Yes, not that "everyone", and not so much that they "want" very much.
Despite the bipartisan system and political rivalry, neither Republicans nor Democrats have ever set themselves the task of gaining political advantage by impeaching an opposing president. Such actions, if they were accepted as a rule, would lead to the destruction of the institution of the presidency and undermine the entire structure of the country's political system. This does not meet anyone's interests: today you are politically destroying your rival in power, but tomorrow your president will be destroyed in the same way - and what next?
Impeachment is a political scalpel in a kind of "surgical" operation, used precisely to protect the institution of the presidency in special circumstances - to remove from office a president who has committed crimes or at least misdemeanors incompatible with this position. That is why cases of impeachment in American history are extremely rare - only 3 cases: against two - E. Johnson in 1868 and B. Clinton in 1998 - the impeachment procedure was initiated, but was not brought to the end, until condemned by the Senate, and R .Nixon preferred to resign in 1974 on his own initiative, rather than to bring the impeachment that had begun to the end, since the prospect of conviction by the Senate was real (he was later forgiven by George Ford, who succeeded him as president). But not a single US president has yet been convicted by the Senate.
In the current situation with Trump, it is noticeable that the Democrats are very restrained and do not seek to score political points at the expense of the Republicans. Although one of the Democratic congressmen, Al Green, has already raised the issue of impeachment against Trump in the House of Representatives, his initiative has not found support in his own party - everyone wants to wait for convincing and concrete evidence of Trump's guilt from the ongoing investigation.
It is impossible to talk about the impeachment of the US president when there is no reason for it. And the reasons appeared even before Trump was elected president. The FBI launched an investigation back in the summer of 2016 based on information received about the ties between Trump's campaign headquarters and Russian intelligence and Moscow's attempts to influence the outcome of the US elections. But once it has begun, the investigation must be carried through to the end, which we are witnessing at the present time. This is no longer a question of wanting or not wanting. The FBI does not start an investigation from scratch, and even against a presidential candidate. The very fact of its beginning indicates that the FBI already had good reason. Now these grounds and evidence are gradually becoming public.
In parallel, new grounds for impeachment appeared - they were created by Trump himself with his extremely inept actions and statements. First of all, this is due to his sudden decision to fire FBI Director Komi, who was in charge of the investigation on "Russian influence." At the same time, Trump initially stated that this dismissal had nothing to do with the Russian theme, but a day later he publicly admitted and, which caused particular irritation in Washington, in an interview with Lavrov, that the dismissal was connected precisely with the Russian trace. So he lied. In addition, Trump tried to get the heads of the two intelligence services to officially declare that he, Trump, was not the subject of an ongoing investigation. They refused to do it.
In the United States, such a move is viewed as perjury and obstruction of justice. Even regardless of whether concrete evidence of illegal ties with the Russian side is revealed, lies and obstruction of the investigation themselves can become grounds for impeachment.
But the main thing is different. Numerous and gross illegal actions were revealed on the part of the former assistant to the president for national security Flynn (in particular, undeclared contacts with the Russian ambassador, receiving money from the Russian side, deceiving the vice president), as well as Trump's son-in-law and one of the current leaders of the Kushner administration (also undeclared contacts with the Russian ambassador, discussion with him of the possibility of using Russian technical means in the building of the Russian embassy for secret contacts with Moscow bypassing official channels). In these cases, the topic of espionage arose. The question is to what extent Trump authorized or at least knew about these actions by Flynn and Kushner. It turned out that in conversations with Komi, the president sought to end the investigation against Flynn.
Distancing from Trump has emerged in the ranks of Republicans in Congress. Republican leaders of the Senate and House of Congress committees for intelligence, military affairs, and oversight receive a lot of materials from the investigation that expose Trump. In this regard, they have no choice but to intensify the Congressional investigation, broaden the circle of witnesses and tighten their actions against Flynn and others who refuse to cooperate with the relevant committees.
Republicans have also clearly begun to understand that with Trump they will not be able to implement their domestic political agenda, and defeat in the 2018 midterm elections could be quite real. Polls show support for Trump's nuclear electorate is eroding. In the country as a whole, Trump's policies and actions are approved by only 36-42% of voters - a record low in US history.
Of course, in the American and international political environment there are many who openly gloat over Trump's eventual impeachment - Trump has quarreled with too many due to his political inexperience and emotional instability. The world of politics is different from business. The President of the United States must consider many balances and realities. But such gloating is part of political intrigue - not so long ago, Trump, Flynn and others gloatedly beat their throats at campaign rallies, calling on Clinton to be tried simply because she used private e-mail.
