On October 25, a press conference was held in Beijing at which the composition of the new Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, which serves as the supreme authority in China, was presented. The number of members of the PC remained the same, it included: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang, Wang Huning, ZhaoLeji, HanZheng. The names of PC members were announced by the General Secretary in this order. Thus, the formation of a new composition of the most important leadership bodies of the CPC was completed, which includes, in addition to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the Central Committee and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CDCD).
Li Keqiang. Photo by REUTERS
During his five years in power, Xi Jinping has managed to consolidate significant power in his hands. At the 18th Party Congress in 2012, Xi was chosen largely as a compromise figure, representing the so-called “princes”, descendants of the founders and first leaders of the PRC. He was also close to the Shanghainese, who are a significant force in the political and economic spheres of China. Li Keqiang, a representative of another influential political group - the Komsomol members - was elected Premier of the State Council. Under the Chinese system of government, the party general secretary is the political leader, while the country's economy is managed by the State Council under the leadership of its premier.
After coming to power, Xi Jinping gradually deprived Li Keqiang of the levers of control, concentrating the main levers in his hands with the help of “small groups” - semi-official party and state bodies reporting to him. Key decisions and initiatives in the economy were made by Xi Jinping in the party authorities, bypassing the State Council, led by Li Keqiang. Thus, Xi was able to concentrate decision-making in the political and economic spheres in his hands.
Xi Jinping. Photo by REUTERS
The PRC leader also strengthened his personal power within the CCP. On his initiative, a large-scale anti-corruption campaign was launched, during which all strong leaders capable of challenging Xi Jinping were eliminated. All management, from middle to high and top levels, was subjected to major purges. The vacant seats were filled by Xi Jinping’s associates, acquaintances from work in the provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, as well as a group from Shaanxi province. They formed an influence group that was personally loyal to the General Secretary of the CCP. During the five years of Xi's reign, Jinping replaced 8 ministers and 3 senior party officials, 21 provincial party secretaries, 17 governors, 3 out of 4 mayors of cities centrally subordinate to the PRC. Thus, the leader of the PRC created a core of his team loyal to him, which occupied the main commanding heights in the party and state apparatus. This was a particularly important point in the preparations for the 19th CPC Congress: the Chinese state is a decentralized bureaucratic system in which the support of provincial leadership and various departments is of great importance.
It should be noted that the significant strengthening of Xi Jinping’s power is not only as a result of internal political struggle. Such changes in the political system of the PRC are rather a consequence of the evolution of the state. The ongoing changes in the economy and social sphere require greater concentration of power and active action, which predetermined Xi’s model of power. The factionalism of the CCP was also generated by the rapidly growing market economy. Now, in the context of a change in the economic model, it is necessary to concentrate power and eliminate the resistance of groups whose financial well-being is based on the old economic model.
19th Congress of the Communist Party of China. Photo by REUTERS
By the 19th Congress of the CPC, Xi Jinping had become one of the most powerful leaders in the history of the PRC. He concentrated in his hands significant power in the party, administrative and military spheres. During 2017, Xi took a number of measures to strengthen his own position ahead of the CPC Congress. Pressure has been intensified on representatives of other groups as part of a campaign against the so-called “gray rhinos” - problematic companies with connections to management and living off government subsidies. An example of such actions is the arrest of Anbang head Wu Xiaohui, who is married to Deng Xiaoping's granddaughter. DalianWanda, Fosun, and HNA also had problems.
Pressure on companies associated with the country's former leaders, combined with Xi Jinping's appointment of his proteges to key positions, was intended to strengthen the position of the PRC leader in bargaining for the composition of the future Standing Committee. Officially, the composition of the PC and the Politburo is determined by delegates at the party congress, but in fact a list of candidates is submitted to the congress for consideration, which are determined by long behind-the-scenes negotiations. The final list reflects the degree of influence of the various factions and the overall balance of power.
Before the congress, various assumptions were made both regarding the composition of the PC and about possible changes in the management structure of the Communist Party; uncertainty reigned in the expert community. This was due to significant changes in internal party life, namely the strengthening of the personal power of General Secretary Xi Jinping and the confrontation between him and part of the party elite. Having come to power in 2012, Xi was faced with factionalism within the CCP, the presence of various influence groups, which seriously hampered his own line. Using his apparatus weight and the anti-corruption campaign he launched, Xi Jinping was able, firstly, to bring his supporters into power and create his own group of influence, and secondly, to weaken other clans.
