Slide 2
- What do the words “Global financial crisis” mean?
2 There is no answer that everyone understands the same way. Version I. "Horror" scenario - Repetition of the "Great Depression of 1929-1932" Impossibility of making international payments: - A sharp drop in the exchange rate of the main international currency, the US dollar. Loss of trust in payments in dollars. - The inability to determine the exchange rates of dollar/euro, dollar/yen, dollar/pound sterling and cross rates between them all. - Distrust in banks due to the threat of their bankruptcy. Consequently, customers do not trust that banks will execute the requested payments on their accounts. - Technical collapse of the interbank payment system at the level of information technology. The scenario according to this version is extremely unlikely. It can become a reality only in the event of massive military operations involving the “old” financial centers.
Slide 3
- What is the “Global Financial Crisis?”
3 Version II. The “next crisis” scenario is being realized before our eyes: - A long 2-3 quarter decline in stock prices on the main stock markets (exchanges) in the “old” and “new” financial centers. - Decline in confidence in derivative exchange instruments. - Changing the “unipolar” monetary world (based on the US dollar) to a “multipolar” one (dollar, euro, yen, potentially yuan, ruble, etc.). Increased currency risks. - Defaults on the obligations of a number of large financial instruments and companies. Inability to refinance. - Recording of losses by many large financial institutions (banks) and investment funds. - Pumping liquidity by central banks to accelerate inflation. - Increase in loan rates for bank clients. The scenario is not catastrophic, not romantic. Against the backdrop of an economic recession, there is a transition to stagflation.
Slide 4
First conclusions for Russia
4 The Russian economy is part of the global economy. The economic cycle in Russia has been restored and coincides with the world one. Russia has already experienced the short-term consequences of the international financial crisis and will continue to experience long-term consequences. Version II of the international financial crisis requires thoughtful actions by the Russian elite to adapt to the conditions of the crisis and to overcome it. It makes no sense for the Russian elite to wait for further deterioration of the situation according to version I. It is necessary to come to an agreement with other “world players”. When version I is implemented, Russia will lose, together with all the “new” centers of power, more than the “old” centers of economic power will lose.
Slide 5
Globalization: Dynamics and waves of economic growth
5 Globalization of the economy is a product of the development of “high technologies”. Investment boom in leading countries of the world. High GDP growth rates. The technical basis of globalization is microelectronics and its “derivatives”: - microchips and microprocessors; - communication systems; - software; - Internet; - Informatics. The long "Kondratieff Wave" is a thirty-year period of economic growth from the recession and national stagflation of the late 1970s to the recovery of the 1980-1990s and the decline in growth rates of the 2000-2010s and international stagflation. Today's reality is a turning point from maximum to minimum economic growth rates - a recession on the wave of recession.
Slide 6
6 The slowdown in economic growth (low GDP growth rates) at the minimum stage of the “Kondratiev wave” can be protracted – 5-10 years. A recession is a period of searching for a new technological base for growth (maybe biotechnology, medicine, pharmaceuticals?). The way out of the recession is to apply already created investment financing instruments in the global financial system to new companies and new technologies. The Great Depression is unlikely. The decline in the “old” centers of economic growth - the USA, Japan, the European Union - is compensated by the development of electronic technologies in the “new” centers of growth - the BRIC and ASEAN countries.
Slide 7
Globalization: Conflict-driven economic growth environment
7 The dominance of the US economy, US GDP growth maintains the balance of today's globalization. The “diseases” of the US economy (recessions, balance of payments deficits, federal budget deficits) undermine stability. Government regulation remains national, but applies to global phenomena. Its effectiveness has decreased. Purely international regulation is advisory in nature (IMF, World Bank). The European Union is an obvious exception. Nation states ceded part of their national sovereignty to general bodies. Is it possible to repeat?
Slide 8
8 The international financial system is the engine of globalization. The financial system has been transferred to an international electronic system of communication, processing and storage of information. Financial institutions (banks, investment banks, investment funds) carry out transactions in all international and many national capital markets simultaneously. International liquidity exists in the form of national currencies: - US dollar - European Union - euro - Japanese yen. IMF's attempt to create an international unit of account - SDR - fails
Slide 9
Globalization and international stagflation
9 The volume of broad monetary circulation aggregates (M3, L) of national monetary units of key currencies (dollar, euro) exceeds the volume of the corresponding GDP. Speculative “bubbles” are ripening one by one on all stock markets. When one bursts, liquidity flows to other markets. Price instability in world trade. International equity markets are generating an influx of investment in promising technologies. A stock market crash deprives national economies of savings, investment sources and consumers. Productive exchange instruments (futures, options) increased the volume of financial “bubbles”. Assessing the risks of operations with them is not possible today for most investors. International stagflation is a slowdown in growth rates with a simultaneous unbalanced rise in prices.
Slide 10
Globalization and national interests
10 Russia today is part of the global economy: The foundations of a market economy were created in the period 1990-2000. Foreign economic relations have been liberalized: Export-import deliveries, foreign exchange transactions based on the convertible ruble. Capital movement: - short-term portfolio investments; - long-term strategic (direct) investments. A new “post-industrial” structure of the economy has been created. The share of the service sector is about 60% in Russia’s GDP. The path traveled by Russia from an agricultural, then an industrial, to today a post-industrial economy has been passed by most countries in the world.
