John Murphy - Murphy's Laws. What is Murphy's law Murphy's laws if it should happen

A foreign general analogue of the Russian “law of meanness”, “law of the sandwich” and “general effect”.

Attributed to Captain Edward A. Murphy, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory engineer serving at Edwards AFB in 1949. Although expressions describing a similar principle were obviously used in everyday life before.

There are different quantities and formulations of the law itself and its consequences. Many of them are used in comedy stories.

Origin

Formulation

If carried out n tests, the result of each of which is evaluated by a logical function z, and the result “false” is undesirable, then for a sufficiently large n required for at least one test A we will get an undesirable result.

Callaghan's comment

Callaghan commented on Murphy's law. He formulated it in the form:

Murphy was an optimist.

Callaghan's comment was later restated in a more rigorous form as:

For anyone n there will be m, and m< n {\displaystyle m, such that if n is large enough to satisfy Murphy's law under these specific conditions, then m there are enough tests so that at least one of them A gave an undesirable result ¬ z (A) (\displaystyle \lnot z(A)).

Consequences

The investigations were published in verbal form, not without a touch of humor. Today this form is called "canonical". All consequences in the canonical formulations should be understood as taking place under the conditions of Murphy’s law, that is, for a sufficiently large number of trials, provided there is a function that evaluates the desirability or undesirability of an individual event. Taking this into account, modern strict formulations of the consequences have been developed.

The first five consequences are formulated, like Murphy's law itself, in terms of probability theory.

Edwards in California studied the causes of airplane crashes. Captain Edward Murphy, who served at the base. Murphy), assessing the work of technicians in one of the laboratories, argued that if something can be done incorrectly, then these technicians will do just that. According to legend, the phrase (“If there are two ways to do something, and one of which leads to disaster, then someone will choose that way”) was first said when a running airplane engine began to rotate the propeller in the wrong direction. . As it turned out later, the technicians installed the parts backwards.

Northrop project manager J. Nichols called these constant problems “Murphy’s law.” At one of the press conferences, the Air Force colonel who conducted it stated that everything achieved in ensuring flight safety was the result of overcoming “Murphy’s law.” This is how the expression got into the press. Over the next few months, this principle became widely used in industrial advertising and found its way into everyday life.

Formulation

In its modern interpretation, Murphy's law is usually most simply formulated in terms of classical probability theory:

If carried out n tests, the result of each of which is evaluated by a logical function z, and the result “false” is undesirable, then for a sufficiently large n required for at least one test A we will get an undesirable result.

Murphy's law is confirmed in all practical tests. This is to some extent related to Murphy’s law and Fermat’s great theorem (the latter was proven quite recently, several centuries after its formulation).

Callaghan's comment

see also

Links

Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Books

• Arthur Bloch. Murphy's Law. Lawrence J. Peter. The Peter Principle, or Why Things Always Go Wrong, Arthur Bloch, Lawrence J. Peter. This collection will “arm” you, firstly, with a scientific and philosophical justification for many facts; similar...

What is Murphy's Law

Most likely, you will not be able to find a person for whom everything always goes according to plan. It happens that you plan an event, calculate all the little details, and then “BANG!!!” and something out of the ordinary arises, smashing everything planned into dust. A sandwich that accidentally falls out of your hands has exactly 50 percent chance of landing butter side up. But no, it always falls oil side down.

Cases of this kind are popularly called the law of meanness, which in the world is officially called “Murphy’s law.”

What is MURPHY'S LAW - meaning, definition in simple words.

Murphy's law is a philosophical principle that is formulated this way: “If there is a possibility that some kind of trouble can happen, then it will definitely happen”

Why Murphy's Law?

In 1949, an engineer named Edward Murphy was stationed at Edwards Air Force Base. He was working on a project whose goal was to find out the maximum possible overload that the human body can withstand.

One day, during testing, the propeller blades of a running airplane began to rotate in the wrong direction. ( The technicians installed the parts incorrectly) According to legend, it was at this moment that Edward Murphy said the phrase: “If there are two ways to do something, and one of them leads to disaster, then someone will choose that way.”

