Is there a connection between a variety of events. Which gives the sustainability and predictability of the development of society

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Message themes and objectives of the lesson.

Activation of educational activities.

Is there a connection between a variety of events and phenomena in society? What gives sustainability and predictability of society?

Summary of software material.

Story with interview elements

Features of the social system

In other words, society is a complex system of systems, a kind superSystem.

Secondly, characteristic feature Societies as systems are the presence of various-quality elements in its composition, both material (various technical devices, institutions, etc.) and ideal (values, ideas, traditions, etc.). For example, an economic sphere includes enterprises, vehicles, raw materials and materials, manufacturing goods and at the same time economic knowledge, rules, values, samples of economic behavior and much more.

Thirdly, the main element Societies as a system is a person who has the ability to set goals and choosing means of carrying out its activities. This makes social systems more changeable, movable than natural.

Social life is in constant change. The pace and scope of these changes may be different; In the history of mankind, periods are known when the established order of life has not changed in its foundations in centuries, but over time, the rates of change began to increase.

Hence, human - This is a universal element of all social systems, because it is certainly incorporated into each of them.

Like any system, society is an ordered integrity. This means that the components of the system are not in chaotic mess, but, on the contrary, occupy a certain position in the system and are in particularly associated with other components. Consequently, the system has integrative Quality that is inherent in both of the whole. None of the components of the system, considered separately, does not possess these quality. It is the quality, the result of integration and the relationship of all components of the system. Just as individual human organs (heart, stomach, liver, etc.) do not possess the properties of man and the economy, the health system, the state and other elements of society do not have those qualities that are inherent in society as a whole. And only due to the diverse bonds that existed between the components of the social system, it turns into a single whole, that is, there is a single human organism due to the interaction of various human organs).

Integral, i.e., the common inherent in the entire system, the quality of any system is not a simple amount of qualities, its components, but represent new quality arising from the relationship, the interaction of components included in it. In general, this is the quality of society as a social system - ability create All the necessary conditions for its existence, to produce everything for the collective life of people. In philosophy self-sufficiency Considered in quality main differences Societies from the components of its parts. As human bodies cannot exist outside a holistic organism, there is no one of the subsystems of society outside the society as a system.

Another trait of society as the system is that this system is among self-governing. The managerial function performs the political subsystem, which gives the consistency to all components generating social integrity.

Any system, whether technical (unit with an automatic control system), or a biological (animal), or a social (society), is in a specific environment with which it interacts. Wednesday The social system of any country is both nature and the world community. Changes in the state of the natural environment, events in the world community, in the international arena are a kind of "signals" to which society should react. It usually strives to either adapt to changes occurring in the environment, or adapt the environment to its needs. In other words, the system responds to "signals" in one way or another. At the same time, it implements its main functions: adaptation; sacrifice i.e. the ability to maintain their integrity that ensures the implementation of its tasks, affecting the environmental and social environment; sample maintenance - ability to maintain their internal structure; integration - Ability to integrate, i.e. include new parts, new public education (phenomena, processes, etc.) into a single whole.

Social institutions

The word "institute" translated from Latin instituto. means "setting". In Russian, it is often used to indicate higher educational institutions. In addition, as you know from the course of the main school, in the field of the right of the word "institute" means the set of rules of law governing one social relation or several relations related to each other (for example, a marriage institution).

In sociology social institutions Called historically established sustainable forms of joint activities, regulated by the norms, traditions, customs and aimed at meeting the fundamental needs of society.

This definition to which it is advisable to return by reading to the end the training material on this issue, we will look at, based on the concept of "activity" (see §1). In the history of society, sustainable activities have developed aimed at meeting the most important vital needs. Sociologists allocate five such public needs:

the need for reproduction of the kind;

safety and social order;

need for existence;

the need to gain knowledge, socializing the younger generation, training;

the need for solving spiritual problems of the meaning of life.

institute of Family and Marriage;

political institutions, especially the state;

economic institutions, primarily production;

institutes of Education, Science and Culture;

institute of Religion.

Each of these institutions unites Large masses of people to meet one or another need and achieve a certain purpose of personal, group or social character.

The emergence of social institutions led to consolidation Specific types of interaction, made them constant and mandatory for all members of this society.

So, the Social Institute is, above all, a combination of personsespecially occupied by a certain type of activity and providing in the process of this activity satisfaction with a certain meaningful need for society (for example, all employees of the education system).

Next, Institute enshrined by the system of legal and moral norms, traditions and customs,regulating appropriate behaviors. (Recall, for example, what social norms regulate the behavior of people in the family).

Another characteristic feature of the Social Institute - availability of institutions Equipped with defined material means necessary for any type of activity. (Think, how social institutions include a school, plant, police. Give your examples of institutions and organizations related to each of the most important social institutions.)

Since new needs and conditions appear in the course of the historical process, new activities and related ties appear. Society is interested in giving them an orderly, regulatory nature, i.e. in their institutionalization.

Practical conclusions.

Society is a supervised system, and in order to live with him in harmony, it is necessary to adapt (adapt) to it. Otherwise, not avoiding conflicts, failures in your life and activity. The condition for adaptation to modern society is knowledge about it, which gives a social studies.

