Over the next decades, social upheavals several times led to declines—demographic crises.
First(1914-1922) began during the First World War and the revolution, and the intervention, epidemics and famine of 1921-1922. Emigration from Russia acquired a large scale. In 1920, the population of Russia was 88.2 million. General demographic losses in Russia for the period 1914-1921. (including losses from declining birth rates) are estimated at 12 to 18 million people.
Second demographic crisis was caused by the famine of 1933-1934. The total losses of the Russian population during this period are estimated at 5 to 6.5 million people.
Third demographic crisis falls during the Great Patriotic War. The population in 1946 was 98 million people, while in 1940 it was 110 million. Taking into account the decline in the birth rate, Russia's total losses during this period are estimated at 21 to 24 million people. To change the birth rate in the late 1960s. and in the mid-1990s. “Demographic waves” were of great importance, caused primarily by a sharp decrease in the number of births during the Great Patriotic War (the length of the demo wave is approximately 26 years).
In the early 1990s. Socio-economic and environmental ones were added to the demographic factors of the decline in the birth rate, which caused a kind of demographic resonance (the combination of the demo wave and socio-economic reasons leads to demographic interference). Information about the beginning appears in periodicals fourth demographic crisis in Russia.
The dynamics of the resident population according to post-war census data are in the table below.
Table 1. Resident population according to census data
From 1989 to 2002, the permanent population of the Russian Federation decreased by 1,840 thousand people, or 1.3%.
The population decline was mainly due to natural population decline, as well as due to the emigration of Russians to “far abroad” countries, which was significantly greater than the volume of immigration from these countries.
Population growth in Russia until the early 1990s. occurred due to both natural and migration growth, which, as a rule, did not exceed a quarter of the total increase. With the onset of natural population decline, migration became the only source of replenishing losses in the Russian population.
The permanent population of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2009 was 141.9 million people, of which 103.7 million people (73%) were city residents and 38.2 million people (27%) were rural residents. In 2008, 1713.95 thousand people were born, 2075.95 thousand people died, natural decline was 362 thousand people. In 2008, natural decline was replaced by 71.0% by migration growth (in 2007 - by 54.9%, in 2006 - by 22.5%).
The increase in migration from foreign countries amounted to 281.614 thousand people in 2008, and 242.106 thousand people in 2009.
The number of Russian citizens in 2008, taking into account migration growth, decreased by 104.9 thousand people. According to forecasts, by 2030, taking into account fertility, mortality and migration growth, the population of Russia will decrease to 139.4 million people. at the average (most probable) forecast level and up to 128.5 million people. at a low (worst) forecast level.
Among the measures to solve demographic problems in Russia are:
- ensuring the safety of citizens;
- reducing forced and premature death rates;
- reduction of morbidity and disability arising from unsatisfactory working conditions, unfavorable environmental conditions, emergency situations caused, first of all, by low levels of fire and transport safety;
The state and prospects for the development of human potential in the Russian Federation in the structure are fundamental conditions for the well-being of the country and the most important factors, which is based on taking into account the diversity of various factors.
Over the past 20 years, mortality has increased by 1.6-2.4 times. The highest rate of its growth (2 times or more) in men is at the age of 25-50 years, in women - 25-40 years. Currently, the mortality rate of men of working age exceeds the mortality rate of women by 5-7 times, resulting in an unprecedented gap of more than 12 years in average life expectancy between men and women. There is no such gap in life expectancy between men and women in any developed country in the world.
Numerical excess of women over men in the population is observed after 28 years and increases with age. At the beginning of 2008, the number of women exceeded the number of men by 10.6 million people. (16% more).
The average expected survival time of Russian citizens who turned 15 years old in 2008 is: men - 47.8 years, women - 60 years.
The predicted life expectancy of Russians is presented in table. 2.
Table 2. Life expectancy of Russian citizens at birth (number of years)*
|
Year of birth |
Low option |
Middle option |
High option |
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* The low version of the forecast is based on extrapolation of existing demographic trends, the high version is focused on achieving the goals defined in the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, the middle version of the forecast is considered the most realistic, it takes into account the existing demographic trends and the demographic policy measures taken .
For comparison in table. Table 3 shows data for some countries of the world on the average predicted survival time of citizens who in 2007-2008. turned 15 years old.
As can be seen from table. 3, In terms of life expectancy, Russia is significantly inferior to developed countries of the world, including the BRIC countries (Brazil-Russia-India-China). In world statistics, out of 192 UN member countries, Russia ranks 131st in life expectancy among men, and 91st among women.
The socio-economic development of the country depends on the state, the quality of which is largely determined by the level of health and the size of the working-age population. According to statistics for 2010, the working-age population is 62.3% (of the total population); children under 15 years old - 16.1%; persons over working age (men over 60 years old, women over 55 years old) - 21.6%.
According to international criteria, a population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 years or more in the entire population exceeds 7%. Russia passed this threshold in 1967. Currently, 14% of the country's population, i.e., every seventh Russian, is at this age.
Table 3. Predicted survival time of citizens who in 2007-2008. turned 15 years old, for some countries of the world (number of years)
In 2006, the working age population began to decline(working age: men - 16-59 years, women - 16-54 years), i.e. the most economically active part of the population. In the near future, this process will increase, which may cause a labor shortage in the labor market. According to the most probable forecast estimates, by 2030 the working-age population of Russia will decrease to 54.8% of the total population (76.4 million people). The number of people under working age will be 17% (23.7 million people), and those over working age will be 28.2% (39.3 million people).
Low life expectancy in our country is primarily associated with high mortality rates, especially among men. The overall mortality rate (the number of deaths per 1000 people) over the past 5 years in Russia exceeds 1.9 times the USA and 1.6 times the EU countries. Reducing the mortality rate to the 1990 level would save the lives of more than 650 thousand people - this is 1.8 times more than the natural population decline in the country in 2008.
When analyzing the causes of depopulation processes in Russia, it is also necessary to take into account the quality of reproductive health, which determines the demographic prospects of the country. The total fertility rate in our country in 2008, as a result of measures taken to stimulate the birth rate, became comparable to its value in the countries of the European Union. However, the birth rate in Russia is lower than the total mortality rate, which leads to a continuing decline in the country's population.
