The terrorist attack at the Ariana Grande Concert in Manchester in the life of at least 22 people. There are children among the dead.
Responsibility for the explosion took over the terrorist group "Islamic state", and in accounts that are associated with it, it is said that this is "just the beginning."
The goal of the IG is the construction of the World Caliphate. Even if it turns out to be cleaned from the militants Iraq and Syria (according to optimistic forecasts, their forces will be finally broken down until the end of 2017), only their terrorist quasi-state state will stop the existence, but not an idea that inspires suicide bumps to commit terrorist attacks around the world.
"Secret" tells about the evolution of the most powerful terrorist organization in world history.
How is the "Islamic state"
In 2014, Iraqi Theologian and Islamed Abu Bakre Al-Bagdadi, also known as Abu Dua or Khalif Ibrahim, announced the creation of the Islamic State. Little is still known about the personality of this person: it was said that even his militants he gives orders from under the mask.
It is believed that al-Bagdadi about 45 years old, he is a native of the Iraqi city of Samarra and, allegedly, was a clergy in a mosque, when American troops were included in Iraq (however, some researchers assure that this "propaganda"). Then he was kept in custody in the American camp of the book as an accomplice of terrorists. After going to liberty, he began to actively participate in the activities of Al-Qaida in Iraq.
At the beginning of this year, reports appeared about the serious injury of the ideology of the IG. Now he is in Mosul, or in the deserts not far from Jordanian borders.
The state with a population of 1-2 million people, which Al-Baghdadi began to build on the captured territories of Iraq and Syria, is divided into Wilayats (provinces) and Kavatati (city and settlements) and lives according to the laws of Sharia.
When the IG captures a new city, the authors of the book "Islamic state" are written by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, the first object that begins to function, becomes the "Hadad Square". It leads to punishment: crucify, behead, sect and cut off their hands. But in the IG there are also ordinary municipal services, media work (for example, AMAQ Agency, who reported the involvement of IG to the terrorist attack in Manchester, or the famous Dabiqu magazine), "Citizens" pay taxes.
In 2014, CNN appreciated the annual budget of the IG of $ 2 billion. But the main source of its replenishment is the sale of oil - curses. In 2015, terrorists could earn $ 500 million, in 2016 - $ 260 million.
What the IG is trying
Abu Bakr Al-Bagdadi created an IG to establish the "kingdom of Allah on Earth." First, militants want to create a powerful combination of Islamists, which can oppose secular states, and then establish the World Caliphate, which will live according to the laws of Sharia.
First of all, the militants promised to deal with all the "opponents of Islam" and "USDERS", in 2015 they threatened to destroy Israel and seize the Gaza Strip: "We are rooted by Israel. You (Hamas. - approx. "Secret"), Fatah and all these supporters of a secular state - nothing, so our impending rows will be shifted, "said in one of the video switches of militants. Although Hamas and Fatah are also Islamist groupings, IGA threatened them with violence for insufficient commitment to Sharia: "Eight years they manage the Gaza Strip - and not a single fanta of Allah could not be implemented."
Since then, militants have not been able to start a war with Israel. In 2016, in the Al-Naba newspaper, which Music publishes, it was explained that he would first have to establish power in Iraq and Syria, then to end with "godless governments" inside the Muslim world.
"Islamic State" is not just a collection of psychopaths, "American journalist Graham Wood in the Atlantic warned in 2015. - This is a religious group with his skillfully selected doctrine, not the last place in which the faith occupies in what the fighters of the IG bring the upcoming end of the world. "
According to Islamic eschatology, after the end of the world, Allah will call all believers to themselves, but before this, the last battle between Muslims and Romans should occur (so Islamic theologians call Christians) in the Syrian city of Dabiik.
What territory controls the game
The main conquest of the IG fell for 2014. In January, the militants broke the Iraqi army in the city of El Fallucza, in June, seized one of the largest cities of Iraq Mosul. Then the terrorists began an offensive to Baghdad, in passing the infrastructure, destroying the monuments of the architecture and execution of local residents, journalists and other incorrect. The state appeared economics - revenues were formed at the expense of oil and antiquities. By September, the IG captured the large territory in Iraq and Syria, the Vox edition compared it with the size of Belgium. In addition to Mosul, the militants held El-Kim, Syrian Rakka and reached Aleppo, that is, to the border of Syria and Turkey. According to the BBC, 40% of Iraq's territory was controlled at the peak of IRA, about 10 million civilians were in the occupation.
In 2015, the United States began massive bombings of the IG positions, the Russian air forces were connected, the local detachments of resistance were activated. For the first half of 2015, the self-proclaimed state lost 9.4% of previously conquered territories in Iraq. True, losing influence on the same area, the IG often compensates for it, exciting new cities. So, in May 2015, the ancient city of Palmyra was taken, in August, militants who pay special attention to propaganda and work with mass communication channels published a video of the explosion of the ancient temple Palmyra. This video caused horror in the Western world. Palmyra was soon released the American and Russian military, the Symphony Orchestra was played on the ruins of the temple under the control of Valery Gergiev, but in 2016 the militants again wanted this land.