Slide 11
Assessment of consequences (+) benefits (-) risks
11 Expanding the supply (market supply) of goods and services, overcoming shortages. The influx of capital bringing the introduction of modern technologies. Capital influx through IPO to expand production. Capital inflow, development of stock markets. Availability of credit resources. A market competitive infrastructure has been created in Russia and economic growth has been ensured in 2000-2007. with an average annual rate of about 7% GDP growth.
Slide 12
Impact assessment (-) risks (+) benefits
12 Strengthening the influence of global conditions on economic growth in Russia. A number of enterprises (companies) of traditional mechanical engineering cannot withstand competition and are losing the market. Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate as a factor of instability and risk. Capital flight - capital flight in the 1990s due to the high overall level of political and economic risks. The capitalization of joint stock companies in Russia is determined on the stock exchange, where > 50% of transactions are made from foreign money. The flow of “hot money” today affects the ruble exchange rate and the stock market decline. The general tightening of competition complicates the adoption of business decisions both in companies and at the government level.
Slide 13
Russia's national interest in the global economy.
13 The national interest is to firmly occupy the position of a “new” center of economic growth in the global world. To realize the national interest - to create an investment climate in Russia that is attractive for high technologies: electronic, information, biotechnology, environmental protection. Ensure high competitiveness in world markets. Today is the second attempt - the planned economy of the USSR could not solve this problem; - it needs to be solved on the basis of the Russian market economy.
Slide 14
14 Positive prerequisites: - globalization of the world economy; - market reform; - restructuring of the economy; - economic growth 2000 – 2007 Negative preconditions: - historically “new” centers of economic growth - the USSR, Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa - often lost their growth dynamics; - there is no guarantee of automatic growth; - the global environment is conflicting; - “closed economy” syndrome and fear of global competition in the economy.
Slide 15
2008 The choice again: Paths of development. How to ensure national interests?
15 Strategy Increasing the “controllability” of the economy due to greater closure Tactics How to isolate yourself from international risks? Strategy Increasing the efficiency of business and public administration Tactics How to win the competition in the domestic and global markets? The choice must be made based on the study of globalization. Knowledge versus emotion.
Slide 16
Globalization and national egoisms
16 Without participation in the international economic environment there is no national development. Openness to the influence of the global economy is fraught with periodic growth crises. All the “new” centers of economic power - the BRICs - are not centers of unification; political unions remain old. Strengthening calls for selective protectionism in the “old” centers - the USA, Japan, the European Union. In fact, the impossibility of uniform rules of the game for completely different players is recognized. Political union turned out to be a necessary prerequisite for obtaining an “entry ticket” to the economic union.
Slide 17
2008 The choice again: How to get rid of national myths?
17 Myth I: All world players, when making a decision, want to either harm or help Russia. Reality: Russia occupies a modest place in the global economy (≈ 3% of global GDP) and is critical only as a supplier of natural gas to the European Union (≈ 60% supplied). There is no influence on the international financial market. Attention to Russian problems is low. Myth II: Russia is a rich country and self-sufficient in resources, it can live without international economic ties. Reality: Russia's economic development GDP per capita is somewhere between Malaysia and Brazil - an average level of development. The deficit economy and stagnation in the USSR are the results of its closedness.
Slide 18
18 Myth III: There is more money in Russia than is needed. The main thing is to divide them fairly and urgently invest them in the Russian economy, or better yet, distribute them to the citizens of the country. Reality: In all sectors of economic infrastructure, investments of 100-150 billion dollars are required in each over 5 years. The entire Stabilization Fund is only about 120 billion dollars. When dividing equally all income from oil and gas supplies, this amounts to about 150 dollars per person per year. Myth IV: By concluding alliances with close to us, nationally oriented countries (China, India, Iran, Belarus, Venezuela) Russia will be able to resist Globalization and, first of all, the influence of the United States. Reality: A similar idea was voiced by E.M. Primakov in 1999 and sharply rejected by India and China. After that, they increased interaction with the United States. “New” centers and nationally oriented countries are looking for a path not of confrontation, but of cooperation with the “old” ones.
Slide 19
2008 The choice again: How to ensure national interests?
19 It is necessary to recognize the realities of today's world. Globalization is conflictual, but it is “a reality given to us in sensation.” We must learn to live in it. Russia does not have “immunity” to the influence of global challenges. Globalization is conflict-ridden; Russia alone will not win these conflicts. We need to find solid allies among the “old” centers of power, otherwise the “new” ones will find them before Russia and at its expense. Russia needs increased domestic and foreign investment. You have to love investors. It is stupid to conflict and scold them. If it is impossible to use the benefits of globalization alone, it is necessary to enter into political alliances either with the European Union and, through it, with the United States, or with the United States directly. Russia in 2008 must again choose the path of development. The economic growth crisis in the global economy leaves Russia with less and less time to choose. The global strategic threat to Russia lies south of its borders. The threat of extremists seizing Central Asia and reaching the border with the North Caucasus. We cannot afford to be left without allies.
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Globalization is a process during which the world is transformed into a single global system. The issue of globalization became very relevant in the 1990s, although various aspects of this process have been seriously discussed by scientists since the 1990s.
Write down: Globalization of the world economy is the transformation of the world space into a single zone where information, goods and services, capital move freely, where ideas spread freely and their bearers move freely, stimulating the development of modern institutions and debugging the mechanisms of their interaction.