In Russia there is an increase general contingent disabled people registered with social security authorities. It has increased only in the last ten years from 7.9 million to 12.7 million people., what is 9% of the country's total population. The number of disabled people of working age is growing and has reached about 600 thousand people. For the first time, more than 1 million people are recognized as disabled each year. On average, from 12 (2008) to 15 (2000) thousand people become disabled per year due to the consequences of industrial injuries and occupational diseases. But these are only official statistics, because disability caused by industrial activities is often not diagnosed, but refers to general diseases.
There has been an alarming decline in the population of our country. It is especially dangerous that there remains a high level of mortality and morbidity among people of working age. The relatively favorable situation with the size of the working-age population may continue for the next few years, and then increasingly smaller categories of citizens born in the 1990s - early 2000s will enter working age, and those born in the 50s - early 60s will retire from working age centuries. Then the indicator of the demographic burden on the working-age population by people of retirement age will increase, while the average age of workers increases, which may worsen the socio-economic situation in the country.
Population is a labor resource on which the economic power of a country depends. For Russia, with its huge territory (more than 17 million sq. km - Russia is the largest country in the world by area), population size is of utmost importance for controlling territory. A further reduction in the population at the same pace could lead to a reduction in population density to a critical level, at which it will not be possible to control the territory purely physically, and this threatens the territorial integrity of Russia.
The causes of diseases leading to death, disability, loss of ability to work, and degree of work activity are varied. These include socio-economic living conditions, and increasing information, mental and emotional stress. A significant role in the causes of diseases belongs to the state of the environment and working conditions. It is not yet possible to reliably assess the contribution to mortality and premature decline in working capacity made by the environmental situation and working conditions that occur during the onset of the disease or preceding it. However, according to most scientists, this contribution is very significant.
Population crisis in Russia
At the turn of the century, Russia continues to experience a deep and protracted demographic crisis, which is manifested in a population decline, a deterioration in its quality, a decrease in average life expectancy, and an aging population. The birth rate of the population fell to 1.3 million people in 1999 from 2.4 million in 1985, or by 45.8%, and the mortality rate increased from 1.6 to 2.3 million people (then decreased to 2 million) . Fertility rate, i.e. The average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime has fallen from 2.1 in 1985-1986. to 1.2 in 1999. In other words, over the past 15 years, simple population reproduction has not been ensured in Russia, i.e. Each generation of children is smaller than the generation of parents.
Life expectancy over these years decreased for the entire population from 69.26 to 67.02 years; for men - from 63.83 to 61.3; for women - from 73 to 72.93. The quality of public health is declining. The number of disabled children has exceeded 600 thousand. During a medical examination, 90% of schoolchildren are diagnosed with a variety of diseases. Of the young people of military age, more than half are “limitedly fit”, i.e. essentially sick.
We are now seeing a downward trend in the number of children in a family. According to Goskomstat, the majority of Russians today consider it most acceptable to have one child.
If previously three or four children in a family were absolutely normal, now large families are much less common. But, as before, rural families typically have a larger number of children than urban ones.
If current trends are not overcome, then in the 21st century. Russia will face the problem of the survival of the nation and the preservation of its statehood. The current demographic situation dictates the need for further research into possible options for the development of socio-demographic processes in Russia.
There are three main directions for overcoming the demographic crisis.
First - changing the reproductive behavior of the population, orienting the value systems of young people towards family and children.
Second direction - reducing population mortality, improving people's quality of life. In the current situation, the birth rate is unlikely to increase, so we must do everything we can to help the family save those already born and raise them to be healthy physically and morally.
Third direction - assessment of the possibility of compensating for losses of the Russian population through more complete use of the migration potential of the CIS countries. This direction can give the most tangible results in improving the demographic situation, or at least stabilizing it, at the lowest cost and in a shorter time. The latter is very important, given the need to quickly respond to depopulation processes.
Before World War I, the birth rate in Russia was one of the highest among European countries - 47.8 per 1000 people (1913). Such a high birth rate was explained by early marriage, the high marriage rate of the population, and the predominance of the rural population, which always had a higher level of fertility. However, since the 1930s there has been a decline in this level. The Second World War only intensified this process. The post-war compensatory rise in the birth rate, which continued until the end of the 40s, did not restore the pre-war level.
The decline in the birth rate resumed in the 50s, which was greatly facilitated by the abolition of the ban on abortion in 1955. In the next decade, the dynamics of fertility rates reflected the continued transition to a new type of reproductive behavior. Since the late 60s in
In Russia, the two-child family model began to prevail, the birth rate dropped to a level slightly lower than necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population.
In subsequent decades, fertility rates stabilized and fluctuated under the influence of market factors (economic, political, social), without deviating far from the level of two children born per woman. These fluctuations include the rise in birth rates in the early 80s, which began shortly after the introduction of state support for families with children aimed at stimulating the birth rate (extension of paid parental leave, increase in child benefits and other benefits) . By 1987, the total fertility rate for the first time since the mid-60s rose to a level significantly higher than simple population replacement. But the effect of these measures was short-lived, which only confirms the experience of other countries.
The sharp drop in the birth rate in the early 90s can no longer be interpreted only as a normal fluctuation in the process. It is explained not so much by the influence of radical socio-political and socio-economic transformations, but by changes in the “calendar” of births caused by socio-demographic policy measures introduced in the early 80s. Social benefits have encouraged families to have planned children earlier than they expected. But since the intentions of the spouses regarding the total number of children in the family did not change, the contingent of potential parents turned out to be largely exhausted, which caused a reduction in the absolute number of births in subsequent years.
The socio-economic crisis, to a certain extent, accelerated the process of transition from traditional to a new type of reproductive behavior, in which intra-family regulation of childbirth becomes widespread and becomes the main factor determining the level of fertility.
If, with regard to the process of reducing the birth rate, Russia followed the path of the countries of Western Europe, then the dynamics of mortality in our country fits into the so-called model of demographic transition. Improvements in living standards and the quality of medical care in developed countries have contributed to a significant increase in life expectancy. The decline in mortality as a result of changing life priorities was followed by a fall in the birth rate.
The model of demographic development in Russia, as well as in most Eastern European countries, currently combines the low birth rate characteristic of highly developed countries with the lower average life expectancy that was observed during the recovery period of post-war Europe. Thus, there is some delay in the aging process, which is explained by a large number of premature deaths, especially among men.