In January 2016, IG controlled more than 70,000 square meters. KM in Iraq and Syria, by the end of the year the militants lost 14% of the conquests and remained from 60,400 square meters. km. According to IHS Conflict Monitor, about 6 million civilians remained in occupation by October 2016. In April 2017, the Iraqi government stated that the terrorist organization now controls no more than 7% of the country's territory - less than 30,000 square meters. km. In Syria, the troops of ISIL also suffer defeats.
Who is opposed to ig, and who - helps
The conflict in Syria and Iraq is the war against everyone, and the "Islamic state" is fighting immediately on several fronts. Its main opponents - the international coalition of 68 states led by the United States, Iraqi government army, the Syrian Army of President Bashar Assad and Russia (which speaks on his side in the civil war in this country since 2011).
In April 2013, the city entered the civil war in Syria, but not on the side of the opponents of Assad, but as an independent force. At the end of the same year, terrorists took part in the rebellion of the Sunnis against the Shiite government in Baghdad and began to control the Iraqi province of the Zabar. The IG quickly captured the territories of these countries, and Iraq even called what is happening to the Third World War, meaning the coming construction of the World Caliphate. In the summer of 2014, concerned about such activity in the summer of 2014 to Iraq for the first instructors to help the military. In September, the Americans gathered an international anti-terrorism coalition for the fight against IG, which became the largest association of this kind in history - today it includes 68 countries.
According to the US State Department, by March 2017, the coalition spent more than $ 22 billion on hostilities and will spend another $ 2 billion in 2017. The most active participants are Germany, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Australia, Turkey. They sent 9,000 servicemen to Syria and Iraq, donated 8200 tons of military equipment and caused more than 19,000 air strikes.
The United States play a key role in the coalition: 4850 American military, in Kuwait - 2500 in Iraq, are struggling.
Iraq sent to the fight against IG 300,000 military and as many police officers, Iraqi Kurdistan (Kurdish state education as part of Iraq) - 200,000, Iran - 40,000. About 250,000 soldiers are fighting at the Syrian army.
In the fall of 2015, Russia joined the war with the "Islamic state". Then the representative of Moscow in the UN Vitaly Churkin said that we would not join the allies due to the fact that the coalition bombed Syria without the consent of the local government and without the permission of UN Security Council. How many Russians fight in Syria, was officially not said, but it is believed that there are no less than several thousand people there.
Officially, nobody recognizes the world in the world and especially does not have a terrorist group support. But in financial assistance to terrorists suspect many: Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and even Israel. The New York Times newspaper published even the names of individual patrons. For example, journalists are suspected of amendment of the IG of Kuwaiti entrepreneur Ganima Al-Metyi.
In October 2016, the documents from the hacked mailbox Hillary Clinton confirmed that even some US allies could help: "We must put pressure on the Government of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who illegally support ISIL and other radical suntes in the region," said correspondence.
Most of the Syrian oil and gas fields are in the hands of ISIL, and Turkey and Jordan are considered the main buyers of illegal oil. The United States and Europe accused of the same Russian ally of Assad.
Chronicle of terrorist attacks IG.
Since June 2014, ur supporters have committed about 150 terrorist attacks in three dozen countries that have taken their lives at least 2000 people. This is not counting the killings of civilians in Iraq and Syria, public executions of military personnel, journalists, employees of humanitarian organizations.
Outside Iraq and Syria, the first attacks associated with the game were occurred back in 2014. In 2015, mass attacks began. On January 7, two terrorists broke into the office of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris and shot 12 employees of the editorial board. The attack could be associated with the publication of the caricature on the leader of the "Islamic state". In November, the target of militants again became Paris. This time, terrorists organized six attacks in different parts of the city. 132 dead. There was no such thing in Western Europe.
In 2016, several large-scale terrorist attacks occurred. In March, two suicides blew themselves at Brussels airport. 14 people died. Another explosion thundered in the subway, one and a half hours. 21 killed. In June 45 people became victims of Attack to Istanbul Airport. First, the militants shot people, and then led the explosive device. In July, the truck, behind the wheel of which was a terrorist, drove into the crowd of people on the embankment in Nice. 86 deaths.
On October 13, 2015, the IG announced Jihad of Russia, and on October 31 of the same year, on board the aircraft of Kogalymavia, which flew out of the Egyptian Sharm-Ash Sheikh, a bomb exploded. Died 217 passengers and seven crew members.
The offensive of the Syrian army is underway, despite the peace negotiations, the threats of the Turkish military invasion and intervention of the American-Saudi coalition. By completing the task of cutting the "green" corridor in the north of Aleppo, according to which the transit of militants, weapons and ammunition from Turkey, Assad's strength rest, retrofit and prepare a new operation.
