Debt load rating of regions. State debts of the regions: Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk and Tatarstan are among the largest debtors

The number of Russian regions with a high level of debt burden has dropped to five, follows from the report of the NRA. The record for the size of debt in Russia was set by Mordovia

Photo: Alexey Filippov / RIA Novosti

The number of Russian regions in the so-called red zone (the excess of the state debt over the own revenues of the regional budget) has dropped from eight to five over the year, according to a study by the National Rating Agency (RBC has it). At the end of 2017, this list of the most heavily credited regions includes Mordovia, Khakassia, Kostroma Region, Karelia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Mordovia retains the status of the largest debtor. Over the past year, the region's debt problem not only did not come close to solving, but also became more complicated, according to the NRA study. If at the end of 2016 the republic's debt amounted to 176% of tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget, then as of January 1, 2018 it exceeded 200%, which is an absolute record for the regions of Russia.

In two other problem regions with high debt burden - Kostroma region (111.07%) and Khakassia (122.55%) - for the first time in modern history. This means that due to the large volume of accumulated debts, they will be able to spend money only under the control of the Federal Treasury. “In fact, this means the introduction of external management of the regional budget and public debt. In the coming year, this practice can be extended to other regions with a high public debt, ”the NRA notes.

The Finance Ministry's plans to use a special tool for regions whose debt will exceed the established parameters became known at the end of last year. Speaking in December in the State Duma that the regions, which have the total volume of debt obligations on budget loans granted since the beginning of the year, amounted to over 80% of their own budget revenues, will be transferred to treasury support.

Also, on January 1, a program was launched to restructure budget loans to regions. It will last seven years, during this period from the budget 55 billion rubles. In the first two years, the regions will need to pay off only 5% of their debt every year, which, according to the president, will allow the regions to “free” 438 billion rubles.

At the same time, in 2017, the number of regions in the “green zone” (government debt in the amount of less than 10% of the regional budget's own revenues) increased from nine to eleven. Now these include the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, the Vladimir Region, the Republic of Crimea, St. Petersburg, the Primorsky Territory, the Leningrad Region, the Altai Territory, Moscow, the Tyumen Region, as well as Sevastopol and the Sakhalin Region (in the latter two regions, there is no state debt at all).

Regions refuse to help banks

The total volume of public debt of Russian regions last year decreased slightly (by 1.6%) and amounted to 2.315 trillion rubles, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance. In the structure of the total public debt of the regions, as of January 1, 2018, budget loans accounted for 43.64% of the total. A year earlier, this figure was 42.09%, follows from the NRA study.

“The federal center continues the policy of providing the regions with cheap budget loans, but the volume of such financing is gradually decreasing and mainly weak regions can apply for it, while the strong have to look for alternative sources of debt financing,” the agency writes.

As for bank loans (almost 667 billion rubles as of January 1), their share in the structure of the state debt of the regions continues to decline (from 34.36 to 28.81% in 2017). The share of government debt securities, on the contrary, is growing (from 19.44 to 23.69%). According to the authors of the study, this trend indicates that issuing bonds rather than receiving bank loans is becoming a more attractive option for the regions.

“Debt securities of the regions of Russia are in demand among investors (most of the bonds of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are traded above par), and the current market conditions make their placement more profitable compared to attracting loans from commercial banks,” the report says.

At the end of 2017, 52 subjects have reduced their public debt, follows from the operational report of the Accounts Chamber on budget execution. The largest reduction in public debt was noted in the Chelyabinsk Region and Moscow - by 1.8 times, the Leningrad Region - by 1.6 times, Primorye - by 29.8%, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District - by 25%.

The growth of the public debt, according to the Accounting Chamber, was recorded in 31 subjects. Among the "distinguished" regions, auditors name St. Petersburg - 2.5 times, Kamchatka Krai - 37.9%, Mordovia - 24.3%, the Republic of Adygea - 21.7%, Tula region - 18.7 %.

At the same time, as the department notes, the regions remain dependent on financial assistance from the federal budget. “The incomes of eight suites as of January 1, 2018, more than 60% were formed at the expense of gratuitous receipts from other budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation,” reads the report. We are talking about Ingushetia, Chechnya, Tuva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Crimea, Karachay-Cherkessia and the Kaliningrad region.

The state debt of the Russian regions as of December 1, 2016 decreased compared to the beginning of the year by 110.2 billion rubles, or 4.8%. Izvestia was informed about this in the Accounts Chamber. At the same time, according to the joint venture, over the last month of the outgoing year, this figure may slightly increase, but the debts of the subjects will be less than a year ago.

One of the reasons is the ongoing process of replacing commercial loans with budget ones. However, the debt situation in the regions remains serious, President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference last Friday. Moreover, the debt is not homogeneous - for example, five subjects violate the Budget Code, the head of state focused his attention and promised that they would receive assistance. But it will rather be "first aid" - the problem must be solved by changing the interaction between the Ministry of Finance and the subjects with high debt.