In parallel, the image of Xi Jinping as the unquestioned authority leading the party and the nation forward was cultivated, which was reflected in the proclamation of Xi as the “core of the party” in 2016 and the inclusion of his ideas in the CPC charter at the last congress.
Thus, loyalty to Xi Jinping began to be interpreted not simply as following one of the top leaders, the first among equals, but much more broadly - Xi Jinping represents the general course of the party, and to contradict it means to oppose the entire Communist Party.
The inclusion of Xi Jinping's theory in the CPC charter cements his personal power; since the time of Mao Zedong, no CPC leader has wielded the power of unquestioned authority. Deng Xiaoping's theory was included in the CPC charter as a tribute to the former leader in 1997, while Xi Jinping's name was included in the charter while he was still in power. This gives Xi Jinping the necessary carte blanche to carry out structural reforms in the party apparatus, while also elevating him above factional infighting. During the previous five years in power, Xi found supporters among other clans, which significantly blurred the boundaries between the clans. The destruction of the old system of factionalism in the CCP was Xi Jinping's main achievement in party politics, which also influenced the composition of the new Standing Committee, which included people from different clans, but united by loyalty and strong ties to the general secretary.
In the formation of the new Standing Committee, it can be seen that preference was given primarily not to origin from one or another group, but to current loyalty and professionalism.
Li Zhanshu. Photo by REUTERS
Li Zhanshu began his career growth under Hu Jintao, during the previous five years he headed the Office of the CPC Central Committee and was responsible for daily document flow. Due to his duty, he was always close to Xi Jinping, Li was able to earn his trust. Having become a confidant of the Secretary General, Li Zhanshu was able to secure his place in the future PC. He is the most likely candidate to head the NPC to replace the outgoing Zhang Dejiang and will be in charge of legislative and administrative work.
Wang Yang. Photo by REUTERS
Wang Yang is the Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; in the new PC, he will probably be responsible for reforming the economy, as he is known as a supporter of the market course. His appointment to the PC signifies Xi Jinping’s commitment to deepening market reforms and reducing state participation in the economy, and a transition from state capitalism to the regulatory role of the state in the economy.
One of the most pressing problems facing China is the significant debts of local governments, whose credit ratings rested on confidence in the guarantees of the central government. These loans are used to support ineffective state-owned enterprises. The reforms launched in this area have led to the paralysis of local government; local leaders do not risk taking initiatives. At the same time, the local bureaucracy largely depends on state-owned enterprises and is in no hurry to reduce the presence of state participation in the economy. The personnel changes that took place in the highest echelons of the CPC government during the congress give Xi Jinping the opportunity to intensify market reforms in order to reduce the presence of the state in the economy.
Wang Huning. Photo by REUTERS
Wang Huning, who was the head of the Political Research Center of the CPC Central Committee, in addition to his appointment to the PC, also received the post of head of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee. For several decades, he was one of the developers of the ideological agenda for the party leadership, being one of the main ideologists during the periods of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao in power. Despite the fact that in the expert community he is classified as a member of the “Shanghai” clan, in the new PC Xi Jinping will entrust him with internal political and ideological work; as the head of the Secretariat of the Central Committee, he will also be responsible for carrying out internal political events. This trust is caused primarily by the high professionalism of Wang, who stood at the origins of many ideological programs of three generations of CPC leaders.
Zhao Leji. Photo by REUTERS
Zhao Leji, in addition to being appointed to the PC, also became head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CDIC), the all-powerful body through which Xi was able to put his party policies into practice. For Xi Jinping, this position is of great importance, so a person from the “Shaanxi” group close to him was appointed to it. Zhao has extensive experience in personnel work, having headed the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, which is responsible for personnel appointments of senior officials, for the previous five years. The Shaanxi group has become significantly stronger thanks to Xi Jinping, who was born and raised in this province, which explains the Shaanxi people’s devotion to the Secretary General. The appointment of a close person with experience in personnel policy gives Xi Jinping confidence in continuing the course he has begun to purge party cadres.