The previously announced almost 50-page report on Russia's interference in the American elections and the ties between Donald Trump's entourage and Russian officials. The author of Russiagate: The Depth of Collusion is Max Bergmann, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and an expert on US-Russian relations and US foreign policy.
The report is in fact a visual aid to the manipulation of American politics. In the spirit of House of Cards, he tells not only about the facts of cooperation between the Trump team and the Russians, but also describes how and when the Republican's headquarters responded, for example, to the new findings of law enforcement agencies. It's not about background comments, but specific media stuffing. Like Wikileaks leaked letters from Democrats received thanks to Russian hackers on the day of the publication of a new report by the Ministry of Homeland Security and the NSA on Russian interference in the elections, as well as just 29 minutes after the start of the story about Trump's insulting remarks about women who launched a sexist scandal and turned into " Women's marches ".
Bergmann gave an interview to Buzzfeed the day before and gave journalists a glimpse of the report before it was posted on the website. By the way, one cannot but recall that the Buzzfeed publication has already become involved in high-profile informants on Trump. When, with reference to the so-called, he wrote about sexual pleasures, not without the perversions of a republican in a Moscow hotel. So, BF writes that the report is addressed to American Democratic lawmakers: “It contains arguments in favor of the version of collusion between Trump's campaign headquarters and Russia. that there was a conspiracy, "and also:" this is the largest political scandal in American history. " ".
The author uses the document as an incentive for legislators, first of all, Democrats, to become more decisive and harsh in rhetoric. He alludes to the impeachment procedure discussed at the end of the report. Where Nixon's Watergate scandal is also mentioned.
After reading the entire report, there is a sense of a clear understanding of everything that is happening in the relationship between the Trump campaign and the Russians. This is a journalistic and analytical novel with a clear logical presentation. Bergmann starts the document with Donald Trump Jr. as he is now in the spotlight. In particular, the author cites the correspondence between the president's son and music critic Robert Goldstone, to whom Russian businessman Emin Agalarov offered dirt on Hillary Clinton. Emin is the son of the owner of the Crocus Group, Aras Agalarov, who is associated with the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation, Yuri Chaika. Mention is also made of the recent meeting of Trump Jr. and the long-known Paul Manafort with Russian lawyer-FSB Natalya Veselnitskaya, which took place on June 9, 2016 in New York. At the meeting, according to media reports, the son of the future president asked for information about Clinton.
Further in the text there is even more specifics. For example, Trump's partners and figures close to the Kremlin are known to have called and met at least 18 and 10 times, respectively. Thanks to investigations by The New York Times and The Guardian, it is known that such contacts have been going on since 2015. Former director of US national intelligence James Klapper on May 8 at a hearing in Congress said that representatives of the intelligence services of Great Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Estonia and Australia announced this at one time.
Although, in fact, the web of connections between Trump's people, Bergmann notes, and Kremlin figures, in some cases, has been spinning for decades. And this is already a guarantee for a certain level of trust. Trump himself at the Miss Universe pageant in Moscow in 2013, organized together with Agalarov, said that he "knew these guys well." His son has visited Russia at least eight times since 2006: six times between 2006 and 2008, and two more times in 2011-2013.
Bergmann did not forget about the hacker attacks of Russians, and about Russian bots in the service of Trump, and about his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who admitted that he had asked Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak about the communication channel closed from the American special services; about the dismissal from the post of FBI Director James Comey and his confessions; pressure on Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller; about the common server of Trump Tower, Russian Alfa-Bank and Spectrum Health; and about many other things that have already surfaced in many materials of the leading media and reports of law enforcement officers. In addition, the author compiled a list of violations of American laws, which has prerequisites for expansion: hacking of networks of political parties and ordinary citizens, theft of emails, fraud using electronic and telephone communications, helping a foreign state in its attempts to interfere in the US elections, pressure on law enforcement agencies , lying under oath and obstruction of justice.
In the conclusion to the report, Bergmann, without evasion, demonstrates the ultimate goal of the report - impeachment. He admits that the Ministry of Justice has previously stated that the current president will not be removed from office, but also reminded that especially grave accusations open the way for this.