The long-term decline in the level of natural reproduction of the population, combined with an increase in the absolute number of older people, made the process of demographic aging of the population almost irreversible, and the sharp decline in the birth rate in the 90s accelerated it.
According to international criteria, a country's population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 years and older exceeds 7% of the total population. According to this indicator, Russia can be classified as an aging country since the late 60s, and currently 12.5% of its residents (i.e., every eighth Russian) is over 65 years old.
However, thanks to a well-funded national project to increase the birth rate in Russia, a turning point in this trend occurred in 2007: for the first time in the last 20 years, the population of Russia stopped declining, and a trend towards an increase in the birth rate began to form.
Today we will talk about how, in which countries, programs to reduce the birth rate were implemented, and what results this led to.
“Population control (including Birth Control Policy) is the practice of artificially changing the rate of growth of human populations. Historically, population control was implemented through population control, usually by the government, as a response to various factors, including high or increasing poverty, environmental constraints, overpopulation, or for religious reasons."
It will no longer be news to anyone that the Earth's population will soon exceed the mark of 8 billion people, while the optimal number of people who can coexist peacefully on Earth without interfering with each other, without adversely affecting the environment (and that is relatively ) - only about 6 billion. Still, for any population value, even 1 billion people will have a bad impact on the Earth.
But even before the world’s population began to approach a critical point in terms of numbers, some countries had long ago crossed the line of the maximum possible capacity of citizens on their territory. These countries were:
China, India, Singapore, Iran.
We will tell you one by one how the policy of birth control was applied in them.
China
“The most widespread population control is carried out in modern China. Basically, each family here is allowed to have no more than one child, although there are exceptions. Violation of restrictions results in fines.
The One Family, One Child program was launched in 1978. According to official statistics, the program has helped prevent more than 400 million births. The success of the program is sometimes called into question, since part of the decline in fertility is caused by the country's industrialization and economic factors.
Since 2016, the program has been canceled and permission to have two children has been introduced.”
At the moment, China (with India not far behind, as well as mainland Africa) is the country with the largest population in the world, while the country has the 3rd largest territory in the world, but there is not enough space for everyone. Population density over 143.7 people/km².
Attempts to somehow lead China to prudent childbearing began in the middle of the last century; the “One Family, One Child” program started in the 1970s. If at the beginning of its use there were an average of 5.8 children per woman, today it is 1.8. Here it is worth taking into account population growth and, accordingly, the expansion of growth proportions.
Even during the period of the program, there were exceptional cases where parents were allowed to have two children, for example, national minorities, village residents, spouses who were the only children in their families, in cases of multiple pregnancies and if the first child was a girl or with a defect, the state could also exercise loyalty.
The Chinese, especially those living in the countryside, often lied when compiling the census about the number of children (so that birth control sanctions would not be applied to them and to hide the number of children they already had), thus the data we see today may be greatly underestimated. In fact, even today, despite the lifting of drastic restrictions, birth control exists in China.
What officially decent measures were used to limit the birth rate? They raised the age of marriage, 20 years for girls, 22 years for boys, before marriage, potential parents had to undergo medical examinations and examinations (by a psychiatrist, narcologist, etc.), the prestige of education increased, and extramarital and premarital affairs were condemned. Illegal and cruel methods of reducing the birth rate include forced abortions and sterilization, killing of infants, in particular females, but more on these measures a little later.
Of course, many people are concerned with the question: how were the Chinese able to increase their numbers so quickly? What is the secret of fertility? Perhaps in the scorpion tincture, often consumed since the ancient imperial dynasties throughout China, perhaps in the early puberty and high fertility of women. Another point that concerns all countries with a high birth rate and a growing population is poverty and the inaccessibility of primitive contraceptive measures. Here the situation turns, roughly speaking, not into quality, but into quantity. There are a lot of people, but there is nothing to give them, nothing to occupy them, so the new generation is mainly engaged in making children early.
However, in the case of China, this is debatable - no other country brings us so many innovations, even cheap, harmful, disposable ones.
What cruel measures were used against those who violated the framework of the “One Family, One Child” program? Fines were mainly imposed on local authorities. when, as a result of the census, it was established that there were more children in the family than expected. The fines amounted to several annual salaries, and therefore authorities at the local level were forced to actively combat childbearing using cruel methods. For example, women were forcibly sterilized and aborted long term. Infants were often sent to soups - a long-known practice.
Girls were not considered human beings at all; there were known cases of failure to provide medical care to female children, who subsequently died due to the negligence of doctors. Parents and Chinese citizens themselves often treated girls as second-class citizens. It was possible to perform an abortion long term without indication if the gender of the child was determined to be female.
What did all this lead to? Not only the disorderly birth rate, because it is a consequence of certain processes, but also such a devaluation of human life in the form of a cruel framework for implementing a program to reduce the birth rate.
To the fact that human life in China has become zero...
There are so many Chinese that they don’t feel sorry for themselves, they don’t feel sorry for their own kind. And it's wild.
The first country in the world in terms of the number of death penalties (that is, here not only long-term abortions are legalized as measures of population control, but also the murder of adults for various reasons), a country where they eat soup with babies, and this is not prohibited by law. where gender reassignment, prostitution (of young boys, girls), homosexuality, where the life of girls is often equal to the life of an insect - this is the norm.
India
The population of India today is almost the same as that of China - more than 1.3 billion people (second largest in the world), territory - 7th largest in the world, population density - 364 people / km².
Despite the fact that India is a superpower with nuclear weapons, despite the fact that the country has a well-developed education sector, the percentage of the poor population is too high, the vast majority of residents are below the poverty line by European standards.
Naturally, poverty entails the impossibility of access to contraception, development, and getting a normal job. If you watch films about Indians who live in the deepest areas of poverty, you will understand that not everything is so bad in our country.
People sometimes simply sleep on cardboard, wash in garbage puddles, eat fish caught in a ditch with waste, give birth to 7-8 children, without even noticing the appearance of a new family member. And I feel sorry for such people, they have never known another life, but they also want to live not alone, they want some kind of family... all that they saw from their parents is the same reproduction in poverty...
There are more “affluent” Indians, for example, living in slums, self-built villages. There are relatively rich ones. But basically the population of India is poor people.