Society can be understood only subject to the detection of its quality as a holistic system. To do this, it is necessary to consider various sections of the structure of society (the main areas of the activities of people, a combination of social institutions, social groups), systematizing, integrating relations between them, the features of the management process in a self-governing public system.

In real life, you will have to cooperate with various social institutions. To make this interaction successful, you need to know the goals and nature of the activities that we are interested in the social institution. This will help you to study the legal norms regulating this type of activity.

In the following sections of the course, which characterize certain areas of people's activities, it is useful to re-refer to the content of this paragraph to, relying on it, consider each sphere as part of the holistic system. This will help to understand the role and place of each sphere, each social institution in the development of society.

From the work of a modern American sociologist E. Shilza "Society and society: macrosociological approach."

... So, we were convinced that society is not just a combination of united people, initial and cultural teams that interact and exchanging services with each other. All these teams form a society due to its existence under common power which performs its control territory indicated by the boundaries Supports and hits more or less common culture. It is these factors that transform a set of relatively specialized initial corporate and cultural teams into society.

Questions and tasks for the document

What components, according to E. Shilza, are included in society? Indicate, to which areas of the Company's life include each of them.

Highlight from the listed components those that are social institutions.

What does the concept of "system" mean?

What social (public) systems differ from natural?

What is the main quality of society as a holistic system?

What are the links and the relationship of society as a system with the environment?

What is a social institution?

Describe the main social institutions.

What are the main features of the social institution?

What is the importance of institutionalization?

Applying a systematic approach, analyze the Russian society of the beginning of the XX century.

Describe all the main features of the Social Institute on the example of the Institute of Education. Use the material and recommendations of the practical conclusions of this paragraph.

In the collective work of Russian sociologists say: "... Society exists and functions in diverse forms ... A really important question is reduced to ensure that the society itself is not losing the society, behind the trees - forests." How is this approval related to the understanding of society as a system? Argument your answer.

V. S. Solovyov (1853-1900), Russian philosopher

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Brief description of the document:

Lesson on social science on the topic "Society as a complex dynamic system"

Purpose: 1. To know with the main components of society as a social system

2. Keep the main social institutions

3. The main features of the Social Institute.

I. Topics and lesson objectives.

II. Activation of educational activities.

Is there a connection between a variety of events and phenomena in society? What gives sustainability and predictability of society?

III. Summary of software material.

Story with interview elements

In the second part of the definition of the concept of "society", given in §1, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe relationship of people and the interaction of various spheres of social life is underlined. In the philosophical literature, society is defined as a "dynamic system". The new concept of "system" may seem complicated, but it makes sense in it to understand, as there are many objects that are covered by this concept. Systems are both our universe, and the culture of the individual people, and the activity of the person himself. The word "system" of Greek origin means "a whole, composed of parts", "Aggregate". Thus, each system includes the interacting parts: subsystems and elements. The main importance is acquired by the relationship between its parts. Dynamic systems allow various changes, development, new and dying of old parts and connections between them.

Features of the social system

What are the characteristic features of society as a system? How does this system differ from natural systems? In the public sciences identified a number of such differences.

First, society as the system is complex, since it includes many levels, subsystems, elements. So, we can talk about human society on a global scale, about society within the same country, about various public groups in which each person (nation, class, family, etc.) is included.

The company's macrostructure as a system consists of four subsystems, which are the main spheres of human activity - the material and social, political, spiritual. Each of these spheres you know has its own complex structure and itself is a complex system. Thus, the political sphere acts as a system that includes a large number of components - the state, party, etc. But the state, for example, is also a system with a plurality of components.

Thus, any of the existing spheres of society, being in relation to the society subsystem, at the same time itself acts as a rather complex system. Therefore, we can talk about the hierarchy of systems consisting of a number of different levels.

In other words, society is a complex system of systems, a kind of supersystem.

Secondly, a characteristic feature of society as a system is the presence of various-quality elements in its composition, both material (various technical devices, institutions, etc.) and ideal (values, ideas, traditions, etc.). For example, an economic sphere includes enterprises, vehicles, raw materials and materials, manufacturing goods and at the same time economic knowledge, rules, values, samples of economic behavior and much more.

Third, the main element of society as the system is a person who has the ability to set goals and choosing means of carrying out its activities. This makes social systems more changeable, movable than natural.

Social life is in constant change. The pace and scope of these changes may be different; In the history of mankind, periods are known when the established order of life has not changed in its foundations in centuries, but over time, the rates of change began to increase.

From the course of history, you know that in societies that existed in various epochs, there were certain qualitative changes, while natural systems of those periods of significant changes have not undergone. This fact suggests that society is a dynamic system with a property that in science is expressed by the concepts of "change", "development", "progress", "regress", "Evolution", "Revolution" and so on.

Consequently, a person is a universal element of all social systems, because it is certainly incorporated into each of them.

Like any system, society is an ordered integrity. This means that the components of the system are not in chaotic mess, but, on the contrary, occupy a certain position in the system and are in particularly associated with other components. Consequently, the system has an integrative quality that is inherent in it as a whole. None of the components of the system, considered separately, does not possess these quality. It is the quality, the result of integration and the relationship of all components of the system. Just as individual human organs (heart, stomach, liver, etc.) do not possess the properties of man and the economy, the health system, the state and other elements of society do not have those qualities that are inherent in society as a whole. And only due to the diverse bonds that existed between the components of the social system, it turns into a single whole, that is, there is a single human organism due to the interaction of various human organs).