If the 50-page appeal for Democrats, and even moderate Republicans, works, then the informational persecution of Trump and his entourage will intensify even more. It is also noteworthy that, along with the publication of the Associated Press document, it underlines the deep rift between the White House and the "elephants" in Congress. There was no loud break, but step by step, Senate Republicans turned their backs on President Donald Trump. Why? Demarch against lifting Obamacare, defense of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and sanctions against Russia, despite the administration's objections. "We work for the American people. We don't work for the president," Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina said Tuesday.
And he did not fail to "pinch" Trump, writing that the president is lazy to work hard, is spoiled, etc. And he began his criticism with a curious parallel between Trump and Obama. Back in 2011, the shadow of default hung over the United States, which hit the ratings of the then president hard. Obama promised to resolve the crisis, and after the speech he decided to distract himself a little and collect his thoughts - he went to play golf. It was Saturday. On Monday, Trump tweeted that, he says, how bad Obama is - plays golf when there are such problems. The Republican remembered the game of golf very often to the Democrat. So, at a meeting with supporters in August 2016, he assured: "I will work for you. I will not have time to play golf." And what? After becoming president, Trump hasn't taken his eyes off the golf courses at Mar-a-Lago or Bedminster. Summarizing, we note that this Newsweek story is another brick in the actively promoted image of Trump as a child. How such a person can rule the leading country in the world is the main message.
On the other hand, even the hawks are likely to keep hopes that a tough readiness will make Trump useful to the party. One of them, Senator Lindsay Graham, unexpectedly praised the president after criticizing Trump's assaults on Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who had stepped back from the Rossigate investigation. In an interview with NBC News, published on August 2, he spoke about a conversation with the owner of the Oval Office, who assured that he was ready for a war against the DPRK and "kill thousands of North Koreans." Pyongyang is a threat. And this is a fact that does not cause doubts for Trump in comparison with Russia.
The elephants believe (or want to believe) that Trump can be completely controlled, through investigations in particular. The signing of the law on new sanctions is evidence of this.
If the Democrats decide on a massive campaign for impeachment, then the Republicans will not get involved until it becomes clear to them that you cannot cook porridge with Trump. Risking your own (albeit such) president is unreasonable.
But they have a worthy replacement. Even more worthy than the current leader of the country. In case of resignation, Vice President Mike Pence will take up the baton. He is a reliable Republican and an experienced official, which is why he was selected for the post of vice president. Careful selection led to discussions about Pence's presidency during the race. Conversations have intensified already under Trump in the White House. On May 17, the Politico website published an article: "Conservatives begin to whisper: President Pence."
Less than three months later, the columnist for the German Süddeutsche Zeitung, Beata Wild, touched on this topic. Pence has recently intensified communication with major donors to the Republican Party, she said. And for this he arranges small "get-togethers" in his residence at the US Naval Observatory, where bank managers, industrial magnates, lobbyists and Republican politicians stop by. In addition, he has a political community, Great America Committee, at the ready, whose task is to raise funds for the 2018 elections, but which can also become a wallet for its own 2020 campaign. And Wild adds that Pence is now several times more popular than Trump among his party members. So here is the answer to the question of what will happen if Donald Trump leaves the White House, indolently.
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko raised a hat that fell from one of the soldiers of the guard of honor during the official ceremony. Poroshenko's press secretary Svyatoslav Tsegolko wrote about this on his Facebook page and posted a video.
President of Austria Alexander Van der Bellen arrived in Ukraine on a three-day official visit. During the ceremony of meeting with one of the guards, there was an awkwardness - his hat fell from him. While the hymns of Ukraine and Austria were being sung, the hat lay on the ground. After that, the president bent down, picked up his cap from the ground and put it back on the soldier.
“A military hat with a Ukrainian trident should not lie on the ground. The President helped the soldier of the guard of honor. Very humanly, "Tsegolko approved of the president's deed.
Poroshenko lifted the fallen cap of a soldier
It's good that this time the guard lost his cap, not consciousness. We will remind, on June 7, 2014 one of the soldiers of the guard of honor in the presence of Poroshenko. At the inauguration ceremony, as the president walked past him, he dropped his carbine and nearly fell under the president's feet. The reason was the intense heat, in which the soldiers spent several hours and the fact that the guard was nervous, even though he tried to hold on. Later it was reported that his state of health
Let's remember September 2016: there are two weeks left before the publication of the controversial audio recording of Access Hollywood, two months before the election of Donald Trump, and most political experts predict Hillary Clinton's victory. At this time, history professor Allan Lichtman, who specializes in US presidents, makes a bold prediction: Donald Trump will be our next president. We now know that Professor Lichtman was right, and this should not surprise us: he has been unmistakably guessing the outcome of the presidential election for over 30 years.