The state helped

As Vladimir Putin noted at a press conference, the regions' debt is a serious issue. Indeed, the national debt of the subjects was steadily approaching 2.5 trillion rubles at the beginning of this year. However, as Izvestia was informed in the Accounts Chamber, as of December 1, 2016, the regions' debt fell by 110.2 billion rubles and amounted to 2.208 trillion rubles, which is almost 5% less than in January of the outgoing year. At the same time, however, an increase in the volume of debt obligations in January-November is noted in 34 regions.

The joint venture also notes the ongoing process of changing the structure of the public debt of the subjects. So, this year, the state again became their main creditor by replacing commercial loans with budgetary loans at a symbolic 1 percent. For these purposes, 340 billion rubles were allocated in the outgoing year. That is why the volume of debt on budget loans increased compared to the beginning of the year by 185.2 billion rubles, or 22.9%, and amounted to 993.9 billion rubles (the share is more than 45%). The debt to the budget grew in 56 regions.

At the same time, the share of commercial loans decreased, which in the structure of the state debt amounted to 30.8% as of December 1. Debts to credit institutions have decreased since the beginning of the year by 284.4 billion rubles (or 29.5%) and amounted to 681 billion rubles. However, the Accounts Chamber notes, “in a number of regions, the practice of borrowing does not have the proper consistency and predictability, which leads to the facts of irrational attraction of bank loans. So, in 17 regions there is an increase in commercial loan debt ”.

According to the Accounting Chamber, as of January 1, 2017, that is, in December, the state debt of the regions will increase slightly, but it is likely to be less compared to the indicator at the beginning of 2016.

The joint venture names the problem of imbalance in the budgets of the subjects as the main reason for the growth of the state debt of the regions. Thus, the revenues of most of them do not cover the costs of previously assumed expenditure commitments, which leads to an increase in the number of regions that form their budgets with a deficit and increase debt obligations.

The Accounts Chamber provides the following data supporting this statement: as of December 20, 2016, the execution of consolidated budget revenues amounted to 9.247 trillion rubles, or 97.1% of the foreseen volumes. Execution of expenses for the past period amounted to 8,975.2 billion rubles, or 85.4% of the stipulated volume.

As pointed out in the joint venture, in January-November 2016 the share of debt on budget loans increased by 10.1 percentage points and this growth had a positive effect on the quality of the aggregate debt portfolio of entities, reduced the burden of servicing debt obligations, but did not solve the problem of balancing regional budgets ...

“The practice of using budget loans as sources of covering the current deficit and replacing commercial loans does not eliminate the arising imbalance in the volume of actual income and budgetary commitments, and does not ensure the stabilization of the situation,” the Accounting Chamber notes.

Subject to subject strife

According to the updated credit ratings of the National Rating Agency (NRA) from 83 regions (the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, ratings were not assigned due to the lack of the necessary volume of statistical information), the ratings of 33 subjects were downgraded, 28 were raised and 22 more were confirmed.

The debt burden indicator is calculated as the ratio of the region's public debt as of October 1, 2016 to the regional budget's own revenues (tax and non-tax) for the past year (October 2015 - September 2016). In the Budget Code, the limit value of this indicator is fixed at 100%, that is, the volume of the region's public debt should not exceed the total annual volume of its own budget revenues. For highly subsidized regions (those are recognized as regions where the share of subsidies for at least two of the last three years is more than 40% of their own budget revenues), the limit value of this indicator is 50%, the analyst explained.

He noted that a "negative" outlook was assigned to regions that have a combination of three conditions: the public debt exceeds 100% of their own revenues, during nine months of 2016 this debt is increasing, and there are violations of budget legislation and (or) the terms of agreements on the provision budget loans. These regions include the Republics of Mordovia, Khakassia, Mari El, the Trans-Baikal Territory, as well as the Smolensk, Pskov and Kirov regions. As emphasized in the agency, the listed regions may lose access to new budgetary and commercial loans.

The Ministry of Finance can indeed cut off access to low-cost refinancing for violators of the Budget Code. However, according to Alexander Pakhalov, the state will support the regional authorities in terms of servicing their public debt, as well as provide assistance in exchange for stimulating the economy.

Indeed, at a press conference, Vladimir Putin noted that only five regions violated this principle (the ratio of debt to income is 50% - Izvestia) and they need special support, as well as they require special attention. He recalled that this year more than 300 billion rubles were spent on “refinancing these regions, taking their debts from commercial banks and refinancing them for government loans, loans from the Ministry of Finance, which are issued for a long term at one percent, at a symbolic interest per annum. ". This work will be continued further.

Next year, we will also provide the necessary resources for these purposes, - the president promised.

It is known that in 2017 the government planned 200 billion rubles for this assistance.

Targeted approach

In addition, as noted in the Accounts Chamber, in 2017, in order to improve the situation with the balanced budgets of the regions, subsidies are provided for equalizing the budgetary provision of the regions in the amount of 615 billion rubles (an increase of 100 billion rubles compared to 2016). In addition, a new principle has been established for the provision of subsidies on the basis of agreements concluded with the Ministry of Finance of Russia on the conditions for their provision.

The main intrigue is what will be the incentives for governors to sign these agreements, says a leading analyst at the NRA.

“When granting budget loans in 2017 and concluding relevant agreements, it is advisable to consider the possibility of using a differentiated approach, taking into account the current situation with the debt burden and their real ability to fulfill the terms of the agreements,” the Accounting Chamber believes.