The Russian-Syrian coalition has already taught to unexpected rapier strikes: experienced brigades, military-cosmic forces (VKS) of the Russian Federation are concentrated on a small segment of the clash line (VKS), then the enemy defense is poured into a short period of time, which leads to the collapse of significant sections of the front.
Thus, several operations were consistently conducted: in Rayna, Kuuoris airbase, in North Latakia, in the southern province of Derja, and, finally, in the north of Aleppo. Where to hit the army with a trace - a big mystery, especially since the course of peace negotiations, initiated by Russia, can enter the plans of military major adjustments.
Kurdish factor
The local operation in the north of Aleppo is almost completed. For one week, Assad's army, with the support of a variety of militia, cut off an enclave of militants from the border with Turkey, hitting towards the Shiite Anclav with the cities of Nubol and Zahra, who was surrounded by more than four years. The punched corridor was expanded and reinforced, and further offensive to the north rearmed by the "Afrinsky" Kurds, named so on the capital of the North-West Kurdish enclave. The efforts of the operation speaks of good preparation and coordination with Russian military advisers.
The offensive of the Syrian army in the north of Aleppo 01-08. Light Brown - Assad Army and Allies, Green - Rebellious and Terrorist Groupings, Yellow - Kurds, Dark Brown - Islamic State
The active connection of the "African" Kurds is a political decision. In fact, it is they eliminate the enclave of protuurship militants, pressing terrorists to the Turkish border. The main goal is the major city of Azaz, one of the transshipment bases for pumping Syria terrorism. However, this appendix is \u200b\u200balready cut off the army from the south, and the Islamic state (IG, the organization prohibited in Russia) from the east, so its value in terms of logistics is zero.
Kurds, in turn, form a buffer between the Syrian Arab Army (CAA) of Bashar Assad and Turks, which, on the one hand, is nervous to Ankara, and on the other - connects the hands of Erdogan's haastles. It is one thing to attack the soldiers of Damascus, the other is the formal allies of the United States.
The alignment of the opposing forces in the north of Syria on February 16, 2016. Light Brown - Assad Army and Allies, Green - Rebellious and Terrorist Groupings, Yellow - Kurds, Dark Brown - Islamic State
The decision of the Russian-Syrian coalition to miss forward Kurdish detachments reduces the risks of direct Turkish intervention, but leaves opportunities for a dirty hybrid war. We are observing: shelling of the Syrian territory, the invasion of small detachments of Turkish special forces, finally discharge the decor with refugees on the border. For several days under the fire of artillery there are Kurdish troops of the People's Self-Defense YPG. Punches in the area of \u200b\u200bthe city of Azaz are caused by 155-mm self-propelled artillery installations of Firtina, located in the Turkish province of Kilis.
The aggravation of the conflict should be expected after the Kurds will occupy AZAZ and come closer to the Turkish territory, where numerous "humanitarian" camps are located. It should also be understood that the Kurdish troops will not stand for an either a dense strike of the enemy - this is basically easy infantry, the pace of the offensive of which provides artillery and special divisions of the Syrian army and strikes of Russian VKS. But such a confrontation will cost Erdogan serious international pressure - since today, the Western media suddenly critically evaluate the aggression of Ankara, and Washington calls to stop shocks along the Syrian territory.
How to take Aleppo
I cut off from the Turkish supply of militants to Aleppo (only 45 kilometers to the border), the Syrian army will be able to focus on the city itself, which since 2012 is divided about equally between the government and grouping conglomerate. In the eastern quarters of the city, "An-Nusra", "Islamic Front", "Ansar Ad-Dean", "Imarat Caucasus in Shame", as well as minor detachments of the "Free Syrian Army" were settled in Russia. So the concerns of a number of experts that the peaceful initiative of Russia, implying the cessation of fire with coordinated opposition groupings, will stop the activity of Damascus in this direction, groundless. In Aleppo, there is enough terrorists who will not be able to smear the "moderation" with all western victims. But the frontal attack on the city of Assad will not be taken.
Aleppo is the largest city in the Middle East. In the times of the Ottoman Empire, he inferior in terms of population only Istanbul and Cairo. As of 2011, about three million people lived here, today there is a little less than a third, that is, hundreds of thousands of peaceful Syrians who have a miserable existence. In general, the city is already in the power of the humanitarian crisis, and any blockade or activation of hostilities will lead to a social catastrophe. Western humanists are shouting about it, not offering, however, another, non-relative solution to the problem.
At the same time, Aleppo is an extremely dense urban building, complicated by tunnels, superstructures, transitions, centuries-old urbanization layers. Among other things, there are many industrial facilities in the city: the lion's share of the Syrian industry was concentrated here and half workers were employed. Obviously, to turn a huge metropolis in the second "Stalingrad" Assad does not intend, as well as send soldiers at the assault of fortified quarters.