Birth restrictions here began in the same way as in the case of China in the mid-20th century. Families with two or more children were prohibited from being elected to the local government or holding leadership positions. The state helped families with only one child; in general, the path to the top and getting any worthwhile work were closed to families with many children, which again created a vicious circle of poverty in society.
“In India, mass state-sponsored sterilizations of women were carried out, the country showed one of the highest rates in the whole world. In 2011-2014 alone, about 8.6 million women and 200 thousand men underwent surgery (since male sterilization is considered culturally unacceptable in these places), and other methods of contraception for uneducated women living in remote and poor communities are considered government more expensive than mass surgical sterilization campaigns.
In some cases, women receive a one-time payment of 1,400 rupees after surgery, which can exceed two weeks' income in poor regions. Some operations were carried out in inappropriate conditions, without disinfection, without examinations, etc., and led to the death of more than 700 women in 2009-2012. In 2016, the country's supreme court ordered the closure of all sterilization camps over the next 3 years.
The population of India, due to cultural characteristics, can use selective abortions (selective abortions), in which the elimination of women is carried out even before their birth (gendercide, Gendercide; a phenomenon similar to female infanticide). Researchers have noted a change in the ratio of male to female births and suggest a steady increase in the number of selective abortions since the 1990s.”
Due to abortions, selective abortions, when women resorted to abortion when they were pregnant girls, in the country today there is a small gap between the number of men and women: for every 944 women there are 1000 men.
In addition to the women who died from abortions and sterilization, according to official data, many died from illegal procedures and are not counted in statistics, many remained disabled, and the same children lost their mothers.
It is almost an honor to have an abortion in India among the poor - sometimes this is the only way a woman can buy food for her children, because they give money for an abortion.
Of course, the most active and large-scale programs to reduce the birth rate have been and are operating in India and China, and thanks to these countries, we have the most active percentage of global population growth in the world. That is, the world population is growing precisely at the expense of the poor, who do not have access to contraception, even less worthy human benefits, basic living conditions, and sanitation.
Two more countries that also officially implemented a policy of population reduction/control were Iran and Singapore, but within a much less modest framework than the first two.
Iran
Iran has significantly reduced its birth rate in recent years. The state requires courses on contraception before marriage. Since 1993, laws have been in effect that deny welfare benefits and food stamps to third and subsequent children in the family. Families of no more than 2 children and the use of contraception are promoted.
Singapore
Population control in Singapore went through two phases. After the Second World War, measures were taken to reduce the birth rate. Since the 1980s, after the birth rate fell below replacement level, the state has been promoting an increase in the number of children in the family.”
Africa
It is also worth talking about another populous country - Africa (more precisely, the mainland). The population according to 2013 data is 1.1 billion people, that is, at the moment the population is almost on par with India and China.
Africa in its territory has several states, countries, localities where people simply swarm in poverty, the word “live” cannot even be called it.
Africa occupies a special place in the list of countries for birth control, mainly because almost no measures are taken to control and reduce birth rates in Africa, and therefore the catastrophically growing population becomes a real problem for humanity. That is, to put it correctly, it is not people who are the problem, but problems related to overpopulation - increasing poverty, lack of drinking water, lack of civilization, work, education, interethnic strife.
“Demographers were wrong in their forecasts: there has been no reduction in the birth rate in Africa over the past decades, population growth continues on a scale that humanity has never known. If in 1960 there were 280 million people living on the African continent, today there are 1.2 billion, of which one billion are in sub-Saharan Africa. According to UN estimates, in 2050 the continent's population will be 2.5 billion people, and by the end of the century - 4.4 billion. This is more than the entire population of the planet in 1980.
On average, there are 5.6 children per woman in Nigeria, 6.4 in Somalia (even during civil war), and 7.6 in Niger. There are many reasons: thanks to modern medicine, infant mortality has fallen, but Africans are in no hurry to limit the number of children. Women are still viewed as “birthing machines,” Africans practically do not use contraceptives, and family planning does not exist.”
Can you imagine that it is not far off when there will be 4.5 billion Africans??
Together with the Chinese and Indians, who by that time had “multiplied” to the point of chaos, this is just a crowd covering half the planet. But the danger is not at all that the population is growing, but that it is growing in socially disadvantaged areas, where young people see nothing but poverty, lack of education, and often deviant behavior. That is, this is a potentially criminal mass of people...
Already making up the bulk of the world's population.
Poor countries are a colossal potential for powers that have power, because people are, in the mass, a force, productive, working... or just a platform for experiments, for making revolutions, because the crowd is easy to provoke.
Gates uses Africans to experiment with vaccines, perform operations under different types of anesthesia and without anesthesia at all...
Here, no matter how hard you try to convince yourself that man makes the environment, and not man’s environment, the second part of this statement will always be right.
I used Africa as an example of how complete lack of birth control is not good.
Why is the practice of birth control necessary at all?
In your opinion, is the practice of birth control necessary? Many will say that cruel measures, namely sterilization, late-term abortions, discrimination against girls and handicapped children, are evil... However, an increase in the population in poverty will not do anything good. Birth control is definitely needed, but, of course, not through cruel methods.
For example, it is necessary to increase the availability of education, especially for women, make contraception available, and increase the prestige of marriage.
According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, today the world is experiencing another demographic transition, which is characterized by an increase in human life expectancy and a decrease in the birth rate. World fertility rate 1950-1955. was five births per woman, in 2010-2015. - twice smaller. The number of countries in which this coefficient is 2.1 is growing. This is the so-called replacement level, at which a generation of parents gives birth to an equivalent number of children to replace them. In 1975-1980, only 21% of the world population had a birth rate at this level, in 2010-2015 - already 46%. According to UN forecasts, already between 2025 and 2030, two thirds of the world's population will live in countries in which the birth rate will fall below replacement level.
Why is the birth rate declining?
Scientists have concluded that the decline in the birth rate is not associated with a low standard of living. On the contrary, according to statistics, higher birth rates are observed in developing countries than in developed countries. That is, the poorer the country, the more children are born there. This was established back in the 19th century, when the French demographer Jacques Bertillon conducted a study of the birth rate in the districts of Paris, Berlin and Vienna and found that fewer children were born in wealthier families.