Illustrate the links between subsystems and elements of society can be various examples. The study of the distant past of humanity allowed scientists to conclude that the moral relations of people under conditions were built on a collectivist basis, i.e., speaking in modern language, the priority was always given to the team, and not a separate individual. It is also known that moral standards that existed many tribes in those archaic times allowed the murder of weak members of the kind - sick children, old people - and even cannibal. Did they influence these ideas and the views of people about the limits of morally admissible real material conditions for their existence? The answer is clear: undoubtedly influenced. The need to first produce material benefits, doomed to the ambulance of a person who left the genus, and laid the foundations of collectivist morality. Guided by the same ways of struggle for existence and survival, people did not consider immoral to be freed from those who could become a burden for the team.

Another example may be the relationship of legal norms and socio-economic relations. Let us turn to the famous historical facts. In one of the first arches of the laws of Kievan Rus, which is called Russian truth, various punishments for killing are provided. At the same time, the measure of punishment was determined primarily by the person in the system of hierarchical relations, his belonging to a particular social layer or group. So, a fine for the murder of Tiuna (ruler) was huge: it was 80 hryvnia and was equal to the cost of 80 oxen or 400 branners. The life of a sideway or hull was estimated at 5 hryvnia, that is, 16 times cheaper.

Integral, i.e., the general, inherent in the entire system, the quality of any system is not a simple amount of qualities, its components, but represent a new quality resulting from the relationship, the interaction of components included in it. In the most general form, this is the quality of society as a social system - the ability to create all the necessary conditions for its existence, to produce everything demanded for the collective life of people. In philosophy, self-sufficiency is considered as the main difference of society from the components of its parts. As human bodies cannot exist outside a holistic organism, there is no one of the subsystems of society outside the society as a system.

Another trait of society as the system is that this system refers to the number of self-governing. The managerial function performs the political subsystem, which gives the consistency to all components generating social integrity.

Any system, whether technical (unit with an automatic control system), or a biological (animal), or a social (society), is in a specific environment with which it interacts. The social system of any country is both nature and the world community. Changes in the state of the natural environment, events in the world community, in the international arena are a kind of "signals" to which society should react. It usually strives to either adapt to changes occurring in the environment, or adapt the environment to its needs. In other words, the system responds to "signals" in one way or another. At the same time, it implements its main functions: adaptation; sacredity, i.e. the ability to maintain their integrity ensuring the implementation of its tasks, affecting the environmental and social environment; maintaining the sample - the ability to maintain their internal structure; Integration - the ability to integrate, i.e. include new parts, new publications (phenomena, processes, etc.) into a single integer.

Social institutions

The most important component of society as systems are social institutions.

The word "institute" translated from Latin Instituto means "establishment". In Russian, it is often used to indicate higher educational institutions. In addition, as you know from the course of the main school, in the field of the right of the word "institute" means the set of rules of law governing one social relation or several relations related to each other (for example, a marriage institution).

In sociology, social institutions are called historically established sustainable forms of joint activities, regulated by the norms, traditions, customs and aimed at meeting the fundamental needs of society.

- the need for reproduction of the kind;

- security and social order;

- the need for existence;

- the need to gain knowledge, the socialization of the younger generation, training;

- The need for solving spiritual problems of the meaning of life.

Accordingly, these needs in society also developed activities that, in turn, demanded the necessary organization, streamlining, creating certain institutions and other structures, developing rules that ensure the achievement of the expected result. These conditions for the successful implementation of the main activities were replied by historically established social institutions:

- Institute of Family and Marriage;

- Political institutions, especially the state;

- Economic institutions, primarily production;

- Institutes of Education, Science and Culture;

- Institute of Religion.

Each of these institutions combines large masses of people to meet one or another need and achieve a certain purpose of personal, group or public.

The emergence of social institutions led to the consolidation of specific types of interaction, made them constant and mandatory for all members of this society.

So, the Social Institute is, first of all, a set of persons employed by a certain type of activity and providing this activity in the process of satisfaction with a certain need for society (for example, all employees of the education system).

Further, the Institute is enshrined by the system of legal and moral norms, traditions and customs regulating the relevant behaviors. (Recall, for example, what social norms regulate the behavior of people in the family).

Another characteristic feature of the Social Institute is the presence of institutions provided by certain material means necessary for any type of activity. (Think, how social institutions include a school, plant, police. Give your examples of institutions and organizations related to each of the most important social institutions.)

Any of these institutions is integrated into the socio-political, legal, value structure of society, which allows us to legitimize the activities of this institute and control it.

The social institution will stabilize social relations, contributes consistency in the actions of members of society. For the Social Institute, a clear distinction between the functions of each of the subjects of interaction, consistency of their actions, a high level of regulation and control. (Think how these features of the Social Institute are manifested in the education system, in particular at school.)