Rather, it is worth expecting a multi-capacity surgery for the liberation of the city, which will include the territorial blockade, blackmail and logistics and certainly negotiations both with militants and local residents. Recently, a dialogue between the army and the population of the occupied territories is very successfully held in Syria. There are already precedents when residents are asking for a "moderate" opposition to leave the settlement in order not to expose it. Perhaps in certain quarters of Aleppo, it will be possible to apply the same approach.
Water and electricity
According to some reports, the Syrian army is already ready to start an offensive in the north-west of Aleppo to clean the important area of \u200b\u200bLairamun and slam down the boiler lid for jihadists in the city and surrounding villages. In addition, they can support the blockade of the megalpolis in other parts of the country. For example, in the east of Aleppo, where, over the past six months, Assad's strength created a powerful enclave based on the Kuuoris airbag.
Signaling of the opposing forces in the north and east of Aleppo, September 2015 February 2016. Red - Assad Army and Allies, green - rebellious and terrorist groups, orange - Kurds, black - Islamic state
In the east of Aleppo, for the second month, a large "pocket" is closed for the second month, in which several thousand militants are still held. But the main thing is where the thermal power station is located here, which feeds the whole of the country and all Aleppo most of the north of the country. Until now, it was managed by the Council of Local Residents, formally located on the territory of "black". In her serviceability, everything is interested in the population, and terrorists, and "moderate" militants, and the army. Therefore, Assad's forces were not solved to attack the object, among other things, fearing that he was mined. However, on Tuesday, Damascus decided to step, perhaps, making sure that the equipment of the TPP is in an inoperable condition: in some photos of Islamists are visible destroyed boilers and turbines, looted equipment. It has long been lit. fuel storage. Naturally, it is impossible to predict the time limits for the restoration of the TPP operation at least in limited mode, but control over this important object will allow pressure on the downtown of the city.
Related purposes may have a sudden attack of the Assad army in the center of the country. For the first time in a year and a half, government forces entered the territory of the province of Rakka and are moving towards the Military Tabka airfield. Several villages are released and the Salamia-Rakka highway is blocked. The operation is carried out by the 555th Brigade of the 4th Mechanized SAA division in cooperation with the national defense forces, the brigade "Hawks of the Desert", the Golan Regiment and the Palestinian Volunteer Brigade Al-Kuds. However, this pedestrian grouping has no more than 1,000 soldiers in the composition, so it is impossible to call the operation of a large at the moment, and even more so it is difficult to predict the seriousness of ambitions on the offensive to the very capital of the city of the city of Rakka. Especially since the forces of Assad have to stretch communication than in the deserted terrain, the volatile squads of jihadists, quick attacks of the supply lines, have been used in the desert terrain.
Most likely, we are talking about the tactical maneuver, which is designed to catch the calipheat by surprise (it succeeded) and pull out the considerable consideration forces from the north (where the ig does not expand the territory controlled, despite the fierce disassembly of the Kurds, protuurs and SAA). But in the future, army parts and militia are capable of moving and freeing the Military Base of the Tabka, which the militants captured in August 2014. Currently, government forces are 25 km away from it.
If in the tab of government forces will be able to create a bridgehead (as in the fall in Kuwaris), further tasks can become much more ambitious. First, this is an offensive on the Topot of the Khaliphat city of Rakku, which in the established situation can try on the role of "Berlin in the 45th". Plans for the seizure of the capital IHIL carries out Washington, such a goal accesses the statements of Turkish and Saudi leaders. When taking the Rakka under your control, Damascus will not just get ahead of competitors, but will cause them a political defeat, having deprived a major goal for intervention in Syria and confirming the reputation of a fighter with the "real" terrorists. The goal of Damascus can become an earth dam and a support station "Tabka" in Euphrates, which is above the flow of Rakki, as well as a huge reservoir of El Assad, which, together with the HPP, was established in 1973 with specialists from the USSR. A huge amount of water is necessary for watering the main local agricultural culture - cotton, well, much more importantly, El Assad supplies drinking water Aleppo. For Damascus, this is an important strategic resource in the region. Here are the most important of the few Syrian oil fields.
Theoretically, the challenge area can begin the release of Dair-Ez Zora. The presence in the area will allow government troops to cut off the forces of ISIS in North and East Aleppo from Rakka and further Iraq, and a flight field is useful for air operations. All these circumstances at least make it easier for the life of Assad around Aleppo and will focus on rebellious quarters.
It should also be noted that today it is difficult to predict the course of large peace negotiations. But if you assume a hypothetical situation, when in the north and west of the country will be established by a truce, the liberated Assad troops will be able to use bridgeheads in the East for the offensive against the Islamic state: from Kuwearis towards El Baba, from the tabci - in the direction of Rakki, from Hama - aside Palmyra and Deir-Ez Zora. It should be noted that the caliphate is unlikely to organize stubborn resistance, especially in desert areas, where it is possible to cling only for intersection, strategic communications and small towns. Rakka, by and large, the only liquid asset of the Islamists, who lost which the warriors of the II will be forced to fly to Iraq, to \u200b\u200bthe basic bridgeheads, in the area of \u200b\u200bthe responsibility of the Americans. That in the future is the grand task of the Russian-Syrian coalition.