The American analytical company Stratfor writes that there are now too many elderly dependents in the world and not enough working population. Therefore, a decrease in the birth rate can lead to negative consequences in the global economy. The company identifies the following reasons for the decline in the birth rate: changes in religious values, the emancipation of women, an increase in their employment, higher costs of child care and education.
A 2017 report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs noted that the decline in the overall fertility rate is associated with the aging of the world's population. Demographers also attribute the decline to a reduction in child mortality, high access to modern contraception and an increased desire of women to postpone having children in order to get an education and build a career.
American anthropologists led by Paul Hooper in a 2016 article they write that the listed factors exist, but the real reason for the decline in the birth rate is competition for high social status and the possession of prestigious things. The study's authors note that the sharpest decline in fertility occurs in countries with market economies, where there is competition for jobs and a surplus of consumer goods. Anthropologists have argued this hypothesis using the example of the Tsimane tribe living in northern Bolivia. The average Tsimane family has nine children, but for members who have moved to cities closer to the Spanish-speaking population, the average number of children per family drops to three.
Aminat Magomedova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Population, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University, told AiF.ru about what other reasons exist for the decline in the birth rate. Lomonosov. “There are different approaches to explaining the historical evolution of fertility. Within the framework of the theory of demographic transition, a decrease in fertility is an element of the global demographic process of transition to a more economical reproduction regime. The concept of demographic homeostasis examines the dynamics of fertility in connection with mortality rates. The higher the mortality rate in a society, the more children are needed to at least reproduce itself. And as mortality decreases, the birth rate also decreases,” says Magomedova.
One approach is the utility concept, which explains the birth of children by their utility. “Within the framework of the economic utility of children, a change in the direction of transfer of benefits “from children to parents” to “from parents to children” is considered. If earlier children were beneficial as a labor force, it was believed that the more children, the stronger the family economically, but now we understand that it is children who require maximum expenses, time, effort, and energy. There is also an explanation in terms of psychological usefulness. It is believed that even one child can satisfy the psychological need for children in modern society. To do this, you don’t need to have them in large quantities,” says the expert.
Magomedova also notes that the decline in the birth rate is associated with the coming to the forefront of personal interests, the individualization of the sphere of fertility, and the lesser influence of traditions and norms on the decision to have a child. An increase in the share of educated women and an increase in women's employment in post-industrial society lead to postponing the birth of children, and sometimes to refusal to have them.
One of the most pressing problems for the national security of the Russian state is the demographic situation in the country. It is known that the birth rate in modern Russia, despite a certain improvement associated with the relative increase in living standards in the 2000s (compared to the 1990s) and some government measures to stimulate demographic growth, remains at a fairly low level. At the very least, it is hardly possible to say that the Russian birth rate currently covers the needs for replenishing the country's population. Russian citizens are rapidly aging, especially in the “Russian” regions of the country, where the lowest birth rate is observed.
Causes of demographic decline
A strong demographic decline was observed in Russia throughout almost the entire twentieth century and was associated not only with changes in the socio-economic and socio-cultural foundations of the Russian state, but also with the fact that during the years of wars, revolutions, collectivization and industrialization, and political repression, the Russian state lost 140 -150 million people. Accordingly, since a significant part of the dead were people of both sexes of childbearing age, as well as children and adolescents, the number of potential newborns who could have been born to victims of domestic global cataclysms decreased by tens of millions of people.
However, an equally significant role in the demographic crisis in Russia was played by the decrease in the number of children the average Russian woman has. According to A. Vishnevsky, one of the largest domestic experts in demography, for the period from 1925 to 2000. the birth rate decreased by an average of 5.59 children per woman (A. Vishnevsky. Demography of the Stalin era). Moreover, the most active decline in the birth rate occurred in the period from 1925 to 1955. - that is, for the periods of industrialization and collectivization, the Great Patriotic War, and the post-war restoration of Soviet infrastructure. The population of modern Russia decreases annually by about 700 thousand people, which allows us to speak of the country as gradually dying out (yes, that’s exactly how, without mincing these words, President Vladimir Putin himself described it back in 2000, and 6 years later - in 2006 year - he said that the population of Russia could be halved by the end of the 21st century if drastic measures are not taken to improve the demographic situation in the country).
Very often, in everyday judgments about the reasons for the decline in the birth rate, there is an explanation for the low birth rate by social conditions, primarily the insufficient material well-being of the population, the lack of well-paid jobs for parents, separate and large housing, and the infrastructure of kindergartens and schools. However, when compared with third world countries or pre-revolutionary Russia, such arguments do not stand up to criticism. We see the conditions in which the bulk of the Central Asian population lives, not to mention Africans or residents of South Asia. However, overcrowding, poverty (and sometimes outright poverty), and lack of social prospects do not at all prevent people from having children - and in quantities of “five and above.”
In fact, the reasons for the decline in the birth rate in Russia in the twentieth century lie rather on an ideological plane. Their main incentive is the devaluation of traditional values and the destruction of the way of life of the Russian and other peoples of the country during the revolution and, especially, the post-revolutionary Stalinist transformations. One cannot help but pay tribute to the Stalin era as a period of maximum development of industry, defense, security of the Soviet state, the spread of universal literacy of the population, and the availability of medical care (albeit not very qualified, but still significant).
However, for a rapid breakthrough in the economy of the USSR, it was necessary to mobilize as many citizens as possible, attracting to work almost the entire working population of the country, including both men and women. According to A. Vishnevsky, “the very methods by which the Stalinist leadership of the USSR sought - and achieved - a “great turning point” in people’s life were such that they recklessly destroyed the entire system of traditional values, including family ones” (Vishnevsky A. Demography during the Stalin era).
Despite the fact that Stalin and his entourage negatively assessed the activities of the “leftist” wing of the Bolshevik Party, which insisted in the first post-revolutionary years on the complete destruction of the institution of the family, which promoted the sexual freedom of men and women, freedom of abortion, in reality the “left communists” had a lot borrowed. And, first of all, a specific model for organizing family relationships. It can be called proletarian, since it was the proletariat, as a class of wage workers, mainly living in cities and employed in factory production, that made such an organization of the family possible. For a peasant, the number of children did not matter much; moreover, having many children was in favor, since children are future hands; where you can feed two, you can always feed three, and so on. The peasants also had the opportunity to place their numerous offspring in their hut, or, if their children grew up, in a hut built nearby, in an extension.