And only after the situation stabilizes, it is possible to develop approaches to restructuring or deferring the debts of entities on previously issued budget loans with the extension of the terms of their repayment, providing for a gradual uniform repayment of the restructured debt while maintaining the amount of payment for the use of budget loans.

Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief analyst of the BCS FG, also believes that at this stage, the solution to the problem largely depends on government assistance. In his opinion, if now the governors begin to actively cut civil servants to reduce costs, this will lead to an increase in unemployment.

It is obvious that the problem with these regions cannot be solved in principle quickly, because everything depends not only on production. It is difficult for them to be attractive for investment or tourism due to certain reasons - remoteness, unfavorable climate or ecology, the analyst believes.

Therefore, he emphasizes, the Ministry of Finance can take a tough stance, reduce funding, but this will not solve the region's problems.

Andrei Piskunov, Senior Director, Head of the ACRA Sovereign and Regional Ratings Group, believes that under the current economic situation, standardized measures for all entities will be ineffective. Targeted approaches are required to resolve the problems of each specific region.

One of the promising solutions to the problem of regional debts could be an agreement on the partial refinancing of the region's existing liabilities for budget loans with a rigid fixation of the share of regional debt, which must be repaid at the expense of the region itself. This will stimulate the regional authorities to seek sources of debt repayment and introduce the practice of a responsible attitude to their debts and debt policy, - Andrey Piskunov summed up.

RIA Rating - 2 Mar According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation at the end of 2016 increased by 1.5% and as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.353 trillion rubles. This is the smallest increase in public debt over the past few years. For comparison, in 2015 the state debt of the regions of the Russian Federation increased by 11%, in 2014 - by 20%, in 2013 - by 28.6%. The decrease in the growth rate of regional borrowings can be explained by the more conservative approach of the regional authorities to increasing the debt burden on the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which is justified in the context of the continuing unstable economic situation. In addition, according to the estimates of the experts of the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the media group MIA "Russia Today", a certain impact on the overall result was a reduction of 78.6 billion rubles in Moscow's public debt, mainly due to the repayment of external debt. A year ago, Moscow was one of the leaders in terms of the absolute value of the volume of public debt among all Russian regions. At the beginning of 2017, the capital's public debt amounted to 61.9 billion rubles.

The volume of municipal public debt at the end of 2016 increased by 6.7% and amounted to 364.3 billion rubles. The total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the debt of municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as of January 1, 2017, amounted to 2.72 trillion rubles, which is 2.2% more than a year earlier.

A moderate increase in the state debt took place against the background of growth in budget revenues of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At the end of 2016, the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased by 9.6%, while the reduction was recorded only in seven regions. Against this background, the total expenditures of the budgets of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased by 5.6%.

More and more budget loans

In the structure of the regional public debt, an increasing share falls on budget loans. In 2016, the regions of the Russian Federation actively replaced commercial debt with cheap budget loans. Due to this, the share of budget loans in the total public debt as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 42.1%, and the share of commercial loans accounted for 34.9%. At the end of 2015, the ratio was diametrically opposite. The revitalization of the debt market led to an increase in regional borrowing, which could not but affect the growth of the share of government securities in the debt structure from 18.7% at the end of 2015 to 19.4% at the end of 2016. The share of government guarantees decreased from 4.4% to 3.8% in 2016. Information on the structure of the state debt of the regions is given in the table \u003e\u003e

In 14 regions, there is no debt to commercial banks at all. With the exception of Moscow, the Tyumen region and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra, budget loans are the main components of the public debt of these regions. Regions such as Moscow, Primorsky Territory and Kamchatka Territory have completely repaid their commercial debts over the past year. At the same time, in a number of regions in the structure of debt there is a significant bias towards commercial loans, which may cause concern, especially if the region's positions in the debt load rating are close to the bottom ten.

To determine the level of debt burden, the experts of the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the media group MIA "Russia Today" made a rating of the subjects of the Russian Federation by the level of debt burden, which reflects the picture of the distribution of regional debts and their dynamics in 2016. The rating used data from the Federal Treasury and the RF Ministry of Finance on debt obligations and revenues of regional budgets. The ratio of the state debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2017 to tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget (own revenues) for 2016 was used as a measure of the debt burden in the rating.

The debt burden on the budgets of the regions of the Russian Federation has decreased

The overall level of the regions' debt burden has decreased over the past year. The ratio of the total public debt of all regions as of January 1, 2017 to the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues for 2016 was 33.8%, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than a year earlier. But at the same time, the range of values \u200b\u200bin the regional context remains quite wide. The debt burden ranged from 0% in the Sakhalin Oblast and Sevastopol to 176% in the Republic of Mordovia. Compared to the results of the previous year, the leading and trailing regions of the rating have not changed.

The Republic of Mordovia has been at the bottom of the rating in terms of the debt burden of the regions of the Russian Federation for several years, but it should be noted that positive changes are observed here as well. At the end of 2016, the level of debt burden decreased by 6.5 percentage points, which is due to a 15.7% increase in the volume of tax and non-tax revenues of the region. The very same public debt of the Republic of Mordovia increased by 11.6% due to budget loans and a bonded loan in the amount of 5 billion rubles, placed in September 2016.