Allan Likhtman is with us today. It's worth noting that he also predicts impeachment for President Trump.
Allan, let me first ask you a question about the name that appears on the news. Today on Twitter, the president commented on an article by The New York Times, according to which the president was interviewing Emmett Flood or is simply interested in hiring him. Tell us about it. This is the lawyer who represented President Clinton during the impeachment hearings.
ALLAN LICHTMAN, historian: Right. He works for one of the leading law firms. He has been involved in many malfeasance cases and was a special advisor to the George W. Bush administration. And, of course, he was best known for advising Bill Clinton during impeachment. So this shows how serious the Trump administration is taking this investigation and how worried his lawyers are about a possible sworn testimony as part of the Mueller investigation. This is a serious step.
Help us understand what role he (Emmett Flood - InoTV) played. After all, then, during the proceedings in the House of Representatives, the President (Clinton - InoTV) was then represented by many reputable lawyers. What was his specific role? What do you think is his specialization?
ALLAN LICHTMAN: His specialization is high-level litigation, malfeasance, including politics. He was Clinton's confidant and advisor, helping strategize during the impeachment proceedings. Obviously, this is exactly what Donald Trump needs.
I must point out that on Twitter this morning, the president denied any intention to reshuffle his legal team. But let's take on faith what The New York Times writes, Allan. I wonder what this says about the progress of the investigation? The fact that the president is reportedly considering this option and is considering changes to his team.
ALLAN LICHTMAN: Yes, I think he will make some changes to his team. It is not at all necessary that the president listens to this command. And, apparently, they are conducting very delicate negotiations ... or they are about to start negotiations on a possible testimony by the president. And here they have to be very, very careful. Because this president is an incorrigible liar. In just over a year, The Washington Post found he lied about 2,500 times. He also lies under oath. In my opinion it is reason for impeachment.
I studied his affidavit in 2007, when he unsuccessfully sued journalist Timothy O'Brien, who allegedly underestimated his condition. And Trump's testimony is riddled with lies. He claims he was paid over $ 1 million to speak at The Learning Annex in New York because he is in such high demand. But in fact, he was paid $ 400,000.
He claimed to own 50% of the largest real estate development firm in Manhattan, but in reality his share is less than 30%. He claimed that things were going so well in Las Vegas that they sold all the apartment buildings in less than a week. But in fact, the property registers indicated that after a few months, the owners of 30% of the apartment buildings were still unknown.
He states that he hardly knew a man named Felix Sater, a shadowy businessman with connections in Russia with whom Trump collaborated on many business projects, and just two months earlier, he was photographed with Trump when they opened the Trump-Soho hotel in New York.
And by the way, Felix Sater will appear twice more in the Trump saga. It was he who tried to conclude a deal in 2015, during the election campaign, for the construction of Trump Tower in Moscow. And he said: "We will connect Putin and elect you, buddy, to the presidency."
And then he reappears as one of three men - along with Michael Cohen, the lawyer involved in the Stormy Daniel case - who presented to Michael Flynn, the national security adviser, just before his resignation, a proposal to lift sanctions on Russia.
It's amazing how everything is interconnected, and now you understand why the idea of Trump's testimony is so disturbing that they are even ready to use legal heavy artillery.
You have told us everything clearly. "Reason for Impeachment" is already on sale. Allan Lichtman from American University. Thank you for your time.
On July 12, Congressmen Brad Sherman and Al Green from the US Democratic Party impeach US President Donald Trump for obstructing an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Does the US president face impeachment, what is the procedure, are there other ways to remove Trump from his post - in the material TUT.BY.
What is impeachment and where did it come from?
Impeachment is the procedure for removing and holding officials accountable. The impeachment mechanism originated in 14th century England, where it was used against non-judiciary nobles and royal advisers.
The authors of the US Constitution, fearing a possible tyranny, introduced the idea of impeachment as one of the most important parts of the American system of checks and balances. High-ranking US officials - federal judges, justices of the Supreme Court, governors, ministers, vice presidents, and presidents - may be subject to this procedure.
For what can they be impeached?