In contrast, the urban proletarians, huddled in rooms and apartments of tenement buildings, could not afford numerous offspring. Both due to the lack of places for accommodation, and due to the different nature of labor activity, the proletarian worked for a salary and the child became just another eater, reducing the well-being of the family without any return (when he grew up, he did not work on his father’s farm, like a peasant son, but went to earn his own bread, that is, did not bring direct material return to the parental family). Moreover, in urban proletarian families, as a rule, women also went to work. Women workers who found themselves in a situation of independent choice of work activity and place of residence developed a completely different model of sexual behavior. Firstly, they were much less dependent on the opinions of others than peasant women. Secondly, being self-employed workers, they could indulge in the behavior that they considered necessary. Naturally, for them, having many children was an obvious obstacle - after all, it directly interfered with factory work.
The concept of the “new woman” and fertility
The ideology of family policy in Soviet Russia was formed under the influence of the concepts of the “new woman”, which began to take shape in the 19th century in the works of both domestic and foreign writers and philosophers of a revolutionary-democratic persuasion. In Russia, N.G. wrote primarily about the “new woman”. Chernyshevsky. In the West, the idea of women's emancipation has received much greater development. The ideology of feminism has formed, which currently includes many branches - liberal, socialist, radical, lesbian and even “black” feminism. What the spread of feminism in the countries of Western Europe has led to is needless to say, this situation is quite deplorable for European societies and is the cause of significant contradictions between various groups of the European population.
In Russia, feminist ideas, including the concept of creating a “new woman,” found grateful supporters among representatives of revolutionary parties and movements, primarily the Social Democrats. The Social Revolutionaries - the “populists” - were still largely soil-minded, although similar theoretical constructs were spread among them. During the revolutionary years, the main theorist of the concept of the “new woman” was Alexandra Kollontai. This amazing woman - politician, diplomat, revolutionary - managed not only to form her own concept of family and sexual relations in a socialist society, but also with her own biography to largely demonstrate what the image of a “new woman” is.
According to Kollontai, the traditional image of a woman from time immemorial has been associated with humility, a focus on a successful marriage, and a lack of initiative in building one’s own life and independence in life. A traditional woman is such a specific addition to a man, his companion and ally, essentially deprived of her own “I” and, often, her own dignity. In contrast to the traditional image of a woman, Kollontai put forward the concept of a “new woman” - self-sufficient, politically and socially active, treating a man as an equal and truly being his equal in building her own independent life.
The image of the “new woman” is, first of all, the image of an unmarried woman. Let us add - and, as follows from the disclosure of this image, childless - after all, the presence of a child, especially two or three, not to mention five, deprives a woman of her independence in the understanding of Alexandra Kollontai. She names three main principles for building new love and marriage relationships: equality in mutual relationships, mutual recognition of the rights of the other without claiming full ownership of the partner’s heart and soul, comradely sensitivity towards one’s love partner (A. Kollontai. Make way for winged erostus. 1923. ).
Already in the mid-1920s. Kollontai's work was officially criticized in the Soviet Union. Gradually, its concept turned out to be forgotten - they preferred to remain silent about it. Moreover, as Soviet statehood strengthened, the country's leadership was left with no other options other than a partial return to traditional values. The official press, literature, and cinema of the Stalin era promoted the type of Soviet woman who managed to combine the features of Kollontai’s “new woman” in terms of party and social activity, labor exploits, and the traditional family behavior of a mother and wife. However, it is not difficult to guess that the ideology of the Soviet state was at odds with the actual practice of organizing family and demographic policies. Formally, motherhood was promoted, divorce was assessed negatively, and in 1936 the Soviet government banned abortion, but in fact the social policy of the Soviet state was not aimed at truly strengthening the demographic foundations of the country.
The decline in the birth rate during the Stalin era indicates that measures taken to ban abortion did not produce the desired result. Firstly, in the Soviet Union, women for the most part found themselves employed. Those who received higher and secondary vocational education, after graduating from educational institutions, were sent to work on assignments - often to completely different regions of the country. Their chances of getting married quickly decreased. And the system of state propaganda itself, to a large extent, did not orient women (as well as men) towards family values.
Although the Soviet state needed numerous workers, soldiers and officers, new engineers and scientists, and indeed took colossal steps in this direction (just look at the number of educational institutions of all levels that appeared precisely in the Stalin era, at the number of children “from the people”, who received a high-quality professional education and achieved heights in various fields of scientific, military, industrial, cultural activity), something turned out to be irretrievably lost. And this “something” was the very meaning of childbearing and creating a strong, full-fledged family. The family was deprived of its economic, economic, and social content, although it was proclaimed a “unit of society.” Children could be raised in kindergarten, husbands or wives could be changed periodically (if they weren’t happy with some of the nuances of living together, or if they were simply “tired”), living together between a man and a woman in a city apartment had practically no economic significance.
After Stalin passed away and the “de-Stalinization” of the Soviet Union, even those measures to maintain the birth rate that Stalin tried to introduce by banning abortion were canceled. Despite the fact that after the war there was even some population growth, it was not possible to reach a level of birth rate that would allow the population of the Soviet state to increase many times over time. What happened in the post-Soviet period should not be recalled. In the 1990s, economic factors also played a role, and, to an even greater extent, the final destruction of traditional values and their replacement with a Westernized surrogate. Moreover, if in the Soviet model of family and gender policy women at least oriented themselves, if not towards family life, then towards creative activity “for the good of the homeland and the party”, then in the post-Soviet period the values of personal material well-being completely eclipsed all other life guidelines.
Since motherhood and marriage are no longer considered real values by most Russian youth, a global “shortage of children” has emerged.
Although many sociological surveys of young Russians indicate that family remains the most important life value for Russian youth (or at least the second most important), there is an obvious discrepancy between what is desired (as Russians respond to sociologists) and what is actual. The latter is not encouraging - the country has an extremely high divorce rate - 50% of marriages break up, which keeps Russia among the world leaders in the number of divorces. As for childbearing, it was only in the 2000s, after the introduction of real financial incentives, that citizens began to have more children (however, some skeptics explain the relative increase in the birth rate in the country in the 2000s by the fact that during this period the “demographic boom” generation entered childbearing age » 1980s, and the socio-economic conditions of life in the country have relatively stabilized).