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Firstly, globalization is caused by objective factors of world development, the deepening of the international division of labor, scientific and technological progress in the field of transport and communications, reducing the so-called economic distance between countries. Allowing you to receive the necessary information from anywhere on the planet in real time and quickly make decisions, modern telecommunications systems unprecedentedly facilitate the organization of international capital investment, cooperation in production and marketing. In the conditions of information integration of the world, the transfer of technology and the borrowing of foreign business experience are much faster. The prerequisites are emerging for the globalization of processes that until now remained local by their very nature, for example, obtaining higher education far from the best educational centers in the world. Firstly, globalization is caused by objective factors of world development, the deepening of the international division of labor, scientific and technological progress in the field of transport and communications, reducing the so-called economic distance between countries. Allowing you to receive the necessary information from anywhere on the planet in real time and quickly make decisions, modern telecommunications systems unprecedentedly facilitate the organization of international capital investment, cooperation in production and marketing. In the conditions of information integration of the world, the transfer of technology and the borrowing of foreign business experience are much faster. The prerequisites are emerging for the globalization of processes that until now remained local by their very nature, for example, obtaining higher education far from the best educational centers in the world.
The second source of globalization is trade liberalization and other forms of economic liberalization, which have caused restrictions on protectionist policies and made world trade freer. As a result, tariffs were significantly reduced and many other barriers to trade in goods and services were eliminated. Other liberalization measures led to increased movement of capital and other factors of production. The second source of globalization is trade liberalization and other forms of economic liberalization, which have caused restrictions on protectionist policies and made world trade freer. As a result, tariffs were significantly reduced and many other barriers to trade in goods and services were eliminated. Other liberalization measures led to increased movement of capital and other factors of production.
The third source of the internationalization process and one of the main sources of globalization was the phenomenon of transnationalization, within which a certain share of production, consumption, exports, imports and income of a country depends on the decisions of international centers outside the borders of a given state. The leading forces here are transnational companies (TNCs), which themselves are both the result and the main protagonists of internationalization. The third source of the internationalization process and one of the main sources of globalization was the phenomenon of transnationalization, within which a certain share of production, consumption, exports, imports and income of a country depends on the decisions of international centers outside the borders of a given state. The leading forces here are transnational companies (TNCs), which themselves are both the result and the main protagonists of internationalization. Globalization affects the economies of all countries. It affects the production of goods and services, the use of labor, investment, technology and their diffusion from one country to another. All this ultimately affects production efficiency, labor productivity and competitiveness. It is globalization that has intensified international competition. Globalization affects the economies of all countries. It affects the production of goods and services, the use of labor, investment, technology and their diffusion from one country to another. All this ultimately affects production efficiency, labor productivity and competitiveness. It is globalization that has intensified international competition.
The process of globalization of the economy has accelerated in recent decades, when various markets, in particular for capital, technology and goods, and to a certain extent also for labor, have become increasingly interconnected and integrated into a multi-layered network of TNCs. Although a certain number of TNCs operate in the traditional trading sector, in general international firms advocate industrial restructuring in many developing countries through the creation of new industries, in particular, automobile, petrochemical, engineering, electronics, etc., and the modernization of traditional ones, including textiles and food.
International Modern transnational corporations (they are also called global corporations), unlike previous production-type TNCs, operate primarily in the information and financial markets. A planetary unification of these markets is taking place, and a single global financial and information space is being formed. Accordingly, the role of TNCs and supranational economic structures and organizations closely associated with them is increasing (such as the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Finance Corporation, etc.). Currently, 80% of the latest technologies are created by TNCs, whose income in some cases exceeds the gross national income of individual, fairly large countries. Suffice it to say that in the list of the 100 largest economies in the world, 51 positions are occupied by TNCs. Moreover, the scope of activity of a significant part of them is related to the development of hyper-technologies (or meta-technologies), which include network computers, the latest computer programs, organizational technologies, technologies for forming public opinion and mass consciousness, etc. It is the developers and owners of such technologies that control financial markets today and determine the shape of the global economy. Approximately 1/5 of the income of industrialized countries and 1/3 of developing countries is directly dependent on exports. Globally, it is estimated that 40-45% of employment in manufacturing and approximately 10-12% in services are directly or indirectly linked to foreign trade, which remains the main means of redistributing global income.
Several aspects of the impact of globalization on national economies deserve special mention: First of all, we note the extremely high growth rates of foreign direct investment, far exceeding the growth rates of world trade. These investments play a key role in technology transfer, industrial restructuring, and the formation of global enterprises, which have a direct impact on the national economy. The second aspect concerns the impact on technological innovation. New technologies, as already noted, are one of the driving forces of globalization, but it, in turn, increasing competition, stimulates their further development and spread among countries. Finally, as a result of globalization, there is an increase in trade in services, including financial, legal, management, information and all types of “invisible” services, which are becoming the main factor in international trade relations. If in 1970 less than 1/3 of foreign direct investment was associated with the export of services, now this share has increased to 50%, with intellectual capital becoming the most important product on the world market. The result of the deepening internationalization process is the interdependence and interaction of national economies. This can be perceived and interpreted as the integration of states into a structure close to a single international economic system. Although the bulk of global output is consumed in producing countries, national development is increasingly linked to global structures and is becoming more multifaceted and diverse than it was in the past.