It is not surprising that such a reversal is not beneficial for American and Saudi-Turkish groupings. Neither by image circumstances nor tactical considerations - after all, it is precisely the strength of the West who must plunge the terrorist state, and in no way the Assad dictator. Taking control of the Damascus territory of its country will complicate the plans of any states by invasion, just pulling out a convenient pretext from the hands. This is an important argument for the breakdown of peace negotiations under any sauce, especially since Assad has already spoken quite hard in relation to the rules of the dialogue with the opposition, which do not imply significant concessions.
Latakia stripped
Complete the review of the success of the Syrian army and the militia recently, it is impossible, without mentioning the actual completion of the operation in Latakia. After at the end of January - early February, most of the northern province with rejunctions of Salma, GMAM, Rabiy, Atira, SAA, were rapidly released and began to methodically to uprind height height, selected to the last malight of the militants - the city of Kinsabb.
The army solved two tasks: a neat stripping of the provincial territories near the Turkish border and the extrusion of militants from the mountainous area with minimal risks of losses. As a result, the last heights around the Kinsabbe were taken, and they offer views of the northwestern regions of Idlib province. The general offensive is expected here in the coming weeks, the direction is the Large city of Jisr al-Shughur. According to some reports, Damascus plans to strike an Idlib with four sides, and, without giving the militants to come to his senses, regroup and get support from Turkey, clear the northwest of the country in the next six months. If politicians are not submitted.
Recall, only Russia and Iran are present in Syria at the invitation of official power. All other conflict participants can be considered, in essence, invaders that support separatist combat groups. So who and what does it seek while in Syria?
Deeclaration zones
1. Idlib (together with the northeast areas of Latakia, the West Aleppo and the North of Hama) - the zone of Turkish. According to some estimates, more than 20 thousand militants are operating there (including Nusra * and the Islamic state *). It is considered the most problematic area in the country.
2. Homs (North Province: Locations to Er-Raanta, Tel Bisa). There are about 4 thousand militants. And up to 200 thousand civilians.
3. Eastern Guta is a suburb of Damascus. Due to a number of irreconcilable groups (including Nusra), this site is considered one of the hottest in the country. In total, there are about 8 thousand terrorists in this territory. At the same time lives in Guta up to 500 thousand civilians. Yesterday, government troops began to conduct an operation on stripping the region.
4. DEEscallation zone in the south-west of Syria - the situation there is complicated by the situation on the Syrian-Israeli border. From 15 thousand militants difficult to fight, as they regularly underway from the side of the Golan heights occupied by an urgent. The fact is that Tel Aviv against the presence in these areas of Iranian soldiers and consultants.
Iran, in turn, the guarantor of the negotiation process in Astana. Iranian fighters and Hesbly soldiers are fighting in the hottest points. It is difficult to overestimate the contribution of Tehran in the victory in Aleppo or Deizer Ez-dawn. Their goal is to destroy radicals and extension of authority in the region, Shiite Corridor Syria-Iraq-Lebanon.
Russia and Iran.
Russian authorities have repeatedly explained: our main goal is to the uniqueness of terrorists "on distant approaches". It is no secret that thousands of radicals that joined the ranks forbidden in Russia and g are immigrants from the CIS countries.
Iran is also interested in victory over Islamic fundamentalism. The fact is that the religious component is implied in the Syrian conflict. The Syrian ruling elite is Alawita, and the Iranians are shiites. These are similar Muslim flows. They are opposed to another course in Islam - Sunnism. Sunnis is Saudi Arabia, Qatar - prone to the radicalization of Islam. Therefore, the militants forbidden in Russia and G is, just, the radical Sunnis, whom the Saudites and Qatar sponsors.
Turkey
Their goal is to protect against Kurds who dream of their state, including at the expense of the Turkish territory.
The Americans and their European Allies In addition to the war with terrorists, they are asked by the overthrow of the regime of the current president of Syria Bashar Assad. Experts call another embossing the purpose of the United States to entrenched in Syria to strengthen its influence on the region. US made a bet on Kurds. Thus, about $ 1.8 billion for training American allies in Syria stands out of the US defense budget for 2018. Thus, even after the defeat of the IG (and the Americans entered Syria is under this pretext), Washington will continue to be in Syria, as it is done for more than 10 years in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kurdi.
Kurds are based on their opposition to the Syrian authorities. Despite this, the armed Kurdish detachments are considered one of the most effective forces to combat terrorists. Having enlisted at a certain stage of the US support, they were able to apply a powerful blow to militants and entrenched in the oil-bearing areas of the country. What do Kurds achieve? Creating autonomy with broad rights, and in Idele - the creation of its own state.