An important role here was played by the introduction of so-called payments. “maternity capital”, which is paid upon the birth of a second child and when he reaches the age of three years. The decision to start paying out maternity capital was made in 2006, and in order to prevent the possibility of it being used for personal gain by representatives of marginalized sections of the population, it was decided not to issue it in cash, but to issue a special certificate allowing them to purchase housing for a certain amount , close a mortgage loan, pay for a child’s education.
Currently, maternity capital is about 430 thousand rubles. The amount is not small - in some regions of Russia you can use it to buy your own home or, at least, to really improve your living conditions. The conditions and emergence of other opportunities for spending maternity capital in the interests of the family and children are discussed. However, it is impossible to achieve an increase in the birth rate through material motivation alone. Moreover, considering that in order to receive maternity capital you still need to give birth to your first child. Therefore, some sociologists assess the very idea of materially stimulating the birth rate very skeptically, citing the fact that only representatives of marginal segments of the population or migrant diasporas will give birth in order to receive assistance from the state in the amount of 430 thousand rubles. That is, even in this case, the problem of demographic security of the Russian state will not be solved.
Abortion threatens demographics
Another problem in Russia in the field of fertility is abortion. Abortion was officially allowed in Soviet Russia immediately after the October Revolution. In 1920, the RSFSR allowed termination of pregnancy not only for medical reasons, becoming the first country in the world to legalize abortion. Abortion was banned in 1936 and legalized again only in 1955 after the “de-Stalinization” policy. Between 1990 and 2008. In post-Soviet Russia, according to official data, 41 million 795 thousand abortions were performed. This number covers the real labor force needs of the Russian state (about 20 million people in the specified period), which allows many public and political figures to consider abortion as a direct threat to the demographic security of the Russian state.
About half of the country's population is against abortion in Russia today. Sociological surveys show a gradual reduction in the number of supporters of abortion - from 57% of respondents in 2007 to 48% in 2010 (Levada Center. On the reproductive behavior of Russians). The views of opponents of abortion are usually expressed by nationalist political movements and religious organizations. Among them there are both absolute opponents of performing any abortions, including even abortions for medical reasons, and moderate opponents of abortions who recognize the possibility of them being performed in justified cases (medical reasons, rape, social instability, etc.).
First of all, Russian public figures and traditionalist philosophers object to the practice of abortion. For them, abortion is not only a threat to the national security of the Russian state, one of the reasons for the reduction in the potential population of the Russian Federation, but also a challenge to religious values, traditional ideological guidelines, initially inherent in almost all peoples of the world, but being destroyed in the process of detraditionalization of modern society, the adoption of individualistic and consumerist values of modern Western capitalism. After all, the ideology of “child free” - voluntary childlessness, elevated to a virtue by modern “creaks” and narrow-minded consumers striving to imitate them, is a deliberate inculcation of essentially anti-Russian principles of refusing to have children, creating a full-fledged family in the name of “own realization”, which more often In all, it is just an opportunity for everyday and carefree “hanging out,” shopping, or even just idleness, drunkenness and drug addiction.
Reducing the birth rate is one of the goals of numerous “family planning” associations, which initially arose in Western European countries on the initiative of feminist movements and sponsored by international financial circles interested in reducing population numbers - primarily in developed countries, since here a large population means growth of social responsibility and economic burdens on capitalists. Therefore, it is more expedient to “reduce” the number of the indigenous population, while simultaneously importing foreign migrants from backward countries of the “third world” who will be ready to do hard work without social guarantees and any requirements to improve their situation (now the experience of modern Europe shows that this is far from not so, and many migrants do not work at all in their new place of residence, but they even demand social guarantees and all kinds of privileges, but it is no longer possible to change the situation for most Western countries).
Philosopher Oleg Fomin-Shakhov, who is one of the most staunch opponents of abortion in modern Russia, emphasizes that “the problem of abortion for today's Russia is, first of all, a problem of demographic security. At the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo on September 5–13, 1994, a program of action was adopted that essentially represented voluntary-compulsory self-reduction sanctions for Russia. The program stated that for sustainable regional and global socio-economic development it is necessary to take measures to reduce the birth rate, primarily through the development of family planning services (contraception, sterilization, abortion “in adequate conditions”)” (O. Fomin-Shakhov. Russia without abortions. Newspaper “Zavtra”. Electronic version dated June 5, 2014).
At the same time, Oleg Fomin-Shakhov proposes to use the American experience of the pro-life movement, that is, opponents of abortion and supporters of preserving human life already in the womb. American pro-lifers, according to Oleg Fomin-Shakhov, were the first to bring the topic of abortion into the realm of social problems, whereas before them abortion was regarded as a person’s personal sin or a crime against state laws. The question was also raised about the essence of abortion as a tool of biopolitics to regulate the population of individual states. As for Russia, it is obvious that its vast territories and natural resources have long been the envy of a number of neighboring states. Throughout history, the Russian state has faced hordes of foreign conquerors, but today more far-sighted theorists and practitioners of the global financial oligarchy can afford to use such technologies as biopolitics, that is, regulation of childbirth in Russia, the mortality rate of the population, including propaganda mechanisms - propaganda of abortion, a “free” lifestyle, all kinds of social deviations, criminal subculture, etc.
Another famous philosopher Alexander Dugin, in his article “Childbirth as a Philosophical Problem,” connects the lack of desire for childbearing with the destruction of traditional values of Russian society, rejection of religious values and the adoption of alien individualistic models aimed at the exclusive “self-worth” of a person. Within the framework of this axiological model, childbirth becomes an obstacle to a “free”, but in reality – aimless and characterized only by consumerism – human life. “The system of dirty monstrous lies, naked Russophobia, aimed at destroying our cultural and physical code, leaves no desire to create an honest, cultural, Orthodox Russian family and raise a large number of wonderful Russian children. And it is no longer obvious whether the argument for young people will be that if they do not give birth to children, there will be no Russia,” writes Dugin (A. Dugin. Childbirth as a philosophical problem).
Should abortion be banned in modern Russia? Of course, a total ban on abortion is hardly possible in modern conditions. And this step will not be really justified and understood by the population. However, strict control over the practice of abortion must be introduced - and this is one of the necessary measures towards ensuring the demographic policy of the Russian state. First of all, all cases of abortions by Russian women must be strictly controlled, taking into account the reasons for their commission. Thus, for medical reasons, in the interests of preserving the life of a woman, after rape (the criminal background of abortion), abortions should be allowed. The possibility of abortion should also be left for families who already have several children or are experiencing reasonable financial difficulties.