According to the American Constitution, "for high treason (the United States is considered treason only to wage war against the United States or to join their enemies, provide help and support to the enemies. - Approx. TUT.BY), bribery or other" serious crimes and offenses. " At the same time, there is no generally accepted definition of "serious crimes and offenses", and impeachment is applicable in the event of any abuse of power or any behavior that could undermine the president's credibility.
Let's explain with specific examples.
Have there been precedents in US history?
For more than 200 years, the US House of Representatives has initiated impeachment proceedings against three presidents - Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.
In 1868, Andrew Johnson was accused of exceeding his authority by firing the Secretary of War, but the Senate acquitted the President of the United States.
In 1974, a House Judiciary Committee recommended impeachment proceedings against 37th Republican President Richard Nixon due to wiretapping in the Democratic Party office at the Watergate Hotel during the presidential campaign. He was charged with three charges: obstruction of justice, abuse of power and contempt of Congress. Nixon had resigned even before the congressional hearing began.
In 1998, the US House of Representatives initiated impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton. He was accused of perjury and obstruction of justice because he lied under oath - in his affidavit and in a jury trial - about having sex with White House employee Monica Lewinsky. Clinton was acquitted by the Senate, 55 of which found him not guilty and 45 guilty.
How is the impeachment procedure in the United States?
Any congressman or committee in the House of Representatives can propose impeachment. This initiative should be considered by the House Judiciary Committee. Then the committee's conclusions must be supported by the House of Representatives itself - if a simple majority supports at least one of the charges, the president is officially impeached.
Capitol. Photo: Reuters The House of Representatives appoints special representatives of the prosecution - the "accusers". The president selects lawyers who will represent the defense side - the “defenders”. And the further fate of the president is decided in the Senate - the senators become a "jury" headed by the chairman of the Supreme Court. To make a decision on impeachment, the support of 2/3 of the senators is needed. If there are enough votes in the Senate, the president is removed from office.
What is Trump accused of?
Brad Sherman and Al Green from the American Democratic Party have put forward an initiative to impeach US President Donald Trump for obstructing an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. According to Sherman, the attempt by the son of the American leader - Donald Trump Jr. - on ex-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton shows that Trump's campaign headquarters wanted help from Russia.
“It now looks like the president has something to hide, given how he tried to wind down an investigation into former National Security Assistant - and FBI Director James Comey. This all constitutes a hindrance to justice, ”Sherman said in a statement on his website.
In addition to the statement, Sherman published the text of the document itself, which he titled "Articles of Impeachment." This resolution states that "Donald Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for particularly serious crimes and acts." The resolution accuses Trump of "violating the oath of allegiance to the constitution" and "violating the constitutional obligation to enforce laws."
Will Trump face impeachment?
The likelihood that the initiative put forward by the Democrats will be approved by the House of Representatives is extremely small: Donald Trump was nominated for the elections from the Republicans. Currently, in the two houses of the US Congress, the Republican Party has the majority of votes: in the House of Representatives - 238 against 193, and in the Senate - 52 against 46. Even if the overwhelming majority of Trump's party members disagree with his policies, his removal from office would signify the collapse of the entire party ...
Brad Sherman is confident that Trump's behavior, even "after long, long months," will force Republicans to join the impeachment efforts.
At the same time, there is a likelihood of a split among the Democrats - not all party representatives like the fact that in the process of fighting Trump other issues are forgotten - health care, education, and so on.
Are there other ways to change the president?
Impeachment is not the only way to remove the US president. According to the 25th amendment to the US Constitution, the president can be removed from power even without impeachment proceedings if he is "unable to fulfill his duties in office." For example, the head of state may be seriously ill, in a coma, become insane, lose memory, etc. In this case, the vice president, with the consent of the majority of the members of the cabinet of ministers, has the right to send a special letter to Congress, where he explains the situation and announces that he is now the head of state instead of the president himself.
However, the president may disagree with the decision of his cabinet and send his own letter to Congress, in which he declares his suitability for the performance of duties. In this case, Congress decides which side to take. Only two-thirds of the votes in both houses can be removed by Congress to remove the president from power.
The 25th Amendment has never been applied in US history.
What will happen after the impeachment if it takes place?
In the event that it comes to impeachment and the Senate decides not in favor of Trump, the US president will have to leave office. In addition, it will be prohibited from occupying it in the future.
The duties of the President of the United States until 2020 will be performed by the incumbent Vice President Mike Pence.