Israel
Israel officially does not participate in the Syrian conflict. However, it would be naive about real neutrality. The rights of the neighboring state, Israel regularly interferes with the course of events. The situation began to be exacerbated when Iran and the Pyranian "Hezbollah" from Lebanon came to the rescue. Then in the Israeli Ministry of Defense directly stated that they would go for anything, but would not allow Tehran, who considers to be the "enemy number one" Israel (and on the contrary), entrenched near Israeli borders.
Saudi Arabia
After the defeated in Russia, the Major Forces of the militants focused on Nusra (she "Highatyman Ash-Sham" is a new name for the Syrian al-Qaida). Initially, it was the project of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But in the consequence of Saudi Arabia swallowed proto-sumps.
The main goal of Saudites is the overthrow of the current government in Syria.
TOTAL
What awaits us
"In a tough confrontation in the Middle East as Moscow and Washington understand the best of responsibility and try not to move a kind of line," Kirill Koktysh predicts Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory MGIMO. - precisely because it is afraid of possible consequences in the form of a "hot" global conflict. After all, any war begins when the parties have no complete information about each other. For example, on the eve of the First World German Command, the mobilization potential and the economic capabilities of Russia were incorrectly appreciated in a long conflict and eventually lost. And now, if it is possible, then not in the Middle East, and where the great powers in the face of Russia and the United States are not directly contacting, which is why the "measure of responsibility" participants in the potential conflict will be much lower. So, for example, it may be with the North and South Korea.
But there are other opinions, more disturbing.
- Many are disappointed with the actions of the United States in the region. Even those who do not feed the special love for Russia and the ruling regime of Assad, "says Elena Supotin, Advisor to the director of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies (RISI). - Americans are trying to monopolize everything that happens in the region, without offering peaceful initiatives. And it scares many participants in the confrontation.
Damascus (Syria), August 26th. Exactly two years is fulfilled by the Agreement on the placement of the aircorder of the Code of the Russian Federation at the aircraft industry Hmeymim. The arrival of the Russian aircorder in the Middle East helped the Syrian government forces to restore control over a significant part of the country's territory captured by radical groups. As a war map in Syria rapidly changed thanks to military assistance to the CCS of the Russian Federation - in the material Federal news agency (fan).
North Syria: Patchwork Blanket
By the time of the conclusion of the Agreement on the placement of the aircorder of the VKS in Syria, the situation of the situation in the country was a huge patchwork blanket. The Government of Syria controlled only a narrow lane in the West of the country, while the rest of the country passed under the control of militants.
The indicative example is the northern provinces of Syria: Latakia, Idlib, Aleppo and Hasaka. For four years of war, the province of Idlib turned out to be under the complete control of terrorists of all the masters - from the opposition "Free Syrian Army"to radical jihadists from "Jebhat An-Nusra" 1 (Terrorist organization, prohibited in the Russian Federation). The creation of a solid bridgehead of terrorists in Idlibus allowed illegal armed formations to conduct expansion into neighboring provinces - Latakia and Aleppo. In addition, a significant part of the province of Aleppo got under the control of terrorists "Islamic state" 1 (Grouping is prohibited in the Russian Federation).
The Syrian city of Aleppo became the epicenter of the confrontation of the Syrian army and terrorists. Fights in the city continued with variable successes, militants managed to close the Syrian army during dense street fighting. And the situation of Syrian Stalingrad, as often called Aleppo, was getting worse - until that moment until the CIA appeared in Syria. As a result of the operation "Dawn of Victory", the Syrian military with the support of the CCED RF, Russian military advisers and sappers managed to free Aleppo from the militants.
The liberation of Aleppo became a turning point for Syria. After the end of the operation, the Syrian government forces with the support of the Code of the Russian Federation began the offensive on the militants of the "Islamic state", which occupied the east and southeast of the province. As a result of the confident actions of Russian aviation - only in the last two months for the expulsion of IG 1 from Aleppo, the CCS of the Russian Federation intensified the departures, applying Over 5,000 airdraft infrastructure - the Syrian army was able to break through to the Euphrates River and release the entire province from the militants.
Central Syria: Wide Front against ISHIL
The main battles with the terrorists of the Islamic State of the Code of the Russian Federation were deployed in the central provinces of Syria - Hama and Homs. The liberation of the eastern parts of the two provinces was a vital target for Damascus: oil and gas fields are concentrated in the area, which terrorists were used to roll out and subsequent smuggling of petroleum products. In addition, terrorists could cut key tracks - in particular, a strategically important "way of life" Salamia - Itry - Hanasser - AleppoFed a precipitated city.
The main goal at the first stage of the liberation of Hama and Homs was the operation in Palmir. The ancient city, the pearl of the Syrian desert, Palmyra from 2015 was in the hands of terrorists of the game, who destroyed the ancient monuments and objects of historical significance. For the first time, Palmyra managed to release on March 28, 2016: thanks to the support of the CCED of the Russian Federation from the air, thanks to the work of Russian military advisers and the forces of special operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Syrian troops managed to take key heights and force the militants to pass the city.