The process of globalization is taking place in a highly polarized world system in terms of economic power and opportunity. This situation is a potential source of risks, problems and conflicts. A few leading countries control a significant portion of production and consumption without even resorting to political or economic pressure. Their internal priorities and value guidelines leave their mark on all major areas of internationalization. The overwhelming majority (85-90%) of all TNCs are based in developed countries, but in recent years such corporations have also begun to be created in developing countries. By the end of the 1990s. there were about 4.2 thousand Latin American and East Asian TNCs and several hundred TNCs in European countries in transition. Among the fifty largest TNCs in developing countries, eight belong to South Korea, the same number to China, seven to Mexico, six to Brazil, four each to Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, three to Malaysia and one each to Thailand, the Philippines and Chile. Young transnational corporations of these countries, such as the South Korean Daewoo and Samsung, the Chinese China Chemicals, the Taiwanese Ta-tung, the Mexican Chemex, the Brazilian Petroleo Brasilero and others, are vigorously fighting for their place in the global market.
Nation states increasingly have to reckon with TNCs as powerful partners, and sometimes rivals, in the struggle for influence on the national economy. Agreements between TNCs and national governments on the terms of such cooperation became the rule. Broader prospects have also opened up for non-governmental organizations that, as in the case of global firms, have reached the multinational or global level. Even international organizations such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and WTO began to play a new global role. Thus, multinational enterprises and other organizations, both private and public, have become major players in the global economy.
The fifth source lies in the peculiarities of cultural development. We are talking about the tendency to form globalized homogeneous media, art, pop culture, and the widespread use of English as a universal means of communication. It is worth mentioning one more important feature of the globalization of the world economy: the rapid development of financial markets in the last years of the 20th century. The new role of financial markets (currency, stock, credit) in recent years has dramatically changed the architecture of the world economy. Just a few decades ago, the main goal of financial markets was to ensure the functioning of the real sector of the economy. In recent years, the global financial market has begun to show self-sufficiency. As a result, today we see a significant increase in the volume of this market, which was the result of a wide range of speculative transactions caused by the liberalization of economic relations. In a word, the process of obtaining money from money has been significantly simplified by excluding from it the actual production of any goods or services. Production was replaced by speculative transactions with various derivative financial instruments, such as futures and options, as well as gambling on differences in world currency rates.
This is the most complex and most advanced process in terms of internationalization, resulting from the deepening of financial ties between countries, liberalization of prices and investment flows, and the creation of global transnational financial groups. In terms of growth rates, the volume of loans on the international capital market in previous years exceeded the volume of foreign trade by 60% and the gross world product by 130%. The number of international investor organizations is increasing. The globalization of finance is often seen as the reason for the growth of speculation and the diversion of capital from production and the creation of new jobs for speculative purposes. The process of financial globalization is concentrated primarily in three main centers of the world economy: the USA, Western Europe and Japan. Financial speculation goes far beyond the boundaries of this triad. Global turnover in the foreign exchange market reaches 0.9-1.1 trillion every day. dollars. The influx of speculative capital can not only exceed the needs of a particular country, but also destabilize its position. The rapid globalization of finance remains the most important reason for the vulnerability of the world economy. The integration of financial markets increases the risk of systemic failures.
All of the above allows us to note a number of advantages from the globalization process: globalization has caused an intensification of international competition. Competition and market expansion lead to deepening specialization and international division of labor, which in turn stimulate production growth not only at the national but also at the global level; Another advantage of globalization is economies of scale, which can potentially lead to cost reductions and lower prices, and therefore sustainable economic growth; the benefits of globalization are also associated with the gains from trade on a mutually beneficial basis, satisfying all parties, which can be individuals, firms and other organizations, countries, trade unions and even entire continents; globalization can lead to increased productivity as a result of the rationalization of global production and the spread of advanced technology, as well as competitive pressure for continued innovation on a global scale. In general, the benefits of globalization allow all partners to improve their situation, having the opportunity, by increasing production, to raise wages and living standards.
Globalization not only brings with it benefits, it is fraught with negative consequences or potential problems, which some of its critics see as great dangers. The first threat posed by globalization is that its benefits, while understood by people, will, however, be unevenly distributed. In the short term, as is known, changes in the manufacturing and service industries lead to the fact that industries benefiting from foreign trade and industries related to exports experience a greater influx of capital and skilled labor. At the same time, a number of industries are significantly losing from globalization processes, losing their competitive advantages due to increased market openness. Such industries are forced to make additional efforts to adapt to economic conditions that have changed and are not in their favor. This means the possibility of an outflow of capital and labor from these industries, which will be the main reason for taking adaptation measures, which are associated with very high costs. Adaptation measures are fraught for people with job loss, the need to find another job, retraining, which leads not only to family problems, but also requires large social expenses, and in a short time. Eventually there will be a reallocation of labor, but initially the social costs will be very high. This does not only apply to industries that have undergone significant transformation in Europe over the past thirty years. It should be recognized that such changes pose a serious threat to the existing economic structure, and governments must take on the heavy burden of social costs associated with paying compensation, retraining, paying unemployment benefits, and providing support to low-income families.