After this incident, the head of the department, J. Nichols, made it a rule to call all such unpleasant cases “Murphy’s law.” This expression hit the press and became widely used in all areas of activity.

Murphy's canonical laws:

1. Everything is not as easy as it seems.
2. Everything takes longer than you might expect.
3. If some trouble can happen, it will definitely happen. Moreover: if several troubles can happen, then they will all definitely happen and, moreover, in the most unfavorable sequence.
4. If N causes of possible troubles are eliminated in advance, then there will always be a cause numbered N+1.
5. Left to their own devices, events tend to go from bad to worse.
6. As soon as you start doing some work, there is another that needs to be done even earlier.
7. Every solution creates new problems.

After several decades, hundreds of laws of “meanness” were formed that apply to all areas of human life.

Here are some examples of Murphy's Law:

• The worse a person does at work, the less chance of getting rid of him.
• The smaller the position, the more noticeable your absence from the workplace.
• On the day you decide to skip work, you wake up at first light.
• When the boss comes to your workplace, you are always busy with something else.
• If you put 6 socks in the washing machine, you only take 5 out.
• What I want to buy is beyond my means; and what you can afford is still too expensive.
• The fish starts biting the moment you are distracted.
• My neighbor's fish always bite better.

On the Internet you can find a lot of specialized sites that collect similar examples.

There are many variations of Murphy's law: a sandwich falls butter side down, the change at the cash register always runs out right in front of you, etc. I always assumed that Murphy's law is just a piece of folk wisdom, expressing ideas about the world in an ironic form, and Murphy - fictional character. Therefore, I was very surprised when I learned that Murphy is not just a real person, but also an engineer in the US Air Force, and the so-called “classical” version of the law that bears his name actually belongs to his lips.

Oddly enough, "Murphy" is Captain Edward Aloysius Murphy (b. 1917), a graduate of the Army Academy at West Point and a former fighter pilot who participated in the first experiments in the mid-1940s to study the human body's response to super-acceleration. . During the experiments, which were carried out at Edwards Air Force Base in California's Mojave Desert, a volunteer was strapped to a kind of sled, which, moving along rails, received acceleration from a rocket engine. The sled received the greatest acceleration (in this case, negative) at the end of the trip, when the speed of its movement was sharply slowed down by a pool of water installed on the rails.

Needless to say, this was a system in which any surprise could occur. As the designer of one of the sled's mechanisms, Murphy was constantly wondering why his systems weren't working properly. Here are his real words (the first formulation of Murphy's law): “If something can be done in several ways and one of them does not work, then there will definitely be someone who will resort to that particular method.” It seems to me that the fact that the original thought, distorted many times, turned into the well-known statement that I gave at the beginning of the article, only confirms Murphy’s law. By the way, as it later turned out, problems with Murphy’s mechanism arose due to the fact that the technician installed it backwards - here is another excellent example of the law in action.

Of course, Murphy's "law" is not a law in the sense in which the word is used elsewhere in this book. What I mean is that it has never been subjected to the rigorous testing that the scientific method requires. Nevertheless, this piece of folk wisdom helps us more calmly survive those moments when fate turns away from us.

But in addition, the law expresses the engineer’s views on life. All engineers know that the first (and second and third) thing they do is test a complex system, and it doesn't work. And it is not expected that it will work right away. The ultimate goal of testing is to find problems in the system so that they can be fixed. There is a fundamental difference between how an engineer and an ordinary person approaches this issue. Thus, the ridicule that the American space program suffered in the 1960s, when rockets exploded one after another at launch, shows that the public simply does not understand the purpose of the tests. Of course, the problems were eventually corrected, and after the success of the Apollo program, all ridicule ceased. A similar phenomenon was observed at the beginning of the 21st century during a public discussion of the American missile defense system.

I think that designers are guided precisely by Murphy’s law when “just in case” they increase the safety factor in their structures and mechanisms. Most buildings, for example, can withstand loads at least 50% greater than those encountered in real life, simply because their builders know that something can go wrong.