Consider the main signs of the Social Institute on the example of such an important institution of society as a family. First of all, each family is based on intimacy and emotional attachment a small group of people associated with the bonds of marriage (spouses) and blood kinship (parents and children). The need to create a family is one of the fundamental, i.e. the fundamental, human needs. At the same time, the family performs important functions in society: the birth and raising of children, economic support for young and disabled and much more. Each member of the family takes her special position in it, involving appropriate behavior: parents (or one of them) provide livelihoods, keep households, are engaged in raising children. Children, in turn, learn, help around the house. Such behavior is regulated not only by intrameal rules, but also by public norms: morality and right. So, the public morality condemns the lack of concern for senior family members about the younger. The law enshrines the responsibility and obligations of spouses in relation to each other, to children, adult children to the elderly parents. Creating a family, the main milestones of family life are accompanied by the traditions and rites established in society. For example, in many countries, the marriage ritual includes the exchange of spouses with wedding rings.

The presence of social institutions makes the behavior of people more predictable, and society is generally more sustainable.

In addition to the main social institutions, there are monkey. So, if the chief political institution is the state, then the unmarked - the institute of the judiciary or, as in our country, the Institute of the President's representatives in the regions, etc.

The presence of social institutions reliably provides regular, self-prompting satisfaction of vital needs. The social institution makes the relationship between people are not random and not chaotic, but permanent, reliable, sustainable. Institutional cooperation is a well-established procedure for social life in the main areas of people's vital activity. The more social needs are satisfied with social institutions, the more developed society.

In Russia as a result of the reforms of the end of the XX century. Appeared, for example, such a type of activity as entrepreneurship. The streamlining of this activity led to the emergence of various types of firms, demanded the publication of laws regulating entrepreneurial activities contributed to the formation of relevant traditions.

In the political life of our country, the institutions of parliamentarism, multiparty, institute of the presidency arose. The principles and rules for their functioning are enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, relevant laws.

In the same way, the institutionalization of other activities that arose over the past decades have occurred.

It happens that the development of society requires the modernization of the activities of social institutions that have historically preceded in previous periods. So, in the changed conditions, it was necessary to solve the problems of attachment to the culture of the young generation. Hence the steps taken to modernize the Institute of Education, as a result of which the institutionalization of a single state exam may occur, the new content of educational programs.

So, we can return to the definition given at the beginning of this part of the paragraph. Think what characterizes social institutions as highly organized systems. Why are their structure stable? What is the meaning of the deep integration of their elements? What is the manifold, flexibility, dynamism of their functions?

III. Practical conclusions.

1. Society is a supervised system, and in order to live with him in harmony, it is necessary to adapt (adapt) to it. Otherwise, not avoiding conflicts, failures in your life and activity. The condition for adaptation to modern society is knowledge about it, which gives a social studies.

2. It is possible to understand society only if the identification of its quality as a holistic system is detected. To do this, it is necessary to consider various sections of the structure of society (the main areas of the activities of people, a combination of social institutions, social groups), systematizing, integrating relations between them, the features of the management process in a self-governing public system.

3. In real life, you will have to cooperate with various social institutions. To make this interaction successful, you need to know the goals and nature of the activities that we are interested in the social institution. This will help you to study the legal norms regulating this type of activity.

4. In the following sections of the course, characterizing certain areas of people, it is useful to re-refer to the content of this paragraph to, relying on it, consider each sphere as part of the holistic system. This will help to understand the role and place of each sphere, each social institution in the development of society.

IV. Document.

From the work of the modern American sociologist E. Shilza "Society and society: a macrosociological approach."

What is included in society? As already spoke, the most differentiated of them consist not only of families and related groups, but also from associations, unions, firms and farms, schools and universities, armies, churches and sects, parties and numerous other corporate bodies or organizations that In turn, there are borders that determine the terms of the members over which the relevant corporate authorities are parents, managers, chairmen, etc., etc. - carry out a well-known measure of control. This also includes systems, formally and informally organized according to the territorial principle - communities, villages, districts, cities, districts, - all of them also have some traits of society. Further, this includes unorganized aggregates of people within society - social classes or layers, classes and professions, religions, language groups, which have a culture inherent to a greater extent to those who have a certain status or occupies a certain position than everyone else.

... So, we were convinced that society is not just a combination of united people, initial and cultural teams that interact and exchanging services with each other. All these teams form a society due to its existence under the general government, which carries out its control over the territory designated by the boundaries, supports and hits more or less common culture. It is these factors that transform a set of relatively specialized initial corporate and cultural teams into society.

Questions and tasks for the document

1) What components, according to E. Shilza, come to society? Indicate, to which areas of the Company's life include each of them.

2) Highlight from the listed components that are social institutions.

3) Relying on the text, prove that the author considers society as a social system.

V. Questions for self-test.

1. What does the concept of "system" mean?

2. What are social (public) systems differ from natural?

3. What is the main quality of society as a holistic system?

4. What are the links and the relationship of society as a system with the environment?

5. What is a social institution?

6. Describe the main social institutions.

7. What are the main features of the Social Institute?

8. What is the importance of institutionalization?

Vi. Tasks.

1. Applying a systematic approach, analyze the Russian society of the beginning of the XX century.

2. Describe all the main features of the Social Institute on the example of the Institute of Education. Use the material and recommendations of the practical conclusions of this paragraph.