However, the bulk of abortions performed by young, childless, middle- or high-income women with no apparent health problems should be prohibited. Please note that there is no attack on a woman’s personal freedom here. It is enough to use contraception, not to have a promiscuous sex life, that is, to take care of yourself and adhere to at least basic moral and ethical principles - and the need to periodically go for an abortion will disappear by itself. In the end, in most countries of the world - in almost all Latin American countries, countries of Africa, the Islamic East, in some Catholic countries of Europe, abortion is prohibited and these countries somehow exist, many - quite well.
Are there any prospects?
The practice of materially stimulating the birth rate, which Russia switched to during the reign of V.V. Putin, is of great importance for the development of the birth rate in the country. However, it is impossible to encourage people to start families and give birth with economic messages alone, especially in modern society with its temptations and information pressure from corresponding propaganda. A whole range of measures is needed - in the social, economic sphere, in the sphere of culture and education, health care, which creates the prerequisites for a truly full-fledged upbringing of little Russians and for their very birth. This includes the payment of decent child care benefits, and the possibility of introducing a “maternity salary” for women with many children who decide to devote themselves entirely to child care, and assistance to children’s families in improving living conditions (increasing living space depending on the increase in the number of children in the family) , and the provision of additional means of transport and household appliances for large families. All these activities must be carried out at the federal level and under the strict control of the relevant authorities.
In any case, without delving into specifics, it should be noted that the Russian state may find opportunities to organize such events in the direction of ensuring the demographic security of the country. It would not be shameful to involve public organizations that have long, at their own peril and risk, at their own expense, been working among the population of the country, promoting the values of family and childbirth, preventing the spread of Western values that are alien to Russian society. On the other hand, it is possible to use foreign experience, including inviting proven foreign specialists for consultations in the direction of improving the demographic policy of the Russian state.
But the state's main attention should be paid to information and propaganda policy. While consumer values are advertised in the media and cinema, the model of behavior of a “socialite” - a prostitute who does not have children - is portrayed as desirable for a woman, Russian men are denigrated, shown as losers from whom children cannot be born, even a threefold increase in maternal capital, the introduction of additional childbearing benefits will not improve the situation in the field of demographic security of the Russian state.
In the information sphere, the Russian state should take as a basis the policy of promoting a strong and large family, spreading the cult of fatherhood and motherhood, and increasing respect for men and women with children. Special television programs, Internet sites, and printed publications should be created that affirm family values. Moreover, the activities of these projects must be adequate and in demand in modern conditions, which will require additional involvement of specialists in the field of psychology, television and radio broadcasting, journalists, cultural and artistic figures. Accordingly, educational institutions should also implement policies aimed at promoting family values and correct models of sexual and marital behavior. Mechanisms can be developed to support young mothers in obtaining vocational or additional education on preferential terms. The Russian state must understand that without people there will be no state, without children there will be no future. It is people who are the main value of Russia, and the Russian authorities should take care of their worthy existence and reproduction.
Declining birth rate
Of all the changes observed today, the most important is the fall in the birth rate. In 2050, the global total fertility rate—in other words, the number of children a woman will bear during her childbearing years—will drop to 2.1. It corresponds to the so-called reproduction rate and varies slightly depending on infant mortality rates: in poor countries it is slightly higher. 2.1 is generally considered the magic number because when replicated at that rate, a country's population growth will slow down and eventually lead to demographic stabilization. This will likely be the first time in human history that the world's fertility rate will be 2.1 or lower. In all previous generations, in cases where the population stopped growing or even fell, the birth rate remained higher, another thing is that it was negated by higher infant mortality.
A fertility rate of 2.1 would define a staggering drop. In 1970 it was 4.45, and the average global family had four or five children. In 2010, the coefficient dropped sharply to 2.45 (see Figure 1.5). Almost half the world's population—3.2 billion out of 7 billion—lived in countries where the rate was 2.1. By 2050, almost all peoples outside Africa will live with an indicator no higher, or even lower, than 2.1, and even many African countries will show approximately the same replacement rate (the total ratio there may be higher, but it is offset by a higher infant mortality).
After 2050, population growth rates will slow down and begin to decline to zero. Already in 2010, the list of countries with negative fertility included not only states known for their low demographic growth, such as Japan and Russia, but also those most often associated with rapidly growing populations: Brazil, Tunisia, Thailand. Some countries are experiencing uneven rates: in Bangladesh, the birth rate halved between 1980 and 2000, and in Iran, the birth rate fell from 7 in 1984 to 1.9 in 2006.
The rate of decline in the future fertility rate, when it falls to 2.1, is likely to slow. In regions where it has long been lower - such as Northern Europe - fertility has already begun to recover and will continue to rise as people rediscover the joys of large families. In some areas of Africa, the decline in fertility has not been as steep as in other, wealthier continents. However, in some regions the decline will continue: by 2050, the birth rate in Brazil will fall to 1.7, in Ethiopia, where the figure is currently 3.9, will fall to 1.9.
Rice. 1.5. Family movement
Fertility rate, number of children per woman
Source: UN
The fall in the birth rate will lead to a number of demographic changes. It is quite obvious that this will cause a slowdown in the growth of the world's population. Growth rates have been falling for a long time, peaking between 1965 and 1970, when the annual growth rate was just over 2%, the only time in modern human history. However, even if the number of children changes in one generation, it takes more than one generation for the changes to affect the total population. This process takes approximately 20 years.
Due to demographic inertia, the number of “additional” people in the world after 1965–1970. continued to grow for another two decades, peaking in the late 1980s, when the total population grew by almost 90 million people annually. The growth rate remained relatively high after 1970. It only fell sharply in the 1990s, when the impact of low fertility finally began to be felt. An annual increase equal to almost 78 million people in 2010–2015 in the late 2030s. will drop to 52 million, to 30 million in the mid-2050s. and will amount to only a third of the increase in the late 1980s. By this time, the rate of annual population growth in the world for the first time since the beginning of the 19th century. will drop below 0.5%. The ongoing gigantic growth that began in Europe with the Industrial Revolution and spread to every corner of the world will end.
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