However, the terrorists of the game still found strength for revenge: In December 2016: Mobile units, IG managed to capture Palmyra, as a result of which the Syrian army had to start all. Preparation for the new special operation continued month. According to the plan proposed by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Syrian army was supposed to be a wide front, with the highest expansion of the terrain. As a result, after three months of stubborn battles, on March 2, 2017, Palmyra returned again under the control of the Syrian government.
An important task for the Syrian government was the liberation of petroleum and gas fields Palmyra. Thanks to the support of the CCED of the Russian Federation, it was possible to establish control over the Hhayan gas processing complex, the Ash-Shair oil field, as well as the Jazzal and Makhrur deposits. In addition, the terrorists of the IG retreated from the city of Arak and the al-Hayle oil field adjacent to it.
Nevertheless, fighting for East Hama and Homs are still continuing. The main problem was Stregenyon IG in the village of Akerbat: here the terrorists concentrated the thousands of militant forces that continued the attacks on oil and gas fields. However, after massive blows of the CCED of the Russian Federation, the significant forces of terrorists left Aerbat, and the Syrian army with the support of Russian aircraft from the air cut off the area into two "boilers", the battles for which they continue to this day.
Damascus: End of Anklava
Support for the CCED of the Russian Federation in the fight against the IG in Eastern Hama and Homs, as well as resources liberated after the battle for Aleppo allowed Syria to make liberation from the militants of armed opposition around Damascus. For 2012-2013 Around the Syrian capital, a whole belt of opposition enclaves belonging to various groups was formed. It turned out to the fact that the shooters of militants were transferred to the government quarters of Damascus, and the leaders of the terrorists called on their supporters to storm the presidential palace. 
After the root fracture in the battle for Aleppo, the Syrian army was able to close the liberation of enclaves. For the period from December 2016 to May 2017, the entire Western part of the Guta Oasis, the Wadi Barad district, which provided Damascus drinking water, as well as the Al-Kabun and Barze districts in the east of the Syrian capital. In addition, a significantly lost in the size of an enclave of militants in Eastern Gute: the defeats of Islamists led to the fact that the Anklav agreed with the conditions of the truce, the militants joined the negotiations in Astana and supported the introduction of the de esshelation zone.
South Syria: borders on the castle
The southern provinces of Syria - Daria, Kunitra and Sunder - for a long time were partially under the control of opposition militants and Jebhat An-Nusra terrorists. Over the course of several years, Islamists managed to subjugate the territory near the Syrian-Jordanian border, as well as to take a demilitarized zone near the Golan heights occupied by Israel.
In addition, in the south of Syria, a significant part of the forces were operating, which were supported by the United States of America. Mercenaries "New Syrian Army", which were prepared in Jordan, prepared with the support of the United States and Great Britain to ahead of the Syrian government army and take the southern border of Syria, hastily go to the province of Deir Ez-Zor, occupied by the "Islamic state", and consolidate the country's key oil fields.
Nevertheless, the plans of the West were not destined to come true. The offensive of the Painrant Shiite detachments to the border with Iraq made it possible to cut off the pro-American militants from moving to Deir Ez Zoror. And soon, thanks to the consultations of Russia and the United States, it was possible to create the first zone of de-Syria in Syria - in three southern provinces.
Ahead - Deir Ez-Zor
According to the chief of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Sergey Rudsky By the beginning of the operation of the CTC of the Russian Federation in Syria, the official Damascus kept control over 12 thousand square meters. kilometers of the country. However, thanks to active military assistance from Russia, today Syrian troops control 74 thousand square kilometers, increasing the control boundary four times.
As the next day the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu.Thanks to the military victories and the process of peaceful settlement in Astana, actually managed to stop civil war in Syria. Only through the participation of the Russian Federation in the settlement of this conflict in the Middle East and the competent leadership of the Minister of Defense of Sergei Shoigu, it was possible to achieve such success. Now the Syrian army is engaged in stripping two of the "Islamic state" boilers in the eastern parts of Hama and Homs provinces. According to the Ministry of Defense, the restoration of control over these territories will create a convenient bridgehead for the onset of the last province controlled by terrorists - Deyar Ez-Zor. And naturally, the key role in this occurrence will certainly be played by Russia.
1 Organization is prohibited in the territory of the Russian Federation.
The main sponsors of the Middle East (and international) terrorism decided that the economic vectors of investments in the depths need to revise urgently. Investments, which is called, are not justified at the level, which was initially laid in the alleged result. And if in the first time everything was evolving for such investors just wonderful, now the problems signals, for example, this card.
The territories that are controlled by the so-called "temperate opposition" (in general, Al-Qaida (* is prohibited in the Russian Federation)), not just squeezed in the squares, but also broke up into individual links. The largest grouping of terrorists, the number of about 12 thousand people (this is the most modest calculations), is in the semiring - on the territory of the province of Idlib (al-Qaida's forces are adjacent to it in the western part of the province of Aleppo and in the north of Hama Province). Another major territorial "piece" - in the northern part of the mentioned province of Aleppo (Haleb).
