISIS terrorists.
According to the "investors" in the Syrian crisis, it's time to change tactics and move on to the practice of pinpoint terror - in the most vulnerable places - without a clearly defined front. And then there’s this Trump with his savings: Kyiv’s funding is going to be cut, UN funding too. And if it really is going to sign up as the winners of ISIS, then the same Al-Qaeda will again have to shrink to explosions, attacks and other provocations, for which sponsors will not need too much money.
As a conclusion, thousands of "moderates" can understand Zawahiri's call in such a way that it's time to shave their beards... The owner will give less pennies - the number of shaved beards will increase. But it is unlikely that this will bring the long-awaited and full-fledged peace to Syria in the near future. Not for that, the generators of chaos brewed all this mess.
P.S. On the eve of the organization involved in monitoring the information and disinformation activity of terrorists on the Internet - SITE - said that the responsibility for the attack in St. Petersburg claimed responsibility for the attack in St. Petersburg associated with "al-Qaeda" (*) grouping. Allegedly, the terrorist Jalolov received instructions almost from the leader of Al-Qaeda (*) Zawahiri.