3. In the collective work of Russian sociologists, it is said: "... Society exists and functions in diverse forms ... A really important question is reduced to ensure that the society is not losing the society, behind the forest trees." How is this approval related to the understanding of society as a system? Argument your answer.

VII. Thoughts wise.

"A person is a social being, and the highest case of his life, the final goal of his efforts is not in his personal destiny, but in the social destinies of all mankind."

V. S. Solovyov (1853-1900), Russian philosopher

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Is there a connection between a variety of events and phenomena in society? What does the sustainability and predictability of society?

In the second part of the definition of the concept of "society" given by B-1, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe relationship of people and the interaction of various spheres of social life is emphasized. In the philosophical literature, society is defined as a "dynamic system". The new concept of "system" may seem complex, but it makes sense to figure it out, since there are quite a few objects that are covered by this concept. Systems are both our universe, and the culture of the individual people, and the activity of the person himself. The word "system" of Greek origin means "a whole, composed of parts", "Aggregate". Thus, each system includes the interacting parts: subsystems and elements, the main importance in the relationship and relationships between its parts are acquired. Dynamic systems allow various changes, development, new and dying of old parts and connections between them.

Features of the social system

What are the characteristic features of society as a system? How does this system differ from natural systems? In the public sciences identified a number of such differences.

First, society as the system is complex, since it includes many levels, subsystems, elements. So, we can talk about human society globally, about society within the same country, about various public groups in which each person (nation, class, family, etc.) is included.

The macrostructure of society as a system consists of four subsystems, which are the main spheres of human activity - the material and social, political, spiritual. Each of these spheres you know has its own complex structure and itself is a complex system. So, the political sphere acts as a system that includes a large number of components - the state, party, etc. But the state, for example, is also a system with a variety of components.

In other words, society is a complex system of systems, a kind of supersystem.

Secondly, a characteristic feature of society as a system is the presence of various-quality elements in its composition, both material (various technical devices, institutions, etc.) and ideal (values, ideas, traditions, etc.). For example, the economic sphere includes enterprises, vehicles, raw materials and materials, manufacturing goods and at the same time economic knowledge, rules, values, samples of economic behavior and much more.

Like any system, society is an ordered integrity. This means that the components of the system are not in chaotic mess, but, on the contrary, occupy within the system a certain position and in a certain way associated with other components. Consequently, the system has an integrative quality that is inherent in it as a whole. None of the components of the system, considered separately, does not possess these quality. It is the quality, the result of integration and the relationship of all components of the system. As well as individual organs of a person (heart, stomach, liver, etc.) do not possess the properties of man and the economy, the health system, the state and other elements of society do not have those qualities that are inherent in society as a whole. And only due to the diverse bonds that existed between the components of the social system, it turns into a single whole, i.e. In society (such as the interaction of various human organs there is a single human body).

Illustrate the links between subsystems and elements of society can be various examples. The study of the distant past of humanity allowed scientists to conclude that. With the moral relations of people in conditions of primitives were built on collectivist Stophd. e., speaking in modern language, priority has always been given to the team, and not a separate individual. It is also known that moral standards that have existed many tribes in those archaic times, allowed the murder of weak members of the kind - sick children, old people and even cannibalism. Did they influence these ideas and the views of people about the limits of morally admissible real material conditions for their existence? The answer is clear: undoubtedly influenced. The need to first produce material benefits, the doomed to the ambulance of a person who left the genus, and laid the foundations of collectivist morality. Guided by the same ways of struggle for existence and survival, people did not consider immoral to be freed from those who could become a burden for the team.

Another example may be the relationship of legal norms and socio-economic relations. Let us turn to the famous historical facts. In one of the first arches of the laws of Kievan Rus, which is called Russian truth, various punishments for killing are provided. At the same time, the measure of punishment was determined primarily by the person in the system of hierarchical relations, his belonging to a particular social layer or group. So, a fine for the murder of Tiuna (ruler) was huge: it was 80 hryvnia and was equal to the cost of 80 oxen or 400 branners. The life of a sought or hull was estimated at 5 hryvnia, i.e. 16 times cheaper.

Integral, i.e. The general systems inherent in the entire system, the qualities of any system are not a simple amount of qualities, its components, but represent a new quality resulting from the relationship, the interaction of components included in it. In the most general form, this is the quality of society as a social system - the ability to create all the necessary conditions for its existence, to produce everything for the collective life of people. In philosophy, self-sufficiency is considered as the main difference of society from the components of its parts. As human bodies cannot exist outside a holistic organism, there is no one of the subsystems of society outside the society as a system.

Another trait of society as the system is that this system refers to the number of self-governing.

The managerial function performs the political subsystem, which gives the consistency to all components generating social integrity.

Any system, whether technical (unit with an automatic control system), or a biological (animal), or a social (society), is in a specific environment with which it interacts. The social system of any country is both nature and the world community. Changes in the state of the natural environment, events in the world community, in the international arena are a kind of "signals" to which society should react. It usually strives to either adapt to changes occurring in the environment, or adapt the environment to its needs. In other words, the system responds to "signals" in one way or another. At the same time, it implements its main functions: adaptation; Calibration, i.e. the ability to maintain their integrity ensuring the implementation of its tasks, affecting the native and social environment; Maintaining schA - the ability to maintain their internal structure; integration - ability to integrate, i.e. Include new parts, new public education in a single whole.