Han Zheng. Photo by REUTERS
Appointed to the PC, Han Zheng became the only one hundred percent representative of the “Shanghai” clan in the PC. Han began his career in the Shanghai City Center, which is unusual for China, and achieved significant success in running the city's economy. During his career, he enjoyed the favor of Jiang Zemin, being one of the main "Shanghaians" in power. Xi Jinping's trust in him stems from the anti-corruption campaign he carried out in Shanghai after the arrest of fellow Shanghainese Chen Liangyu, as well as his successful experience in managing major projects such as the 2010 Shanghai Expo. In the new PC, Han Zheng will be responsible for the day-to-day management of the economy.
If we consider the new composition of the PC from the point of view of clan affiliation in the classical sense, then the composition looks motley: Li Zhanshu and Zhao Leji were initially considered as Xi’s creatures, while Wang Huning and Han Zheng belonged to the “Shanghai” clan, and Wang Yang - to the Komsomol members. However, in the current conditions of internal party life, factional boundaries are erased, Xi Jinping’s name in the CPC charter places him above the factions, and disloyalty to him becomes a crime against the party. In addition, all new members of the PC worked with the Secretary General for a considerable time and earned his trust. Thus, the new composition of the PC can be called “Xijinping”, oriented towards the Secretary General.
In terms of professional experience, the new composition of the PC meets the goals put forward by Xi Jinping in his keynote speech. The party's official documents enshrined a new vision of the country's economic development, according to which the priority is not rapid economic growth, as in previous decades, but progressive, uniform development. Among the key goals of the party is the alignment of distortions in the economy that have appeared over decades of spontaneous development. This includes inequality in income of the population, inequality of regions in terms of wealth and level of development, excessive state presence in some sectors of the economy, and the inefficiency of the state machine in the rapidly developing Chinese society.
The next five years will be a time of structural reform and preparation for the transfer of power to the next generation of leaders. Contrary to established tradition, at the 19th CPC Congress, no members were elected to the PC who could be considered successors to the fifth generation of leaders. Another sign of the lack of a successor was the all-military Central Military Council (CMC). If there is a candidate for a successor to the Secretary General, he is usually appointed first deputy head of the Central Military Commission. The absence of such a person suggests that Xi has not decided on a candidate and will choose a new successor over the next five years.
A possible successor is Chen Min'er, who took his place after the resignation of the head of the Chongqing City Committee, Sun Zhengcai. He owes such a fast career entirely to the patronage of Xi Jinping. The appointment to the post of secretary of the Chongqing City Committee suggests that Xi is considering Chen as his possible successor. During the history of the PRC in recent decades, Chongqing has often become a testing ground for those aspiring to the highest positions in the state. However, changes are possible within five years, and who will become the next head of the CCP is still unclear. However, there is no doubt that even after leaving official posts, Xi Jinping will retain significant influence on the party leadership and the decisions it makes.
Anton Bugaenko, expert at the Institute of World Economy and Politics (IMEP) under the Foundation of the First President - Elbasy
The first plenum of the renewed Central Committee of the CPC, held on Wednesday, crowned the 19th Congress of the ruling party in the People's Republic of China, which has almost 90 million members.
It is the largest political party in the world, at the helm of a country with the largest population of more than 1.3 billion people. More than 2.3 thousand delegates and “specially invited persons” represented party organizations of provinces, autonomous regions and cities of central subordination, central party institutions, the army and the People's Armed Police (analogous to the internal troops).
The congress heard a report from the previous composition of the Central Committee, which was delivered by its General Secretary Xi Jinping, approved amendments to the charter, and elected a new composition of the Central Committee and the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Innovations in ceremonies
At the opening of the congress, journalists drew attention to an innovation - the red carpet along which the delegates walked to the stalls. Some of them stopped and in well-trained voices told selected representatives of the press about the affairs in their cities, towns and villages, about successes in production, combat training in units of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), about the situation on the cultural front. Journalists saw in this elements of a “political show.”
Finally, everyone took their seats, and after the performance of the PRC anthem, the opening of the congress was announced. In the front row of the presidium, along with the current leaders, were veterans - former general secretaries Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, heads of government Li Peng, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao. The oldest former member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo (SP PB) of the CPC Central Committee, Song Ping, was already 100 years old. This seating arrangement was clearly intended to indicate the continuity and political unity of the leading generations. The current generation - the fifth - took over the party and state helm in 2012 and now, one might say, has crossed the symbolic equator of its decade in power. However, not everyone managed to overcome this conditional point: in the PC PB, for example, only two of the seven who took over the shift at the last congress remained. Considerable progress has also taken place locally, as evidenced by new names on the lists of delegations from the regions.