The number of regions whose national debt exceeds their own revenues has decreased

In addition to the Republic of Mordovia, in seven other Russian regions the volume of public debt exceeds the own budget revenues, but, in comparison with 2015, their number has almost halved. As of January 1, 2016, there were 14 such regions. In addition, there are positive trends in this part of the rating: in five out of eight regions, the debt burden decreased over the past year, and in all cases this was due to the outpacing growth of tax and non-tax revenues compared to increase in public debt.

Judging by the debt structure, not everyone in the last group of regions took advantage of the opportunity to replace more expensive commercial loans for lending by the RF Ministry of Finance. If in the structure of the debt of the Smolensk region and the Republic of Karelia budget loans occupy more than half, and their share in 2016 increased to 58.8% and 51.7%, respectively, then in a number of regions there are structural distortions towards commercial loans. So, in the Astrakhan region the share of commercial loans is 50.5%, in the Kostroma region - 52.6%, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 61%, the Republic of Mari El - 67.7%. In addition, in the Republic of Khakassia, almost half of the public debt (49.8%) falls on bonds and another 37.3% on commercial loans. The debt burden in Khakassia in 2016 increased by 28.7 percentage points and amounted to 145.5%. If the debt policy in the republic does not undergo any cardinal changes, then in the near future the Republic of Khakassia may displace the Republic of Mordovia from the position of the region closing the rating.

As of January 1, 2017, in 54 regions of the Russian Federation, the state debt exceeded 50% of the volume of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which in 36 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the state debt exceeds 70% of their own revenues. Compared to the previous year, the number of regions in this group decreased slightly - as of January 1, 2016, in 57 regions of the Russian Federation, the state debt exceeded 50% of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which the ratio of public debt to tax and non-tax revenues was more than 70% in 44 regions.

New regions emerged in the group of leaders

A low level of debt burden is still observed in nine Russian regions, but their composition has slightly changed compared to last year. Less than 10% of the volume of tax and non-tax revenues of budgets is the state debt in the Tyumen Region, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Altai Territory and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra. The places that left the leading group of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Crimea were taken by the Leningrad Region and the Primorsky Territory. There is no public debt in the Sakhalin Oblast and Sevastopol. Five regions in the group managed to reduce their debt burden. In the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra and the Tyumen region, the debt burden increased.

In most regions of the Russian Federation, the debt burden has decreased

In 2016, the level of debt burden decreased in 63 regions of the Russian Federation. Positive trends are mainly associated with an increase in tax and non-tax revenues, but in some regions there is also a decrease in the volume of public debt. The leader in positive dynamics was the Republic of Ingushetia, whose debt burden decreased by 36.8 percentage points both due to a decrease in public debt by 26% and due to an increase in its own revenues by 9.4%. In addition, the debt burden decreased by more than 20 percentage points in the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania, in the Vologda Oblast, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and in the Republic of Altai. In thirteen Russian regions, the debt burden decreased by 10-20%.

In 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the level of debt burden increased, of which six - by more than 10%. The Republic of Khakassia once again showed the most significant growth, increasing its debt burden by 28.7 percentage points. In addition to it, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug the debt burden increased by 25.2 percentage points and in the Astrakhan Region - by 24.1 percentage points.

Public debt increased in 49 regions of the Russian Federation

According to RIA Rating experts, in 2016 the absolute volume of public debt increased in 49 regions, remained unchanged in the Vladimir region, and decreased in 33 regions. There is still no public debt in Sevastopol and Sakhalin Oblast.

The leader in positive dynamics was Moscow, whose national debt, including due to the full repayment of commercial loans, decreased by 56%. In addition, the volume of public debt in the Leningrad Region and Kamchatka Territory decreased by more than 30%. The Republic of Crimea, where until recently there was almost no public debt, in 2016 increased the volume of public debt by 13 times. In the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the volume of public debt has grown 3 times, and in the Tyumen region - by 83%. But the ratio of public debt to tax and non-tax revenues in these regions is far from risky levels.

The Krasnodar Territory is still the leader in terms of the absolute value of public debt and over the past 2016 its volume increased by 3.3%, reaching 150 billion rubles. But due to the growth of tax and non-tax revenues by 15.4%, the level of the region's debt burden decreased by 10.3 percentage points, and amounted to 88.2% at the end of 2016. In three other regions - the Republic of Tatarstan, the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Moscow Region - the volume of public debt exceeds 90 billion rubles, but the situation with the debt burden on the regional budgets remains at an acceptable level.