Considering the fact that these groups strategically needed to hold together and have a way to, to put it mildly, sympathizing in Turkey, the problem of opponents of Damascus is viewed by the "unarmed eye". The problem is that there is a way out on Turkish sympathizers, but there is no connection to a single whole. Those streams of support that went with the Turkish territory to the so-called northern route to the chief "logistics center" - Aleppo, "sympathizing" has to be divided. Partially sent to Idliba (bypass), as the city of Aleppo - under the complete control of the Syrian government army, and between the group in the north of Aleppo and Idlib - also the Kurdish armed groups, miraculously retaining their positions after the Turkish operation "Euphrates Shield". Operation, as is known, declared as antiiigilovskaya.
By the way, the card itself only confirms the fact that the real struggle with ISIL (* Daesh, Daesh is prohibited in the Russian Federation) the Turkish operation was frankly small, but to trying to create a buffer zone for a junction with groupings operating in Syria - direct. The buffer seems to be really created - in it (on the border with Turkey in the northern regions of the province of Aleppo) and the recrepitudered of the Tribute, called the "armed opposition". That's just a problem for the Turkish forces sponsoring this garbage, is that to combine the taped grouping in the north of Aleppo with the main mass in Idlib in the current situation is unlikely to succeed. The chance was on the fake using the chemical asad. But today, it seems, even the Ivanka Trump began to torment vague doubts regarding invulnerable from the Zarina "White Katok" and the so-called Shama correspondents based in Istanbul.
Other directions are Israel and Jordan. The borders of these countries also somehow strange groupings, affiliated with Al-Qaida. Plus, Israel almost regularly shoots through the border on the positions of the SAR army, even if the projectile in the Israeli direction sends "Bomzhoyed" from "Ahrar Ash-Shama" or "Jebhat An-Nusra" (all this is prohibited in the Russian Federation). Is it prohibited in Jordan and Israel? - Question. Oh, yes ... there, "Assad should leave." And if he was going to help with the use of "Ahrarov", "Sham" and other crawling weeds, and then what would burn prohibitions, the Lord partners?
And in general, judging by the distribution card in Syria, the so-called armed (and there is "moderate") opposition prefers to fight for those territories that are adjacent to the borders of foreign countries. And why would suddenly Bashar Assad repeatedly accused of Israel mentioned, Turkey and Jordan in complicity to terrorism? Is there really the "bloody-zarinda tyrant asad" trying to bring the shadow on the woven of his coarse and most impellent neighbors?
By the way, in the Israeli, Turkish and Jordan media, materials were repeatedly appeared, in which it was stated that Russia "created a buffer" in the form of LDRs in the East Ukraine and supports those who fight the Kiev regime there. And, judging by the Syrian map, Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian media are familiar with the situation ... Experienced - what else can you say ...
On this background (Israeli) publish information on the application of the leader of the Al-Qaida terrorist group Ayman Az-Zawahiri. This most zavahiri actually makes it clear that terrorist cannon meat ceased to justify the hopes of sympathetic states and non-state structures imposed on it. The Al-Qaida leader announced that it was time to move the "partisan war against the Crusaders and their allies," adding that the "Allys of the Crusaders" is "Alawit and Shiites". This says Mr., the structure of which is led by which today at one time - on the expanses of Afghanistan - the American "Crusaders" gave rise to. Did they carry the cross or something else to Afghanistan - the question is more rhetorical, but the fact itself ...
Analyzing Az-Zawahiri statements, it is possible to conclude that a large-scale war with full clashes, which on the territory of Syria has passed all over the years, takes too many resources from sponsors, without leading those to the desired result. Billions are already spent, and the territory of the control of "Bomzhoyedov" continue to decline. Only from the beginning of 2017, the Syrian army released from terrorists, including the terrorists of ISIL, more than 4 thousand square kilometers of territory and hundreds of settlements.
According to "Investors" in the Syrian crisis, it's time to change tactics and move to the practice of a point terror - in the most vulnerable places - without a pronounced front. And then this tripmp with its savings: Kiev financing is going to cut, UN fundament - too. And if they really gather to sign up for the winners of ISHIL, then the same "al-Qaida" will again have to be touched up to explosions, shafts and other provocations, to which sponsors will not need too much money.
As a conclusion - thousands of "moderate" can understand the call of Zava rubi, so that it is time to shave the beard ... the master will give less - the number of scaled beard will become more. But it is unlikely that this in the near future will bring the long-awaited and full-fledged world to Syria. Not for that chaos generators have brewed all this porridge.
P.S.On the eve, the organization engaged in monitoring the information and disinfectual activity of terrorists on the Internet - Site - said that the responsibility for the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg took over the associated with Al-Qaeda (*) grouping. Suppose the terrorist Dzhalolov received instructions almost from the leader of Al-Qaida (*) Zavahiri.