However, retiring honorably after reaching the age of “over 67” is far from the worst option. The only missing former member of the PC PB who is currently living was the former Minister of Public Security and curator of the intelligence services, Zhou Yongkang, who is serving a life sentence for corruption and “divulging state secrets.”
Xi Jinping's report lasted three and a half hours. The speech of the head of the party and state was balanced; it covered all areas of party work - the economy, the social sphere, defense, foreign policy and internal party life. The Secretary General paid special attention to continuing the fight against corruption.
Changes in party theory
Xi Jinping announced the entry of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” into a new era. "The Party must unite all nationalities of the Chinese people, lead them to complete the construction of a moderately prosperous society, and win a great victory as we enter a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics," he said. The main contradiction of Chinese society at the new stage, the Secretary General noted, was “the contradiction between the constantly growing needs of the people for a wonderful life and the unevenness and incompleteness of development.” If you think about it, this finally removes the question of the class struggle in modern China, and the tasks of satisfying the “growing day by day” needs of the people, that is, economic tasks, are brought to the fore. In fact, we are also talking about inequality in the distribution of material wealth, which is fraught with discontent among those who consider themselves deprived. There are about 40 million people in China who are extremely poor, even according to official estimates.
“The prospects are brilliant, but the challenges are also very severe,” the speaker stated, outlining the internal and external situation.
New points in the theory and practice of the CPC, voiced in the report of the Central Committee, found expression in changes to the party charter. The position on Xi Jinping's ideas on a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics is included in the list of ideological foundations of the party's activities. There was also a place for the “One Belt, One Road” initiative (a modern version of the Great Silk Road), initiated by the President of the People’s Republic of China. Among other additions to the document, provisions were adopted on “absolute leadership” on the part of the party over the country’s armed forces.
Amendments to the founding document, as noted during the party congress, are designed to strengthen the authority of the center and legitimize the “strict management” of the CPC.
Plenum of the Central Committee as an apotheosis
More than two hundred participants in the plenum elected a Politburo (PB) of 25 people and its Standing Committee, after which the seven-member leadership synclite met with Chinese and foreign correspondents. The intrigue, despite some leaks, remained until the last moment. Observers made bets - who will appear on the platform under the red party banner? And how many will there be? After an agonizing wait that lasted more than two hours, the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and six of his colleagues on the new Standing Committee of the Politburo (SP PB) one after another walked onto the red carpet.
Seven men in sharp dark suits lined up in front of journalists against the backdrop of a huge panel of the Great Wall of China. They looked a little tired, which is understandable after a week-long party marathon, but at the same time they radiated truly Confucian calm and self-confidence.
It was immediately noticeable that Xi Jinping himself stood in the center, so that next to him were Premier Li Keqiang and the head of the Office of the CPC Central Committee, Li Zhanshu, who is tipped for the post of chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the legislative body, in March next year. In the Chinese "table of ranks" this is the second person. Observers believe that during the first Five-Year Plan, Xi Jinping, through key specialized working groups of the CPC Central Committee, took into his own hands the most important areas of financial and economic policy, thereby giving a more “technical” character to the activities of the prime minister and his cabinet.
Xi Jinping walked to the podium and gave a short speech: he outlined the country's prospects for the foreseeable period and introduced his comrades.
Who's new?
As expected, the 1st Plenum of the CPC Central Committee re-elected Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Central Committee and Chairman of its Military Council. In general, the personnel configuration in the highest party bodies - the Politburo and its Standing Committee - has noticeably updated.
Five of the seven members were replaced in the PB PC. Along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang, they included the head of the Shanghai Party Committee Han Zheng, the head of the Office of the Central Committee (analogous to the administration of the head of state) Li Zhanshu, Vice Premier of the State Council Wang Yang and a leading theoretician and ideologist of the party, head of the Center for Political Research Central Committee Wang Huning.
The head of the Organization Department of the Central Committee, Zhao Leji, moves to the post of secretary of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection - a kind of party intelligence service. He replaces in this position the former “chief Cerberus” in the fight against corruption, Wang Qishan, who retired due to old age.
Important appointments to this top seven will be made next March during the “two sessions” of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.
The question of a successor, who in the future should lead the next, “sixth generation” of Chinese leaders, remains unclear.