The second threat is considered by many to be the deindustrialization of the economy, since global openness is associated with a decline in employment in manufacturing industries in both Europe and the United States. In fact, however, this process is not a consequence of globalization, although it occurs in parallel with it. Deindustrialization is a normal phenomenon generated by technological progress and economic development. Indeed, the share of manufacturing industries in the economies of industrialized countries is declining sharply, but this decline is balanced by the rapid growth in the share of the service sector, including the financial sector. The next threat that globalization poses is associated with a noticeable increase in the gap between the wages of qualified and less qualified workers, as well as with the increase in unemployment among the latter. Today, however, this is not necessarily a consequence of the intensification of international trade. More important is the fact that the demand for qualified personnel in industries and enterprises is increasing. This is due to the fact that competition from labor-intensive goods produced in countries with low wages and low qualifications of workers entails lower prices for similar products of European firms and a reduction in their profits. In such conditions, European companies stop producing unprofitable products and move to the production of goods that require the use of highly qualified personnel. As a result, workers with lower qualifications remain unclaimed and their incomes fall. The fourth threat is the transfer by firms in countries with high labor costs of part of their production capacity to countries with low wages. Exporting jobs may be undesirable for the economies of a number of countries. However, such a threat is not too dangerous.
The fifth threat is associated with labor mobility. Today there is a lot of talk about the free exchange of goods, services and capital and much less about the freedom of movement of labor. This raises the question of the impact of globalization on employment. In the absence of adequate measures, the problem of unemployment can become a potential source of global instability. The waste of human resources in the form of unemployment or underemployment is the main loss of the world community as a whole, and especially of some countries that spent a lot of money on education. High unemployment in the mid-1990s. signals the presence of major structural problems and policy mistakes within the global economy. These factors highlight the need for effective change management at all levels, especially in areas that directly affect the human condition. In particular, the question of whether international migration can help solve problems of employment and poverty is controversial. Today, labor markets are much less internationalized than commodity or capital markets. Globalization, with its profound economic, technological and social transformations, will undoubtedly impact the world ecosystem. And this is a typical problem of universal human security. Until now, the blame for overall environmental damage is placed on developed countries, although they still cause the main harm to themselves. There are several sources of future conflicts that will arise in connection with the use of the ecosystem. The struggle for water resources is likely to result in acute regional conflicts. The future of tropical forests and the consequences of deforestation are already a source of deep contention between states due to diverging interests and political goals. In general, the world can no longer afford to waste resources thoughtlessly, causing irreparable harm to the environment.
Mass urbanization associated with global demographic, technological and structural changes can also become an important source of tension and conflict. Cities are already becoming key elements of society across countries and the world as a whole, as well as the main channels for the spread of the influence of globalization for a number of reasons. First, the supply of food and energy to cities in many countries depends not on local sources, but on imported resources. Further, cities are the main centers of global standardization of consumption and cultures. These are also where transnational companies operate most actively. Urbanization is likely to intensify the process of globalization, and cooperation between large cities, politically and institutionally, will become a new area of international relations.
Globalization deepens, expands and accelerates worldwide interconnections and interdependencies in all spheres of today's social life. As we see, globalization on a global scale has both positive and negative sides, but this is an objective process to which all subjects of international life must adapt.
PLAN:
1. Concept, main features and conditions of developmentintegration
2. Forms and stages of integration processes
3. Consequences and effects of integration for
economic development of participating countries
4. Modern integration groups
5. Globalization of the world economy: essence,
reasons, factors
6. Consequences of globalization of the world economy
1. Concept, main features and conditions for the development of integration
The development and deepening of MRI makesobjectively necessary creation
deep and sustainable relationships
between national economies. International economic integration is a process of economic and political
unification of countries based on development
deep sustainable relationships and
division of labor between national
farms, the interaction of their economies
at different levels and in different
forms. Currently in the global economy
There are two trends at work.
On the one hand, the integrity of the global
economy, its globalization, which is caused by the development
economic relations between countries,
liberalization of trade, creation of modern
communication and information systems, world
technical standards and norms.
On the other hand, economic convergence is taking place
and interaction between countries at the regional level,
large regional integration organizations are being formed
structures - developing towards the creation
relatively independent centers of the world
farms.
Factors determining integration processes:
globalization of economic life;deepening international division
labor;
a scientific and technological revolution that is global in nature;
increasing the openness of national
economics.. Signs of integration:
removing restrictions;
interpenetration of industrial
systems;
harmonization of legislation and standards;
interstate (supranational)
organs;
Single currency;
unified infrastructure;
unified foreign trade policy;
internal policy coordination
(economic, social, etc.).
Conditions for creating integration groups:
1. Proximity of levels of economic development anddegree of market maturity of economies
integrating countries.
2. Geographical proximity of the integrating countries,
the presence of a common border and historically
existing economic ties.
3. The commonality of economic and other problems,
development challenges facing countries,
financing, economic regulation. 4. Demonstration effect. In countries,
who created integration associations,
Positive changes usually occur
(acceleration of economic growth,
reduction in inflation, growth in employment, etc.), which
has a certain psychological
impact on other countries.
5. "Domino effect." After the majority
countries of a particular region have become members
integration association, the rest
countries remaining outside its borders
experiencing some difficulties related to
reorientation of economic ties between countries,
members of the group against each other.
Main goals of integration:
1. Taking advantage of the economyscale.
2.Creation of a favorable foreign policy
environment.
3. Solving trade policy problems.
4. Promoting structural restructuring of the economy.
5.Support for young national industries
industry.