Initially, being just a meeting of information and empirical observations of the game in the bone, the theory of probability has become a solid science. The first who gave her mathematical framework was the farm and Pascal.

From thinking about eternal to probability theory

Two personalities who are obliged by many fundamental formulas, Blaise Pascal and Thomas Bayes, are known as deeply believers, the latter was the Presbyterian priest. Apparently, the desire of these two scientists to prove the fallacy of views on some kind of fortune, giving good luck to their pets, gave impetus to research in this area. After all, in fact, any gambling with its winnings and losses is just a symphony of mathematical principles.

Thanks to the Azart Cavaller, who was equally a player and a person who is not indifferent to science, Pascal was forced to find a way to calculate the probability. Deverage was interested in such a question: "How many times should you throw two bones in pairs so that the likelihood of getting 12 points exceeded 50%?". The second question is extremely interested in Cavallar: "How to share a bet between participants of an unfinished game?" Of course, Pascal successfully responded to both questions, which became the involuntary impetus for the development of probability theory. Interestingly, the person's person remained known in the art, and not in the literature.

Previously, no mathematician has yet made attempts to calculate the probabilities of events, since it was believed that this is just a gady decision. Blaise Pascal gave the first definition of the likelihood of an event and showed that this is a specific figure that can be justified with mathematical means. Probability Theory has become the basis for statistics and is widely used in modern science.

What is accidents

If we consider the test that you can repeat the infinite number of times, then you can define a random event. This is one of the probable outcomes of experience.

Experience is the implementation of concrete actions in constant conditions.

To work with the results of experience, events are usually denoted by letters a, b, c, d, e ...

Probability of a random event

So that you can begin the mathematical part of the probability, you need to define all its components.

The likelihood of an event is pronounced in the numerical form of the measure of the appearance of a certain event (A or B) as a result of experience. The probability of as p (a) or p (b) is indicated.

In probability theory, distinguish:

reliable The event is guaranteed as a result of the experiment P (Ω) \u003d 1;
impossible The event can never occur p (Ø) \u003d 0;
random The event lies between reliable and impossible, that is, the probability of its appearance is possible, but not guaranteed (the probability of a random event is always within 0≤p (a) ≤ 1).

Relationships between events

Consider both the same and the sum of the events of A + B, when the event is counted in the implementation of at least one of the components, A or B, or both - A and V.

In relation to each other, events can be:

Equilibrium.
Compatible.
Incompatible.
Opposite (mutually exclusive).
Dependent.

If two events can occur with an equal probability, then they equilibrium.

If the appearance of an event and does not reduce the likelihood of the appearance of an event b, then they compatible.

If events A and B never happen simultaneously in the same experience, they are called incompatible. Throwing coins is a good example: the appearance of the rush is automatically the fault of the eagle.

The probability for the amount of such incompatible events consists of the probability of each of the events:

P (a + c) \u003d p (a) + p (c)

If the onset of one event makes it impossible to occur other, they are called opposite. Then one of them is designated as a, and the other - ā (read as "not a"). The appearance of an event A means that ā did not happen. These two events form a complete group with the sum of probability equal to 1.

Dependent events have a mutual influence, reducing or increasing each other's probability.

Relationships between events. Examples

Examples are much easier to understand the principles of probability theory and events combinations.

The experience that will be conducted is to pull out the balls from the box, and the result of each experience is an elemental outcome.

Event is one of the possible outcomes of the experience - a red ball, a blue ball, a ball with a number six, etc.

Test number 1. 6 balls are involved, three of which are painted into blue, odd numbers are applied on them, and three others are red with even numbers.

Test number 2. 6 balls of blue with numbers from one to six are involved.

Based on this example, you can call combinations:

Reliable event. In №2 Event "Get a blue ball" is reliable, since the probability of its appearance is equal to 1, since all the balls blue and miss can not be. Whereas the event "get a ball with a number 1" is random.
Impossible event. In №1 With blue and red balls The event "get a purple ball" is impossible, since the probability of its appearance is 0.
Equal events. In №1 Events "get a ball with a number 2" and "get a ball with a number 3" equilibrium, and the events "get a ball with an even number" and "get a ball with a number 2" have a different probability.
Compatible events. Two times in a row to get a six in the process of throwing a playing bone - these are compatible events.
Incompatible events. In the same isp. №1 Events "get a red ball" and "get a ball with an odd number" cannot be combined in the same experience.
Opposite events. The most striking example of this is to throw coins when the eagle pulling is tantamount to the non-captivity of the river, and the sum of their probabilities is always 1 (full group).
Dependent events. So, in the isp. №1 You can set the goal to remove the red balloon twice in a row. His extraction or unknown for the first time affects the probability of extracting a second time.

It can be seen that the first event significantly affects the probability of the second (40% and 60%).

Event probability formula

The transition from gadetting reflections to exact data is due to the translating theme into the mathematical plane. That is, judgments about a random event like "high probability" or "minimum probability" can be transferred to specific numerical data. Such material is permissible to evaluate, compare and introduce into more complex calculations.