Public debt growth rates will be low in 2017

Recently, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has increasingly heard calls for the regions to use bonded loans more actively, the servicing of which will cost the regions cheaper than loans from commercial banks, and it is also said that budget loans are rather a temporary, anti-crisis measure that cannot exist permanently. basis. As a confirmation of this, in the Federal budget for 2017, only 200 billion rubles were reserved for budget lending against 338 billion rubles issued in 2016, and, one can expect, their further reduction. In addition, budget loans were issued for a period of 3 years, and this year the deadline for the repayment of those loans received by the regions in 2014 in the amount of 230 billion rubles is coming. Even taking into account the fact that the amount of subsidies intended in 2017 for equalizing regional budgets has been increased by 100 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance's money will not be enough for everyone. At the expense of the budget reserve, at best, the current debt to the RF Ministry of Finance is refinanced. Probably, due to the stabilization of financial markets, one can expect a surge in regional activity in the debt market and an increase in the share of government securities in the regional debt structure. Speaking about the absolute volume of debt, it can be assumed that in the context of expected weak economic growth, the conservative policy of the regional authorities with regard to borrowing will continue, and the overall situation with regional debts will continue to improve.

According to the results of 2017, experts of the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" expect an increase in the volume of public debt by 5-7%, and tax and non-tax revenues of regional budgets within 10%. In this case, the debt burden will be 32-33%, and compared to the result of 2016, it will not change significantly.

RIA Rating is a universal media group rating agency MIA "Russia Today", specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation, the economic condition of companies, banks, sectors of the economy, countries. The main directions of the agency's activities are: creating ratings of regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, securities, and other economic objects; comprehensive economic research in the financial, corporate and public sectors.

Overview of the situation with the debt burden of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Realnoe Vremya studied the situation with the size of the state debt of the regions of Russia and found that Tatarstan is one of the most heavily credited subjects of the Federation. The maximum debt, however, belongs to the Krasnodar Territory, while the capital regions are trying to get rid of the debt. St. Petersburg, for example, has given up half of its national debt over the past year.

National debt began to slowly decrease

As shown by the research of Realnoe Vremya, the state debt of Russian regions on average begins to decrease - for the first time in 10 years. True, at a very insignificant pace. In particular, as of July 1, 2017, the volume of the state internal debt of all constituent entities of Russia is 2.23 trillion rubles, and compared to the same period last year, this amount has decreased by about 2% or by 50 billion rubles.

The bulk of the debt falls on budget loans from other budgets of the budgetary system of Russia. The regions have such debts - 48%, or about 1.06 trillion rubles. The second largest type of debt is loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations, there are just over a quarter of them (28%), in the amount of 619 billion rubles. Another 20% (453 billion rubles) falls on government securities. State guarantees account for 4% of regional debts, and other debts - about 0.3%.

Note, however, that if we compare the indicators not in July with the same month last year, but in January, then the national debt of the regions is growing. Moreover, the most significant jump was recorded in 2013. By the way, these figures include debts only directly to the regions; debts of municipalities are not included in them.

Olympiad price

The undisputed leader among the regions of Russia in terms of internal public debt is the Krasnodar Territory. Here the amount was 143.3 billion rubles, which is one and a half times more than that of the region in second place. This amount is approximately equally divided between budget loans from other budgets (60.2 billion rubles) and loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations (55.2 billion rubles). Another 22.6 billion rubles of the Kuban debt are government guarantees, and 5.3 billion rubles are government securities. The amount of debt is really huge - for comparison, all the regions of the Ural Federal District owe "only" 137.9 billion rubles. At the same time, the Krasnodar Territory is trying to reduce its debt, but more slowly than many other regions of Russia - over the year it decreased by only 2.9%. What can you say, the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot.

The second place, with an amount of just under 100 billion rubles, is occupied by the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Interestingly, the structure of the debt itself differs significantly from the structure of the “leader”. The bulk of it has been accumulated not on loans from other budgets, but on government securities - they account for 56 billion rubles. Loans from other budgets amount to only 39.6 billion rubles, and loans from organizations - an insignificant amount of 4.3 billion rubles. Note that the Krasnoyarsk Territory is one of the two regions in the top 5 in terms of the total amount of public debt, which, compared to last year, did not reduce, but increased this indicator by 5.5%. This region, by the way, is not spoiled by sports events, but Krasnoyarsk is preparing to host the Winter Universiade in 2019.

But Tatarstan closes the top three, the indicator of which is 93.5 billion rubles. The republic also has a rather remarkable breakdown: there are absolutely no debts on government securities and loans from organizations. Almost 85 billion rubles falls on budget loans (here Tatarstan is generally the undisputed leader), and 8.7 billion rubles - on state guarantees. Over the year, the state debt of Tatarstan decreased, but not very significantly - by 2.9%. Let us remind that recently Realnoe Vremya wrote that the Republic of Tatarstan claims the maximum period of restructuring of budgetary debts after the regions cannot attract new loans from the federal budget and has already managed to partially restructure the debts for the 2015 World Cup.

The Krasnodar Territory is trying to reduce its debt, but at a slower pace than many other regions of Russia - the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot. Photo ru.wikipedia.org

The fourth place and indicator, 1.4 billion rubles less than that of Tatarstan, belongs to the Moscow region. Here, the debts mainly fall on loans from organizations (47.8 billion rubles), government securities (25 billion rubles), budget loans (19.3 billion rubles). Over the year, the Moscow Region reduced its debt by 6.6%.