2. Forms and stages of integration processes
Table 1. STAGES OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTINTEGRATION
Stages
1. Free zone
trade
Essence
Cancellation of customs duties in
trade between countries -
participants in the integration
factions
Examples
EEC in 1958–1968
EFTA since 1960
NAFTA since 1988
MERCOSUR since 1991
2. Customs union
Unification of customs
duties on third parties
countries
Liberalization of the movement
resources (capital, labor
forces, etc.) between countries participating in the integration
factions
Coordination and unification
domestic economic policy
participating countries, including
transition to a single currency
EEC in 1968–1986
MERCOSUR since 1996
Carrying out a unified external
politicians
No examples yet
3. Common market
4. Economic Union
5. Political union
EEC in 1987–1992
EU since 1993
Basic models in global integration processes:
models of political-economic integration (withtaking into account social aspects): EU, Andean group,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), etc.;
models of trade and economic cooperation:
European Free Trade Association
(EFTA), North American Integration (NAFTA),
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
etc.;
models of political alliances and military blocs:
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), Organization of African Unity (OAU)
and etc. Examples of international integration associations:
1. European Union (EU). Created in 1992. Currently in the EU
includes 28 states: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Great Britain,
Hungary, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus,
Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France,
Czech Republic, Croatia, Sweden and Estonia.
2. European Free Trade Association - EFTA. Created in
1960 Includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland.
3. Association of Southeast Asian Nations - ASEAN. Created in
1967 It includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand,
Philippines, Brunei. Since July 1997, Burma, Laos and
Cambodia.
4. MERCOSUR - common market of the Southern Cone countries, created in 1991
countries of South America. This organization includes Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay.
5. North American Free Trade Association - NAFTA.
Includes USA, Mexico, Canada. Created in 1992.
3. Consequences and effects of integration for the economic development of participating countries
Integration effects:
static -dynamic -
determine economic
consequences
international integration,
received
immediately after
implementation
activities for
economic consolidation
two or more countries.
evaluate
economic
consequences
international
integration on
perspective,
manifesting itself for more
late stages
functioning
customs union. Advantages of economic
integrations:
increase in market size - manifestation
economies of scale of production;
competition between countries is increasing;
better conditions are provided
trade;
expansion of trade in parallel with
improving infrastructure;
dissemination of new technologies. Negative consequences
economic integration:
there is an outflow of resources (factors
production) from more backward countries to
to the benefit of stronger participating states
groups;
oligopolistic collusion between TNCs of participating countries, which helps to increase
prices for goods;
scaling-up effect
production.
4. Modern integration groups
North American Free Trade Agreementtrade (NAFTA, English North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - an agreement on
free trade between Canada, USA and
Mexico, based on the model
European Community (European
union). The NAFTA agreement entered into force on 1
January 1994. The main purpose of NAFTA was
removing barriers to trade in goods between
participating countries. So, for the period 1993–
2000 mutual trade turnover between the USA and Canada
increased from 197 billion dollars to 408 billion.
dollars, trade turnover between the USA and Mexico –
from 80.5 billion dollars to 247.6 billion. Noticeable
American direct investment increased
in Canada and Mexico, export of services from the USA
(especially financial). The level has decreased
illegal immigration. American
companies have gained advantages over
foreign competitors in “service”
Canadian and Mexican markets. MERCOSUR - common market of countries
South America. MERCOSUR
unites 250 million people or more
75% of the continent's total GDP. IN
it includes Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela (from July
2006 the entry procedure began,
meanwhile until now
parliaments of not all members of the union
gave their consent to accept
Venezuela as a member), and as
associate members - Chile,
Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. European Free Association
trade (EFTA, English European Free
Trade Association, EFTA) was created in
1960 to create a zone
free trade, initial
members were Great Britain, Denmark,
Norway, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland
and Portugal. Finland has become
associate member in 1961 (in
In 1986 it became a full-fledged
member), and Iceland became a member
EFTA in 1970. Liechtenstein
joined in 1991.
UK (1972), Denmark (1972),
Portugal (1986), Finland (1995),
Austria (1995), and Sweden (1995) came out
from EFTA and became members of the EU. Today
only Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
and Liechtenstein remain members
EFTA. Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(English Association of SouthEast Asian Nations)
– political, economic and
cultural regional
intergovernmental organization of countries
located in Southeast Asia.
ASEAN was formed on August 9, 1967 in
Bangkok along with the signing
"ASEAN Declaration". Directly
constituent states were
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and
Philippines. Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar later joined.
Cambodia. At the moment, the status
Papua New Guinea has an observer. IN
2002 application for status
observer filed by East Timor.
The population of ASEAN member countries is
about 500 million people, total area 4.5
million km2, their total GDP reaches
about 737 billion US dollars. Eurasian Economic Union (abbr. EAEU) - international
integration economic association (union), agreement on the creation
which was signed on May 29, 2014 and entered into force on January 1, 2015
of the year.
The EAEU was created for the purpose of comprehensive modernization, cooperation and
increasing the competitiveness of national economies and creating
conditions for sustainable development in the interests of increasing living standards
population level of the Member States.