Roman Balandin, Andrey Kirillov
The Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo consists of 5 to 9 Politburo members appointed by the Central Committee. Meetings of the Standing Committee are held weekly, chaired by the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, and decisions are made based on consensus. The Standing Committee is effectively China's highest decision-making body.
Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee
The Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee is appointed by the meeting of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee. The Secretariat has great influence within the Communist Party. The main function of the secretariat is to resolve personnel issues in the party and state.
General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee
The General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee is elected at the plenum of the CPC Central Committee from among the members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee. The General Secretary also holds the posts of head of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee and head of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee. This is the highest post in the Chinese Communist Party. According to tradition, one person holds the posts of both the head of the Communist Party and the head of state - the Chairman of the PRC, and is also the chairman of the Central Military Councils of the PRC and the CPC, that is, he is the head of the armed forces.
CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
The CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is appointed by and reports exclusively to the CPC National Congress. The main task of the commission is to combat corruption and abuses within the Communist Party.
Local party committees
Each unit at the provincial, district, district and township levels has its own party committee. The committee is selected by the party congress of the relevant territorial unit and approved by the higher-level party committee. Thus, the CPC Central Committee, namely its Secretariat, is also in charge of appointments to local party positions.
The procedure for electing deputies to local party congresses is established by the local party committee and approved by a higher committee. Local party congresses are convened every five years. The term of office of local party committees is also five years. Plenums of local party committees are convened at least twice a year. Plenums of local party committees elect a Standing Committee of the local party committee, which operates between plenums.
Primary party organizations
Primary party organizations are created in all enterprises, villages, institutions, educational institutions, research institutes, residential areas, companies of the People's Liberation Army of China, wherever there are at least three members of the Communist Party. Depending on the number of party members in the primary organization, either the Primary Party Committee is elected, whose term of office is three or four years, or the bureau of the united cell of the primary party organizations, whose term of office is two or three years. Primary party committees and cell bureaus are elected at a general meeting of ordinary party members and approved by higher committees.
CCP leaders
The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are replaced every ten years, as the party charter does not allow one person to hold office for more than two five-year terms. Political scientists distinguish “Generations of Chinese Leaders”, each generation is the leader of China at the corresponding time and his team. The first generation is the people of Mao Zedong, the second is Deng Xiaoping, the third is Jiang Zemin, the fourth is Hu Jintao. At the XVIII CPC Congress, held from November 8 to 14, 2012, the fifth generation of PRC leaders was appointed to party positions.
General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee
The first plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2012 appointed Xi Jinping to the post of General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee.
Politburo of the CPC Central Committee
| Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee | ||||||
| Xi Jinping (习近平) | ||||||
| General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Chairman of the Military Council of the People's Republic of China | ||||||
 |  | |||||
| Li Keqiang | Zhang Dejiang | Yu Zhengsheng | ||||
| Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China | Chairman of the NPC Standing Committee | |||||
| Liu Yunshan | Wang Qishan | Zhang Gaoli | ||||
| Politburo of the CPC Central Committee - All members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, as well as: | ||||||
| Ma Kai | Wang Huning | Liu Yunshan | Liu Yandong | Liu Qibao | Xiu Qiliang | |
| Xun Chunlan | Xun Zhengcai | Li Jianguo | Li Yuanchao | Wang Yang | Zhang Chunxian | |
| Fan Changlong | Meng Jianzhu | Zhao Yueji | Li Zhanshu | Guo Jinlong | Han Zheng | |
: Zhōngguó Gòngchǎndǎng Zhōngyāng Zhèngzhìjú; abbr. Politburo of the CPC Central Committee; until 1927 - Central Bureau) - a special body of the Communist Party of China, supervising its activities and consisting of 19-25 members. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee includes the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, consisting of the most influential party members (usually the PC Politburo includes from 5 to 9 people). Members of the Politburo are appointed by the CPC Central Committee.
The power of the Politburo is unlimited, since all its members occupy leadership positions in government bodies of the PRC. In addition, some Politburo members occupy leadership positions in the provinces. The Politburo meets once a month, and the Politburo Standing Committee meets every week. The agenda of Politburo meetings is determined by the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, and decisions are made based on general consensus.
Current composition of the Politburo (18th convocation)
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Before the key event in the political calendar of China - the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will result in the election of a new composition of the country's de facto supreme authorities, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee and the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PCPB). The names of the people who will serve on the standing committee will tell a lot about China's political future for many years to come.