Another region from the Volga region closes the top five - the Samara region. The amount of the region's state internal debt is 75 billion rubles. It mainly consists of government securities (41 billion rubles), budget loans (22.6 billion rubles) and loans from organizations (11.4 billion rubles). The region has no debts under state guarantees at all. At the same time, it became the leader of the top 5 in terms of increasing the amount of debt over the year - here it grew by 10.7 billion rubles in total. (16.7%), mainly due to debt on government securities (an increase from 27.8 billion to 41 billion rubles).

Perhaps, one of the motives for the recent resignation of the regional governor Nikolai Merkushkin is connected with the indicator of the Samara region in terms of public debt. As of January 1, 2012 - the year when he headed the region - the national debt was 33.4 billion rubles. A year later, the figure increased to 36.8 billion, by 2015 it reached 53 billion, by 2016 - 62.6 billion, and now, we recall, it is 75 billion rubles. Thus, during the reign of Merkushkin, the state debt of the region increased by 2.3 times. However, it is certainly impossible to directly link Merkushkin's departure with the increase in the national debt - there are a lot of regions in Russia whose debt has grown higher over the past five years (for example, in the nearby Perm Territory - in general, almost 14 times).

Among the regions of the Volga region, the leaders in terms of the size of the state internal debt are also the Nizhny Novgorod region (73 billion rubles), Udmurtia and the Saratov region (51.5 billion and 50.4 billion rubles, respectively), as well as Mordovia with 44.6 billion rubles. For comparison, in a region comparable to Tatarstan - the Republic of Bashkortostan - the amount of internal public debt as of July 2017 is only 23.6 billion rubles - three times less than that of Tatarstan.

Let's note three more regions - the Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol and Sakhalin Oblast. The latter two have no public debt at all, while Crimea has only 200 million rubles, and all of them fall on budget loans.

Top 5 in terms of growth: depressed regions increase debt burden

Over the past year (from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017), the number of regions that reduced and increased their public debt turned out to be approximately equal. At the same time, five constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased their indicator by more than a quarter.

The undisputed leader here is the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the amount of the state debt of which has grown one and a half times - from 7.9 to 12.4 billion rubles. This growth is mainly due to an increase in loans from credit institutions - a year earlier the figure was 2.4 billion, but now it is equal to 9.7 billion rubles. But the main type of debt before - budget loans - here, on the contrary, decreased, from 5.1 to 2.3 billion rubles.

The second place in the growth of the state debt is occupied by the Tyumen region - about 40%. A year earlier, the national debt was 1.34 billion rubles, now it has grown to 1.87 billion rubles. This growth is entirely due to the increase in the size of state guarantees - from 1.02 billion to 1.55 billion rubles.

Almost the same growth in the national debt - by 39% - and the Jewish Autonomous Region. Over the year, it grew from 3.86 to 5.37 billion rubles. Here, both main types of debt of the region - loans from organizations and budget loans - have grown by about the same share.

The fourth place in terms of growth - by 38% - belongs to the Kurgan region. Here the amount increased from 11.7 billion to 16.2 billion rubles. As in the case of the Jewish Autonomous Region, loans from both organizations and other budgets of Russia increased.

The Tambov Region closes the top five, where the amount of debt increased by almost 28% - from 12.2 billion to 15.7 billion rubles. At the same time, the amount of loans from organizations in the region did not change, but the amount of budget loans increased (from 3.4 billion to 5.5 billion rubles), and government securities in the amount of 1.6 billion rubles were added.

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by types of debt obligations, thousand rubles (growth)

Top 5 for debt reduction: capitals get rid of loans

Among the regions that have reduced the size of their debts, five subjects of the federation can also be distinguished - their indicators have decreased by more than a third over the year. Almost all of these regions are rich and developed.

Most of all, the size of obligations decreased in St. Petersburg. Here, the amount of debt has almost halved - by 46%, from 14.7 billion to 7.9 billion rubles. The region has fully repaid debts on government securities (they amounted to 5.9 billion rubles), and also reduced the amount of debt on budget loans - from 8.9 to 7.9 billion rubles.

A similar situation is with the Leningrad Region - the amount of debt here decreased by 45%, from 9.5 billion to 5.2 billion rubles. Over the year, the region fully repaid debts to organizations in the amount of 4.1 billion rubles, and halved its liabilities on state guarantees (from 1.5 billion to 868 million). However, budget loans increased slightly (from 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion).

The third place in debt reduction is in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Here the amount decreased by 39.5% - from 33.1 billion to 20 billion rubles. At the same time, it is curious that the region fully repaid state guarantees for 7.4 billion rubles and loans to organizations for 25.7 billion rubles, but received liabilities on government securities for 20 billion.

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by types of debt obligations, thousand rubles (decline)

The fourth place belongs to the capital of Russia, Moscow. Its public debt has decreased by 39% - from 78.3 to 47.8 billion rubles. The city-region has reduced debts on budget loans from 21.5 billion to 13.5 billion rubles, on government securities - from 56.9 billion to 34.3 billion rubles.

The Kamchatka Territory closes the top five, having reduced the amount of debt by a third - from 5 billion to 3.3 billion rubles. The region fully paid off debts to organizations (1.1 billion rubles) and reduced the amount of budgetary debts (from 3.9 billion to 3.3 billion rubles).