The member states of the Eurasian Economic Union are
Republic of Armenia, Republic of Belarus, Republic of Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic and Russian Federation. Aimed at regional integration,
The union was legally secured
Maastricht Treaty in 1993
principles of the European Communities. WITH
five hundred million inhabitants EU share
as a whole in global gross domestic
product accounted for about 23% in 2012
($16.6 trillion) at nominal value and
about 19% ($16.1 trillion) - at parity
purchasing power. The Union is the largest exporter and the largest
importer of goods and services, as well as
the most important trading partner of several
large countries such as China
and India. Unemployment rate in April
2010 was 9.7%, while
the investment level was 18.4% of
GDP, inflation - 1.5%, deficit
state budget (-0.2%). Per capita income level
varies from state to state and
is in the range from 7 to 78 thousand $. Modern integration processes
manifest themselves in the creation of often informal
associations such as interstate
Asia-Pacific Economic Forum
cooperation (APEC), group of five
fast growing economies of the BRICS world
(new growth centers), interregional
Organization for Democracy and Economic
Development (GUAM), Shanghai Organization
cooperation (SCO), etc. Organization for Democracy and
economic development - GUAM regional organization,
created in 1997 (charter
organization signed in 2001,
charter - in 2006) by the republics of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Moldova (from 1999 to 2005 in
the organization also included
Uzbekistan). Name of the organization
formed from the first letters of the names
countries included in it. Before release
Uzbekistan from the organization
was called GUUAM. Asia-Pacific Economic
cooperation (APEC) (November 7, 1989)
- a forum of 21 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for
cooperation in the field of regional
trade and facilitation and liberalization
capital investments. APEC's goal
is to increase economic
growth and prosperity in the region and
strengthening the Asia-Pacific
communities.
The group included Australia, Brunei,
Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Republic
Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, USA,
Hong Kong, People's Republic of China,
Mexico, Papua New Guinea, Chile,
Peru, Russia, Vietnam.
About 40% live in member countries
world population, they account for
approximately 54% of GDP and 44%
world trade. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) -
regional international organization,
founded in 2001 by the leaders of China, Russia,
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Behind
with the exception of Uzbekistan, other countries
were members of the “Shanghai Five”,
founded as a result of the signing in 1996-1997.
between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Russia and
Tajikistan agreements on confidence-building in
military field and mutual reduction
armed forces in the border area.
The total territory of the SCO countries is
30 million km², that is, 60% of the territory of Eurasia. General
The population of the SCO countries is 1 billion.
455 million people (2007)[(fourth part
population of the planet[).
The SCO is not a military bloc or an open one
regular safety meeting, and takes
intermediate position.[The main tasks
organizations proclaimed strengthening stability
and safety over a wide area,
uniting member states, the fight against
terrorism, separatism, extremism, development
economic cooperation, energy
partnership, scientific and cultural interaction. BRICS (eng. BRICS) - a group of
five fast growing
countries: Brazil, Russia, India,
China, South Africa
Republic. Until 2011
towards the organization
abbreviation used
BRIC. In connection with the accession
South Africa to BRIC February 18, 2011
years, from now on the group
became known as BRICS.
This advantageous position
countries ensures availability
a large number of important
global resource economy.
Share of BRIC countries
accounts for 26% of the world's land mass,
42% of the population and 14.6%
world GDP. Rice. 1. Ten largest economies in the world by 2050, by nominal GDP
(billions of dollars), according to Goldman Sachs. An important place in the process of economic rapprochement
also occupied by associations of countries producing and exporting raw materials, among
of which the Organization occupies a special place
oil producers and exporters (OPEC), and
also free economic zones (FEZ). Associations of producing countries were created
developing countries with a view to
confrontation with powerful TNCs that carried out
policy of low prices for raw materials. Right to them
education was confirmed by resolutions
UN General Assembly.
Free economic zones are created in
states belonging to various
regional economic associations.
The most characteristic feature of these zones is the virtual absence of any restrictions.
on the activities of foreign capital, and before
in total, for the transfer of profits and capital. Approximately 1/5 of the income of industrialized countries and
1/3 of developing countries are directly dependent on
export. It is estimated that 40-45% of those employed in the world are
manufacturing industry and approximately 1012% in the service sector are directly or indirectly related
with foreign trade, which remains the main
a means of redistributing world income. Currently 80% of the latest technology
TNCs are created, the income of which in some cases
exceed the gross national income of the individual,
quite large countries. Suffice it to say that in
list of 100 largest economies in the world 51 positions
occupied by TNCs. Moreover, the scope of activity
a significant part of them is related to the development
hypertechnologies (or metatechnologies), to which
include network computers, the latest
computer programs, organizational
technologies, formation technologies
public opinion and mass consciousness, etc.52. Questions for Seminar 11:
1. Essence, prerequisites, goals of international
economic integration.
2. Forms and stages of international economic
integration.
3. Economic effects and consequences
integration for participating countries.
4. Modern integration groups.
5. Theories of international economic
integration.
6. Ukraine and Russia in integration processes.
7. Essence, causes and factors of globalization
world economy.
8. Advantages and threats of globalization.
9. Directions for solving global problems.
Slide 2
In the early 80s. XX century American sociologist John Naisbit identified new trends in world development: the transition from an industrial society to an information society; from the development of technology - to the development of high technologies; from a closed national economy to an open world economy; from short-term tasks of development planning and programming - to setting long-term strategic goals; from trends of centralization - to decentralization; from hierarchical to network type of organization of social and political space; from alternative choice (according to the “either-or” principle) to diversity of choice; from the developed North to the developing South.
Slide 3
Globalization is understood as the expansion and deepening of social connections and institutions in space and time in such a way that: on the one hand, the daily activities of people are increasingly influenced by events occurring in other parts of the globe, on the other hand, the actions of local communities can actually have global, planetary consequences
Slide 4
The American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein understood globalization as something that started in the 15th-16th centuries. the process of formation of the world capitalist system, covering connections between the center (Western Europe) and the periphery (colonial and dependent countries)
Slide 5
British scientist Anthony Giddens attributed the beginning of globalization to at least the period of the industrial revolution and colonial expansion of the 18th century.