The PCPB is part of the Politburo and consists of the seven most influential members of the party, who occupy the highest government and party positions. Decisions in the standing committee are made on the basis of general consensus.
The current PCPB includes General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping, Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang, Chairman of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) Wang Qishan, First Vice Premier of the State Council Zhang Gaoli, member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee Liu Yunshan, Chairman of the National People's Committee Political Advisory Council Yu Zhengsheng, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC Standing Committee) Zhang Dejiang.
There are a lot of rumors and speculations around the upcoming congress on October 18, as well as around any other political event of a similar scale.
Analysts and journalists are asking whether the rule on the resignation of party leaders over 67 years of age will be respected, whether an obvious successor to Xi Jinping will be appointed, and whether the membership of the PCPB will be reduced to five people. It also remains unknown whether the current party leader will break the unspoken party rules and whether China will move from the model of collective government of the country to the rule of one person.
Classics of the genre
Congresses of the Communist Party are held every five years. As a rule, at such intermediate congresses as the current one, a significant change in the composition of the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee occurs. In addition, according to unspoken rules, successors to the party general secretary and prime minister are appointed at such congresses, who are to replace them in five years.
If everything goes according to established practice, then five of the seven current members of the PCPB except Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang should retire. The two youngest members to join the PCPB will be appointed as the future successors of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who will succeed them after 2022. The number of members of the PCPB will remain the same - seven people, three places in it will be distributed according to seniority. According to established tradition, the successors of the party general secretary and the prime minister must be no older than 57 years old in order to serve a minimum of five years in the PCPB and two more terms of five years in key positions.
Historically, the transfer of power in the Chinese Communist Party has been a complex process, with only 2002 and 2012 resembling an institutional process. In the past, former party leaders had great influence on the choice of a successor. Thus, Deng Xiaoping played a role in the selection of Hu Jintao as Jiang Zemin's successor, and Xi Jinping's candidacy was approved by Jiang Zemin. As a rule, the candidacy of the secretary general is chosen by his predecessor, and the current leader himself chooses the candidacy of the prime minister.
If this tradition continues, then Hu Jintao will choose Xi Jinping's successor, and Xi Jinping himself will be the candidate for prime minister. Although, some analysts argue that Hu Jintao is too weak and uninfluential a leader and is unlikely to play any role in appointing Xi Jinping's successor.
Potential candidates include the head of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, Hu Chunhua, and the head of the Chongqing City Party Committee, Chen Min'er. Another main contender was the former head of the Chongqing party committee, a rising star in China's political horizon, Sun Zhencai, who was expelled from the party on suspicion of violating party discipline on the eve of the congress.
Hu Chunhua, who has the best resume of any potential successor, is considered a protégé of Hu Jintao. He is already a Politburo member with experience in four different provinces.
Meanwhile, Chen Ming'er, who succeeded Sun Zhencai as Chongqing party committee, is seen as a protégé of Xi Jinping. He served as head of the Party's propaganda department when Xi Jinping headed the Party Committee of Zhejiang Province. It is for this reason that experts call Chen Min’er a “protégé” of the current Secretary General and predict that he will become the country’s prime minister in 2022.
According to the traditional scenario, Hu Chunhua and Chen Ming'er should be selected to the PCPB in order to receive the positions of general secretary and premier respectively in 2022. The remaining three seats must be filled by members from the Politburo on the basis of seniority. The main candidates for the remaining three seats are the head of the Shanghai Party Committee Han Zheng, the head of the propaganda department Liu Qibao, the head of the Central Committee Affairs Li Zhanshu, the head of the Organizing Committee of the Central Committee Zhao Leji and Vice Premier Wang Yang. According to analysts, Zhao Leji and Wang Yang are the youngest and therefore lose based on the principle of seniority. Thus, the standing committee could include: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Hu Chunhua, Chen Ming'er, Liu Qibao, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng.
Retirement age and the fate of the anti-corruption tsar
One of the most discussed issues in the press on the eve of the 19th Congress remains the fate of the head of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) Wang Qishan. Despite the fact that Wang Qishan is technically the sixth man in the CCP hierarchy, he is often called Xi Jinping's right hand, the second man in the country and the “anti-corruption czar”, who has played a decisive role in the fight against corruption at all levels, which has been so active in recent years.