The thing is, engineers like to think about the system's flaws. I remember a seminar at the University of Virginia in the early 1970s, before the launch of the first space shuttle. The speaker was a NASA engineer who led the creation of the space shuttle engine. And for an hour and a half he explained in chilling detail why his engine should not have worked. I have never seen such an enthusiastic audience: these guys were enjoying contemplating a system where so many things can break. I think this Calvinistic character trait must be present in every engineer if he is to succeed. The fact that one day he will create a system that works flawlessly is beside the point.

Murphy's Law- This is an ironic principle in philosophy, based on the theory that if there is even the slightest probability of a negative ending to the work started, then it will happen. In Russian there is an analogue of Murphy's law - the so-called law of meanness. The development of this principle is attributed to the engineer Major Edward A. Murphy, who served at Edwards Air Force Base (California) in the 1940s.

Where did it all start?

In the mid-twentieth century, workers at the Edwards base were engaged in research into the causes of air transport accidents. Edward Murphy also worked on the research. At that time he studied the issues of overload on the human body and the ability to withstand them. According to legend, during the next test of the aircraft, when the propeller began to rotate in the other direction, E. Murphy said a phrase with which the theory of the law began. The phrase sounded like this: “If there are several ways to do something, and the results of what is done can be both positive and negative, then there will definitely be a person who uses a method that will lead to a negative result.”

At a meeting with journalists, the project manager uttered the phrase that everything was achieved thanks to overcoming “Murphy’s Laws,” which was immediately picked up by the press and thus spread among the general public. Very soon the concept of “Murphy’s law” gained publicity and its use was in no way associated with aviation, or even with the author himself.

And already in the 70s, a whole book dedicated to merphology was published. The book was a great success among readers.

Murphy's Law as a common noun

Now the expression “Murphy’s law” has become a household name and is used in all spheres of life, including in the field of finance and business.

As in any situation, merfology has its supporters and opponents. Opponents believe that Murphy's laws kill all faith in the positive. Supporters of the law, on the contrary, talk about a truthful attitude to what is happening. In their opinion, if things went wrong in business somehow, then they should look at their development from the other side.

Murphy's Laws are a humorous approach to success and failure. But, despite all the irony, they sound quite pessimistic and make you think.

Murphy's law for business and finance, their application in doing business

• If there is even the slightest probability of non-return of the invested funds, then so it will happen.

• If there is a possibility of betting on a losing position, then it will be unprofitable.

This law talks about risks in business. In other words, when calculating your income, a businessman should not hope for one hundred percent profit and must take this into account when building his financial behavior.

• There is no deal so bad that it could be worse.

• After several unsuccessful trades, the cycle repeats.

1. In the world of traders, there are many circumstances that a person cannot change. If you take them into account, then the difficulties that arise can be overcome; the main thing is not to give up and be prepared for unforeseen circumstances.

• A good investment should have been made yesterday.

You should not think that investments made today will only give you profit, even if the forecasts are quite positive.

• No matter which way the market develops, there will always be someone who knew that this would be the case.

• Having at your disposal two analysts with different views on the development of the situation, you can determine the final outcome.

It is always worth listening to different opinions on running a business, then you will be prepared for difficulties and possible developments in the situation.

• If it has negative sides, and you remove them, then another problem will definitely appear.

In the financial world you can never guess how developments will go and you need to be prepared for this.

Here are a few more Murphy's laws applied to financial markets

• As soon as you are about to place a bet, the price immediately drops.

• Growth in the market will begin exactly when you need to leave.

• The terminal will start updating exactly at the moment a good deal is opened.

• Confidence in the movement of the market is directly proportional to your desire to enter it.

• It can make mistakes and this is normal, but the computer can completely confuse the situation.

• The opportunity for a good deal was when the power was out.

• Do not trust anyone who talks about making a profit, since the main task is to keep losses to a minimum.

• Your friend's quotes are always better than yours.

• The rate rises until you place a bet.

• All losses become clear at the very last moment. Hope dies last.

Murphy's Law, therefore, gives impetus to self-development, teaches you not to hide from failures and problems that arise, but to turn them into your achievements and successes. It is very important for any businessman and trader to be able to calculate the outcome several steps ahead. This is the essence of Murphy's law.

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