From the point of view of calculation, the definition of the probability of an event is the ratio of the number of elementary positive outcomes to the amount of all possible outcomes of the experience of a relatively specific event. It is indicated by the probability of p (a), where R means the word "probabilite", which is translated from the French as "probability."

So, the probability formula event:

Where M is the number of favorable outcomes for the event A, N - the sum of all outcomes possible for this experience. In this case, the probability of events always lies between 0 and 1:

0 ≤ p (a) ≤ 1.

Calculation of the probability of an event. Example

Take the spell. №1 with balls, which is previously described: 3 blue balls with numbers 1/3/5 and 3 red with 2/4/6 numbers.

Based on this test, several different tasks can be viewed:

A - Loss of the Red Bowl. Red Balls 3, and Total options 6. This is the simplest example in which the probability of the event is p (a) \u003d 3/6 \u003d 0.5.
B - the loss of an even number. In total even numbers 3 (2,4,6), and the total number of possible numeric variants is 6. The probability of this event is p (b) \u003d 3/6 \u003d 0.5.
C is a loss of a number greater than 2. Total options 4 (3,4,5,6) from the total amount of possible outcomes 6. The probability of an event with equal to P (C) \u003d 4/6 \u003d 0.67.

As can be seen from the calculations, the event C has a greater probability, since the number of probable positive outcomes is higher than in A and V.

Invalid events

Such events cannot simultaneously appear in the same experience. Like in №1 It is impossible to simultaneously reach the blue and red ball. That is, you can get either blue or red ball. In the same way in the playing bone, an even and odd number can be at the same time.

The probability of two events is considered as the probability of their sum or work. The amount of such events A + B is considered to be such an event that consists in the emergence of an event A or B, and the work of them aw is in the appearance of both. For example, the appearance of two sixes immediately on the edges of two cubes in one throw.

The sum of several events is an event involving the emergence of at least one of them. The work of several events is the joint appearance of them all.

In the theory of probability, as a rule, the use of the Union "and" denotes the amount, the union "or" - multiplication. Formulas with examples will help to understand the logic of addition and multiplication in the theory of probability.

The probability of incomplete events

If the probability of inconsistent events is considered, the probability of the amount of events is equal to the addition of their probability:

P (a + c) \u003d p (a) + p (c)

For example: I calculate the likelihood that in the PC. No. 1 With blue and red balls, the number of 1 and 4. Calculate not in one action, but the sum of the probabilities of the elementary components. So, in this experience only 6 balls or 6 of all possible outcomes. The numbers that satisfy the condition - 2 and 3. The likelihood of figure 2 is 1/6, the probability of the figure 3 is also 1/6. The probability that the digit will fall out between 1 and 4 are:

The probability of incompatible events of the complete group is equal to 1.

So, if in the experiment with a cube, lay the probabilities of the fallout of all numbers, then as a result we obtain a unit.

It is also true for opposite events, for example, experience with a coin, where one side is an event A, and the other is the opposite event ā, as is known,

P (a) + p (ā) \u003d 1

The probability of the work of non-prominent events

Multiplication of probabilities apply when they consider the emergence of two or more incomplete events in one observation. The probability that events A and B will appear simultaneously, equal to the product of their probabilities, or:

P (A * B) \u003d P (a) * P (B)

For example, the likelihood that in the isp. №1 As a result of two attempts, a blue ball will appear twice, equal to

That is, the probability of an occurrence of an event, when, as a result of two attempts with the removal of the balls, only blue balls will be extracted, equal to 25%. It is very easy to do practical experiments of this task and see if it really is.

Joint events

Events are considered jointly when the appearance of one of them may coincide with the emergence of another. Despite the fact that they are joint, the likelihood of independent events is considered. For example, throwing two playing bones can give a result when the number 6 falls on both of them. Although the events coincided and appeared simultaneously, they are independent of each other - only one six, the second bone does not have an influence on it.

The probability of joint events is considered as the probability of their sum.

The probability of the sum of joint events. Example

The probability of the amount of events A and B, which in relation to each other joints, equals the sum of the probability of the event with a deduction of the probability of their work (that is, their joint implementation):

P joint. (A + c) \u003d p (a) + P (B) - P (AV)

Suppose that the likelihood of getting into the target with one shot is 0.4. Then the event A - hitting the target in the first attempt, in - in the second. These events are joint, since it is possible that the target can be hit and from the first and from the second shot. But events are not dependent. What is the probability of an occurrence of a target defeat from two shots (at least one)? According to the formula:

0,4+0,4-0,4*0,4=0,64

The answer to the question is as follows: "The probability of getting into a goal from two shots is 64%."

This event probability formula can also be applicable to incomplete events, where the probability of the appearance of the event p (AV) \u003d 0. This means that the probability of incomplete events can be considered a special case of the proposed formula.

Probability geometry for clarity

Interestingly, the probability of the amount of joint events can be represented as two regions A and B, which intersect together. As can be seen from the picture, the area of \u200b\u200btheir association is equal to the total area per minute of their intersection areas. This geometric explanation makes more understandable illogical at first glance formula. Note that geometric solutions are not uncommon in the theory of probability.

Determination of the probability of the sum of the set (more than two) joint events is quite cumbersome. To calculate it, you need to use the formulas that are provided for these cases.