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by types of debt obligations, thousand rubles

Maxim Matveev, analytical service of Realnoe Vremya

Debt rating of Russian regions. The volume of debt of the constituent entities of the federation in Russia is still relatively small, but at the beginning of this year already a third of the regions fall into the zone of debt instability, and a tenth of them violates the debt standards established by law.

The debt of the constituent entities of the Federation in Russia as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.35 trillion rubles. Municipal debt - 0.36 trillion. This is quite a bit for the large Russian economy: in total, about 3.2% of the country's GDP. For comparison: the federal public debt of the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2017 was four times more - about 10.4 trillion rubles. (internal and external).

But when compared with the regions' own revenues, the burden of debt on the regions seems to be significant - it is about a third of their own revenues. This is a significant, if not critical, value.

However, 42% of this debt is non-market debt of the regions to the Russian Federation (the interest rate on it is 0.1% per year, compare with commercial rates - above 10%). It is clear that with such a percentage, the share of debt service costs on average in the budgets of the subjects is very small (2.3% on average as of January 1, 2016).

The regions' debt has been growing noticeably over the past 10 years. During the previous crisis (2008-2009), it jumped from 15% to the regions' own revenues to 25%. The current one increased it to 32.8% in 2016.

In recent years, a policy of gradual replacement of commercial loans with budgetary ones has been pursued. The share of commercial loans in the public debt of entities decreased from 66% in 2013 to 54% in 2016. But it is obvious that the RF Ministry of Finance is implementing this replacement reluctantly and slowly, not at all eager to take on the debts of the regions. Although sometimes the Ministry of Finance thinks this is preferable to providing the regions with additional irrevocable subsidies. In addition, there are purely political benefits of such a strategy - the regions' dependence on the government and the Kremlin increases, which is important in the pre-election period.

The Finance Department stresses in every possible way that the process of replacing commercial loans with budgetary ones is a temporary anti-crisis measure. In 2016, over the first 11 months, the Ministry of Finance provided the regions with intergovernmental loans for RUB 305 billion. (including redemption - RUB 185 billion). This is almost 8% of the regions' debt - in general, a lot. For 2017–2018, the budget law provides for their provision in the amount of RUB 200 billion. (this amount was "knocked out" during the bargaining in the Federation Council, initially it was supposed to be half the figures), and in 2019 - 50 billion rubles. The replacement process is slowing down.

The share of securities in the regions' debt has remained unchanged for the last two years - 19% (2013 - 26%). The leadership of the constituent entities of the Federation was clearly unable to fulfill the recommendation of Vladimir Putin on the preference of using bonded mechanisms for raising funds over bank loans. At the beginning of 2017, 44 regions (more than half) had no debt in securities. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2016 74 constituent entities of the Federation planned to attract bank loans, and only 27 regions planned to issue bonds (in fact, 22 regions carried out it). At the same time, the main instrument for placing regional bonds on the market is not auctions, but “bookbuilding” (formation of a book of orders, in fact, an auction, on the contrary, with a decrease in the rate). In the practice of issuing bonds of the Russian Federation on the domestic market, almost only an auction is used. This demonstrates a clear lack of demand for regional bonds.

"Beyond the line"

8 regions - almost every tenth - have already turned out to be penalties violating the RF Budget Code. It prohibits regions from borrowing above the level of their own income (for highly subsidized regions - 50% of their own income). A list of these 8 regions is shown on the map).

However, the limitations of the Budget Code in practice are very "soft". Until January 1, 2018, the amount of budgetary debt is not taken into account in the maximum amount of the state debt of the subject, as well as the amount of budget loans attracted in the current year. With this in mind, out of 8 only one region is in the penalty box - the Republic of Khakassia with its large share of commercial loans. And the leader - Mordovia - goes down from the sky-high 176% to an acceptable 77%. And punishments for violation of the limits of the state debt of subjects established by the Code are not provided. However, the Ministry of Finance, of course, has enough leverage to "call to order" especially outstanding ones.

But there is no great desire to use them. For example, the financial department could not or did not want to oppose Mordovia's powerful borrowing program: over the past 3 years, it has increased its debt by more than 1.5 times, including through budget loans. It seems that no one in the country is particularly concerned about the situation, including Mordovia itself. Why should she worry? Despite the record debt, the cost of servicing it in the 2017 budget is a modest 2.4% - almost at the level of the regional average in Russia.

The only concern is the international rating agency Fitch, which in February 2016 assigned and in August confirmed the long-term rating of Mordovia at B +, the outlook is stable. According to his classification, this is a high-risk speculative rating: "at the moment financial obligations are being fulfilled, but the ability to continue payments is vulnerable in the event of a deterioration in the business or economic conditions." For comparison: Russia's rating, according to Fitch, is BBB- (below average reliability).

Fitch commented on its decision on Mordovia in August as follows: "The republic's volatile operating performance and high direct risk stemming from significant capital expenditures, which are mitigated by obtaining long-term loans from the federal budget at a low interest rate." And it threatened the republic with a rating reduction if the “direct risk” (the ratio of debt to own income) exceeds 140%. As you can see, it exceeded, and significantly. So far, Fitch has not responded to this in any way.