Wang Qishan is one of the five members of the Politburo Standing Committee whose age is over 67, which, according to an unspoken rule that has not been broken since 2002, implies his retirement or transfer to some ceremonial post. However, Wang Qishan has become a central figure in the implementation of one of the most important campaigns in the country - combating internal party corruption, so his departure could slow down the progress that has gained impressive momentum in recent years.
At the same time, a number of analysts consider it illogical and reckless to focus the entire anti-corruption campaign on one person; in their opinion, it should be carried out regardless of who is at the head of the anti-corruption body.
Experts believe that Xi Jinping may break the unspoken “retirement age” rule in order to keep Wang Qishan in power. This could set a precedent for him if he wants to retain power beyond a second term in 2022, when he turns 69.
The successor dilemma and the path to a third term
It is worth noting that there is no clear rule governing the appointment of the next successor to the current leader. The number of members of the PCPB also changed. Over the years, it included from five to nine people.
Most analysts consider the “traditional” scenario to be unrealistic and believe that Xi Jinping is unlikely to allow outgoing party leaders to decide on his successor. There are reports in the press that the very tradition of appointing a successor may be broken, the composition of the PCPB will be narrowed, which will include only Xi Jinping’s trusted representatives, which will allow him to begin his second term with a team loyal to him.
In this situation, the PCPB could include Xi Jingping, Li Keqiang, Wang Qishan, as well as close associates of the Secretary General - the head of the affairs of the Central Committee, Li Zhanshu, and the head of the Organization Department of the Central Committee, Zhao Leji.
According to experts, such a scenario will de facto lead to the establishment of a “presidential form” of government, since the standing committee will no longer be a collective management body, but will become Xi Jingpying’s personal advisory council. In this case, he will be in a good position to retain power beyond 2022. If a potential successor is not named after the PCPB congress, it will be a clear signal that Xi Jinping plans to remain in power beyond 2022.
According to the Chinese Constitution, the chairman can only serve two terms of five years, but there are no such restrictions for the party leader, except that he cannot hold the position for life.
If Xi Jinping steps down as chairman of the country in 2023, but remains at the head of the party and the Central Military Commission, then his successor will be only a symbolic figure who will not have real power. He can also transfer powers to Chen Ming'er, but remain in the PCPB at a different rank, retaining real power.
No matter what scenario events take, it is clear that Xi Jinping has already consolidated enormous power in his hands. Last October, he was named the "core" of the party, a status that only Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin have been given, and which Hu Jintao has never had.
In addition, according to media reports, at the upcoming congress, the Communist Party Charter will be amended to include the ideological “thoughts of Xi Jinping,” which will compare him with Mao Zedong.
Men's club
The status of women in China, as well as throughout the world, has grown significantly in recent years; they are included in the lists of the country's richest residents, run corporations, and occupy prominent political positions. Women have even made it to senior positions in Taiwan and Hong Kong. However, the circle of the highest political elite on the Chinese mainland still includes only men.
The Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee has continued to be an exclusively men's club since its founding. Over the almost hundred-year history of the party, women have only been able to get into the Politburo, whose members are currently two women - Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Liu Yandong and the head of the United Front Department of the CPC Central Committee Sun Chunlan.
Both of them, albeit for different reasons, have virtually no chance of getting into the PC at the upcoming 19th Congress. Liu Yandong is already 71 years old and, although she is considered a fairly significant political figure, she does not qualify according to age. Sun Chunlan turned 67 this year and would be among the most powerful party officials in the country, but her position is not one that can be considered a good springboard into the PC.
A possible contender for entry into the Politburo was the former Minister of Justice of the People's Republic of China Wu Aiying, but in February of this year she was removed from her post, and by the decision of the 7th plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which ended on Saturday, she was expelled from the party due to with an investigation into her involvement in corruption crimes.
Seven women remain full members of the 18th CPC Central Committee with voting rights, but according to analysts at the upcoming congress, only the Chairman of the State Committee for Health and Planned Childbirth, Li Bin, has a chance of further promotion to the Politburo. Li Bin currently remains the only female minister in China.
There are 23 women candidates for membership in the Central Committee, some of whom have already been appointed to ceremonial positions, which automatically blocks their path to the top. At the same time, the vast majority of women in the Central Committee worked for years in the same province or in the same field, which means that their chances of quickly moving up the party career ladder are too small.
The most suitable position for joining the Politburo is considered to be the head of the party committee of a province or city under central subordination; at the moment there are no women in such positions in China.