Dependent events

The dependent events are called if the offensive of one (a) of them affects the likelihood of another (B). Moreover, the influence of both the events A and its faults is taken into account. Although events are called dependent on the definition, but only one of them (B) is dependent. The usual probability was designated as P (B) or the likelihood of independent events. In the case of dependent, a new concept is introduced - the conditional probability P A (B), which is the probability of the dependent event in provided that the event A (hypothesis) occurred from which it depends.

But after all, an event is also by chance, so it also has a chance that you need and can be taken into account in the calculated calculations. Next, the example will be shown how to work with dependent events and hypothesis.

An example of calculating the probability of dependent events

A good example for calculating dependent events can be a standard deck of cards.

On the example of a deck in 36 cards, consider dependent events. It is necessary to determine the likelihood that the second card extracted from the deck will be a tambourine, if the first extracted:

Bubnovy.
Another suit.

It is obvious that the probability of the second event is depends on the first A. So, if the first option is true that the deck has become 1 card (35) and 1 tambourine (8) less, the probability of an event in:

P A (B) \u003d 8/35 \u003d 0.23

If the second option is fair, the deck has become 35 cards, and the total number of tambourine (9) is still preserved, then the likelihood of the next event in:

P A (B) \u003d 9/35 \u003d 0.26.

It can be seen that if the event is agreed in the fact that the first card is a tambourine, then the probability of an event in decreases, and vice versa.

Multiplying dependent events

Guided by the previous chapter, we accept the first event (a) as a fact, but if we say in essence, it has a random character. The probability of this event, namely the extraction of the tambourine from the deck of cards, is equal to:

P (a) \u003d 9/36 \u003d 1/4

Since the theory does not exist in itself, but is designed to serve for practical purposes, it is right to note that the likelihood of a product of dependent events is most often needed.

According to the theorem on the product of the probabilities of dependent events, the probability of the appearance of jointly dependent events A and B is equal to the likelihood of one event A, multiplied by the conditional probability of an event in (dependent A):

P (AB) \u003d P (a) * P A (B)

Then in the example with a deck, the probability of extracting two cards with a mahi of the tambourine is:

9/36 * 8/35 \u003d 0.0571, or 5.7%

And the probability of extracting is not a tambourine first, and then the tambourines are equal to:

27/36 * 9/35 \u003d 0.19, or 19%

It can be seen that the probability of the appearance of an event in more, provided that the first extraction card is extracted from the tambourine. This result is quite logical and understandable.

Full probability of event

When the problem with conditional probabilities becomes multifaceted, it is impossible to calculate the usual methods. When the hypotheses are more than two, namely a1, a2, ..., and n, .. Cooling a complete group of events provided:

P (A i)\u003e 0, i \u003d 1,2, ...
A I ∩ A J \u003d Ø, I ≠ J.
Σ k a k \u003d Ω.

So, the formula for the full probability for the event in the complete group of random events A1, A2, ..., and n is:

A look into the future

The probability of a random event is extremely necessary in many areas of science: econometric, statistics, physics, etc. As some processes cannot be determined, as they themselves have probabilistic nature, special methods of work are needed. The theory of the probability of an event can be used in any technological sphere as a way to determine the possibility of an error or malfunction.

It can be said that, learning the likelihood, we are doing theoretical step into the future in some way, looking at it through the prism of the formula.

The pace of demographic growth among European "farmers" and American hunters were the same.

It is believed that the cause of significant demographic growth, which happened about 10-12 thousand years ago, was the Neolithic Revolution - the transition from the assigning farm (hunting and gathering) to producing (farming and cattle breeding). The transition to agriculture, as most scientists believed, led to the emergence of the first cities and civilizations.

(Photo Hannahargyle / Room The Agency / Corbis.)

Neolithic grainwork. (Photo: José-Manuel Benito / CC BY-SA 2.5 / Wikimedia Commons / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File :Molino_neol%C3%ADTICO_DE_VAIV%C3%A9N.jpg.)

However, the results of researchers from the Harvard Smithsonian Center of Astrophysics and Wyoming University, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , this theory does not fit. Robert Kelly ( Robert Kelly), Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wyomingo, and his colleagues performed radio carbon dating of coals from the foci, left by Hunters-collectors in ancient settlements in the territories of Wyoming and Colorado. The age of residues is from 13 to 6 thousand years. Statistical analysis of the number of hunter-gatherers showed that for many years the local population grew at a rate of about 0.041% per year. But exactly at the same speed also increased the number of the first farmers of Eurasia.

That is, according to Robert Kelly, "societies that have passed to the producing farm grew in the same pace as the modern society with the assignment economy." It notes that similar growth rate of the population (about 0.04%) was recorded in different geographical and climatic conditions, and such it remained until the end of the XVIII century. And only in the past 200 years, the increase in the population of the Earth averages 1%.

From here, we can conclude that, as the authors of the work say, "the appearance of agriculture cannot be directly connected with the long-term growth of the population." In their opinion, the population was influenced by factors with global character, climatic or biological (epidemics, illness). Specific conditions - whether it is the local environment or type of activity of people - direct influence on demographic growth did not provide. At the same time, they do not exclude that the growth rate of the population in some regions could experience short-term oscillations.

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