The above-mentioned “at fault” even under the current soft requirements of the Budget Code, the Republic of Khakassia with high commercial debt is assessed by the same Fitch more favorably: its rating is higher, BB-, the outlook is stable. “An acceptable operating balance in Khakassia, which nevertheless remains insufficient to cover the increased interest payments due to the high direct risk accumulated as a result of a significant budget deficit,” the agency's analysts write.

And what about the Finance Ministry? In the recently published "Guidelines for Debt Policy ..." he admits violations in 8 regions and the fact that in 2017 several more regions will cross the "line". But the average level of the subjects' debt burden is assessed as “acceptable”, since it “does not bear significant risks of a debt crisis”.

"Red zone"

The RF Budget Code defines two criteria for the debt sustainability of subjects:

- debt to own income,

- the cost of servicing the debt to the total budget expenses *.

According to the second criterion, the regions are doing well - due to the high share of intergovernmental loans in debt with almost zero interest. But according to the first criterion, there are obvious problems.

The Ministry of Finance considers regions with "low debt stability" to have a debt-to-income ratio of over 85% (for highly subsidized entities - over 45%). The list includes 24 regions according to the first criterion (8 "behind the line" and 16 "near the line"). According to the second criterion, 3-4 dozen regions ** can fit it, of which no more than a dozen have a debt-to-income ratio below 45%.

Thus, more than a third of Russian regions fall into the “low debt sustainability” column, and a tenth are clearly below the debt risk line.

The list of regions of the "red zone" itself looks very diverse: there are both national republics and central Russian regions. The regions are headed (stood during the recruitment of debt) both pro-government "appointees" and former communists or quite liberal governors. But those who are practically absent there are neither donor regions (they earn enough to borrow little), nor subsidized regions (their own incomes are too small to borrow a lot).

"Norm"

2 regions have no national debt at all - this is the "donor" Sakhalin region, which has been making good money for the last decade on PSA oil projects, and the "subsidy" city of Sevastopol, which has more federal budget revenues than its own revenues, and, apparently, did not have time to collect over the last 3 years of loans. But the Republic of Crimea has had time: its debt is 5.4 billion rubles. (17.5% of own income).

Nine regions of the country have national debt below 10% of their own revenues - these are mainly rich subjects with high tax revenues. The Altai Territory looks strange in this list with a subsidy of 66%; it clearly lagged behind other regions with its borrowings. But, according to the three-year budget adopted by him, the region begins to actively borrow and will leave this group this year (that is, it will collect debt).

Here, in the "norm", there are almost all regions - "donors" **** - Moscow, St. Petersburg, oil and gas Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, NAO, as well as Tatarstan and others. The debt of these regions has one distinct feature - it is mainly government securities. So, in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug their share was 87% of the total debt of the region, in Moscow - 78%, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory - 63%. The rest of the debt is intergovernmental loans; these regions borrow little from banks (too expensive, bonds are cheaper). Their credit ratings are usually at the level of the Russian Federation or slightly lower.

But the leading regions in terms of the level of subsidies entered the "middle peasants", above the Ministry of Finance "norm" (with debt from 50% to 85% to their own income). These are Ingushetia (federal budget receipts are 7.9 times higher than their own revenues), Chechnya (5.4 times), Tyva (4.3 times), etc. With such small own incomes, even a small debt already brings these regions to a high level ...

Debt "traffic light"

Thus, in the "green" (within the Ministry of Finance "norm") in the "red" (risky) zones are about a third of the subjects, and the remaining third - in the "yellow".

The average level of regional debt does not pose a threat to the country. Even debt leaders are nowhere near the possibility of default. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance took measures to contain the regional budget deficits, causing them to enter the commercial loans market. So far, nothing special has been needed for this. Enough "moral" work with debtors ... and pressure on the level of subsidies. In 2016, the growth of regional debt practically stopped, and its structure for the regions improved - the share of budget loans with a near-zero percentage increased. Even regions that are debt leaders with pre-default ratings (for example, one “B” letter from Fitch) do not yet face difficulties in making new loans. And they even plan to enter the government securities market. The amount of debt servicing of the regions of the "red" zone is not critical for the federal budget.

But what can happen if oil prices suddenly go down and the federal budget deficit starts to grow? The instability of the federal situation can immediately spill over to the regional level. In addition, this year will be the last to calculate the results of the execution of the May (2012) presidential decrees, according to which the bulk of funding is assigned to the regions. How can they report? The problem of regional debts is still small (although it is growing), but, as they say, it is not the way uphill that annoys, but a pebble in a shoe ...

* The RF BC sets the maximum value of this indicator to 15%. The Ministry of Finance considers the critical boundary of the share of service costs in the total own costs of St. 8%, but almost all Russian regions, as far as can be judged, are still out of the risk zone.
** Highly subsidized regions are those in which gratuitous receipts from the federal budget exceed 40% in the volume of own revenues of the consolidated budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation during two of the last three years. Exact own calculation is very laborious, the list of highly subsidized regions is not officially published.
*** See “Recommendations on the Conduct of Responsible Debt / Debt Policy by the Subjects of the Russian Federation” on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
**** See the list of “donor” regions in the “Rating of Russian regions”, “Profile” No. 47 of December 19, 2016.