Slide 6
Globalization
Globalization is a sharply increased mutual influence and interdependence of peoples and states, extending to all spheres of public life (economic, social, political, spiritual, cultural). Goods, capital, people, knowledge, ideas, as well as crime, weapons, examples of mass culture, etc., began to easily cross state-territorial borders. Transnational network organizations, social movements and relationships have penetrated almost all spheres of human activity.
Slide 7
Globalization of the economy
Globalization covers different spheres of society. The global economy began to take shape in the 70s and 80s. XX century Trends: Within the framework of the global economy, there is an increasingly clear tendency towards the division of labor not on a regional or national scale, but on a truly planetary scale (cars and their parts). The dominance of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the global economy. The largest TNCs have their enterprises and branches literally all over the world. The choice of production location is influenced by many components: qualifications and cost of labor, level of economic security, features of financial policy in certain countries and regions (tax policy, investment climate, etc.). There are institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and other financial organizations whose field of activity is the entire planet. Globalization has also spread to financial markets. The discount rates set in New York and London determine world exchange rates. Under the influence of globalization processes, integration processes in the world economy are intensifying (for example, the European Union - the euro, the issue of adopting the Constitution)
Slide 8
Multidimensionality of globalization processes
A characteristic feature of modern globalization processes is their spread to all new areas of activity: technological, organizational, administrative, legal, etc., as well as the constant development of trends towards establishing relationships through numerous networks of modern communications and new information technologies.
Slide 9
The industrial era is being replaced by an era dominated by high technologies (primarily information, communication and biotechnologies). They are directly related to the central resource of the new economy - the production of knowledge. ICTs expand the ability to bring many dispersed enterprises under direct control concentrated in one place. The Internet plays an exceptional role in the dissemination of information these days. Unlike previous eras, the current situation is characterized by a significant acceleration and deepening of scientific and technological progress. Multidimensionality of globalization processes
Slide 10
Under the influence of economic globalization, government policy priorities in the international arena are gradually shifting to the economic sphere, which is naturally accompanied by increased competition. Multidimensionality of globalization processes
Slide 11
Under the influence of technical and technological changes, globalization is increasingly manifested in the field of culture. the prerequisites are being created for the formation of a single human community, increasingly united by common goals, values and interests. Programs from the world's largest television companies can now be received almost anywhere in the world. Not only informational, but also entertainment youth channels (such as MTV) are becoming widespread. Multidimensionality of globalization processes in culture
Slide 12
Globalization affects all aspects of modern society
It promises economic growth, improved living standards and new opportunities. “It poses new intractable tasks for humanity, on the solution of which its future literally depends.
Slide 14
The global economy does not cover all economic processes on the planet, does not include all territories and all humanity in the work of economic and financial mechanisms. applies only to segments of economic industries, to individual countries and regions of the world, depending on the position of the country, region (or industry) in the international division of labor, the differentiation of countries by level of development is maintained and even deepened, the fundamental asymmetry between countries is reproduced in terms of the degree of their integration into the world economy and competitive potential. The fruits of globalization can be fully benefited mainly by developed Western countries. New fault lines and separation of countries and peoples are emerging. the emergence of the “deep South”, or the countries of the “fourth world”, which indicates a real danger of the complete degradation of a number of states that are capable of completely losing the ability to maintain basic functions as a result of consistent reductions in budget expenditures for the basic reproduction of social infrastructure and population. Inconsistency of the process of globalization (economics):
Slide 15
Spanish-American sociologist Manuel Castells
The global economy is characterized by fundamental asymmetries between countries in terms of their level of integration, competitive potential and the share of benefits from economic growth. This differentiation extends to regions within each country. The consequence of this concentration of resources, dynamism and wealth in certain territories is the segmentation of the world population... ultimately leading to a global increase in inequality.
Slide 16
Features of globalization:
The inability to take a break, to “leave the game” for a while is unrealistic!!! The struggle to maximize resources and opportunities in the context of globalization gives rise to only one real alternative facing each country - dynamic advanced development or decline and marginalization.
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“Globalization of the world economy and global economic problems of our time” Prepared by Svetlana Polyanskaya, a student of group 101.
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“Globalization of the economy” - Paths of development. There is more money in Russia than is needed. Globalization and national interests. World players. Impact assessment. Globalization and national egoisms. First conclusions for Russia. How to ensure national interests. Advantages. Slowdown of economic growth. International financial system.
“Problems of globalization” - Americanization. Globalization. Political influence. Growing globalization. Industry. Scientists. Culture. Destruction of industry. Disadvantage of modern society. Economy. Politics and management. Criticism of globalization. Modern films. Authors. Adjust the value system. Global society.
"World System" - Big Mac Index. Write the positive and negative consequences of globalization for society: The appearance of the term “globalization” is associated with the name of the American sociologist R. Robertson. 3. Nation states found themselves subordinate to transnational corporations (TNCs). 2. The group of countries of the “golden billion” includes two states... a) Argentina b) United States of America c) Norway d) Brazil.
“Consequences of globalization” - Social protection. Consequences of globalization and trade unions. Financial crises. Globalization of trade. Globalization or polarization. Globalization of cultures. Workers' Activities Program. Coordination of economic, trade and social policies. Information inequality. Social dialogue. Share in world trade.
“The process of globalization” - Interrelations of states. Views on the process of globalization. Transport development. The concept of integrity. Contradiction between man and the natural environment. Diversity of the modern world. Prospects for social development. Contradictions of the modern world. The current stage of world development. Test assignments on the topic “Globalization”.